ATL: IRENE - Models

[NDG]

12z euro still looks very similar to last night's track but it speeds it up by a good 12 hrs.

[dmbthestone]

Ivan it misses Palm Beach, FL by about 20 miles or so yikes...

Is this closer to FL than the last runs?

[plasticup]

The models are bombing this thing. I don't understand why the NHC is putting out such tame forecasts.

[KWT]

120hrs ECM is simply an OUCH type forecast....

down to 952mbs and still trucking NNW, similar motion to the GFS. wind's in Florida not too bad.

Looks like a GA/SC threat and a BIG problem for the Bahamas as well...probably a major by 120hrs.

[WeatherEmperor]

Not that far off the east coast of FL. It looks to miss Palm Beach by about 25 miles or so. That is close enough to cause concern. Slight deviation to the left and landfall in FL.

[Ivanhater]

Good consensus today that this could big a BIG problem for South Carolina

[gatorcane]

120hrs ECM is simply an OUCH type forecast....

down to 952mbs and still trucking NNW, similar motion to the GFS. wind's in Florida not too bad.

Looks like a GA/SC threat and a BIG problem for the Bahamas as well...probably a major by 120hrs.

Based on that Euro run, hurricane force winds would be felt in SE Florida.

A slight west shift, not much, and direct hit in SE Florida.

[brunota2003]

The models are bombing this thing. I don't understand why the NHC is putting out such tame forecasts.

Because the NHC's forecast takes it over a ton of land, whereas the latest model runs barely do so.

[Ivanhater]

Looks HORRIBLE for Charleston this run

[Hurricaneman]

Also looks real bad for Palm Beach also

[KWT]

The models are bombing this thing. I don't understand why the NHC is putting out such tame forecasts.

Well the NHC track will very likely shift east this run to reflect the eastward adjustment of some models such as the HWRF and the CMC and as it does the system will get longer over water and thus the NHC forecast will be increased.

[SapphireSea]

The models are bombing this thing. I don't understand why the NHC is putting out such tame forecasts.

Because there is no certainty that the storm will strengthen that rapidly. Environment has been very conducive so far and only modest strengthening has occurred. The mountains and land interaction are a wildcard that can; as the models predict have little to no effect and have a major out there, or do what we've seen with Emily and Ernesto and deliver a crippling blow.

[Steve H.]

Hey Gator, don't have access to the 12z euro. How far does it show off Cape Canaveral?

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro is showing the once in a lifetime hit on South Carolina

[UpTheCreek]

Looks HORRIBLE for Charleston this run

Agreed, they are not fit for something like that. Would be bad for all of Carolinas too, IMO. What is an approx. intensity if it were down to a 952 pressure?

[blp]

1899 quite similar to our runs through 5 days.

[CrazyC83]

Looks HORRIBLE for Charleston this run

Agreed, they are not fit for something like that. Would be bad for all of Carolinas too, IMO. What is an approx. intensity if it were down to a 952 pressure?

At that latitude and size, about 100 kt.

[KWT]

Pattern on the ECM doesn't suggest recurve, it suggests a N/NNW track whether it turns, too much ridging to the west and east of the system to allow anything other then a N/NNW/NNE track...ity all comes down to where it turns in the first place.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Thats west of the 0z euro by about 50 miles

Looks like we might be seeing a westward trend again?

No Bella. All models today are showing a run up the EAST coast of Florida, threatening Georgia through the Carolinas.

[Ivanhater]

A very sad run