ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Portastorm]

Yeah unless something unusual happens and Don grows in size ... those of us desperate for rain in Texas can only hope that Don will usher in some higher PWATs this weekend and help to spur scattered convection.

[Stormcenter]

Per NHC the NW movement.



1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST. DON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A GENERAL MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DON SHOULD CROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY...APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST ON FRIDAY....AND REACH THE
TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

[ROCK]

Looks better than earlier...window of opportunity approaches...

[cycloneye]

From 10 AM CDT advisory.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS.

For those of us who dont know the places of Texas, does anyone has a graphic of the state to see where Port Mansfield and San Luis Pass are?

[HURAKAN]

[stormywaves]

From 10 AM CDT advisory.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS.

For those of us who dont know the places of Texas, does anyone has a graphic of the state to see where Port Mansfield and San Luis Pass are?

Not sure of Port Mansfield but San Luis Pass is like on the southwest end of Galveston Island. Okay just asked my wonderful dad he says Port Mansfield is near Padre Island. Hope this helps a little

[Portastorm]

The coverage area is essentially 80-85% of the entire Texas coast. San Luis Pass is near Galveston and Port Mansfield is about 50 miles north of Brownsville (southernmost tip of state).

[lrak]

I surf Port Mansfield and its jetty is right next to southern Baffin Bay. San Luis Pass I don't know.

[hurricanefloyd5]

A MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATION AT ISLA PEREZ IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 38 MPH...

[Dave]

264
URNT15 KNHC 281457
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 30 20110728
144800 2355N 08839W 8429 01585 0125 +164 +057 147038 039 030 001 00
144830 2357N 08839W 8431 01584 0124 +165 +056 146038 038 030 001 00
144900 2359N 08840W 8435 01579 0124 +163 +054 147039 039 030 001 00
144930 2401N 08840W 8429 01584 0123 +163 +052 146039 040 034 003 00
145000 2403N 08840W 8429 01585 0123 +164 +050 146038 039 033 000 00
145030 2404N 08840W 8435 01579 0122 +166 +048 147040 041 032 002 00
145100 2406N 08841W 8431 01582 0120 +169 +047 147041 042 033 000 03
145130 2408N 08841W 8432 01583 0122 +166 +048 144040 041 032 000 00
145200 2410N 08841W 8428 01583 0121 +165 +051 145041 042 033 002 00
145230 2412N 08841W 8432 01579 0119 +167 +052 147040 041 034 001 00
145300 2414N 08842W 8433 01580 0121 +165 +052 145041 042 035 001 03
145330 2416N 08842W 8430 01582 0121 +164 +052 144041 043 035 001 00
145400 2418N 08842W 8425 01584 0121 +163 +053 145042 044 035 001 03
145430 2420N 08843W 8430 01584 0125 +162 +051 145040 041 035 000 00
145500 2422N 08843W 8428 01589 0126 +164 +050 142041 042 034 000 03
145530 2423N 08843W 8430 01584 0127 +162 +051 143042 044 034 001 00
145600 2425N 08843W 8431 01584 0127 +163 +052 143042 043 036 002 00
145630 2427N 08844W 8432 01585 0127 +163 +052 143042 043 036 002 00
145700 2429N 08844W 8420 01596 0130 +160 +051 144043 045 037 005 00
145730 2431N 08844W 8428 01589 0126 +165 +049 141041 042 035 000 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Thanks to all the above.

[ajurcat]

I surf Port Mansfield and its jetty is right next to southern Baffin Bay. San Luis Pass I don't know.

San Luis Pass is across the bridge from the west end of Galveston Island.

[lrak]

I surf Port Mansfield and its jetty is right next to southern Baffin Bay. San Luis Pass I don't know.

San Luis Pass is across the bridge from the west end of Galveston Island.

No surf up there

[ROCK]

North of Corpus IMO...closer to matagorda and or San Luis pass...

[cycloneye]

10 AM CDT discussion came out very late.


TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
1000 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

THE CENTER OF DON REMAINS PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A
PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS TWICE EXTRAPOLATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 1001 MB. THE AIRCRAFT HAS ALSO REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 52 KT AND RELIABLE-LOOKING WINDS OF 35-40 KT FROM THE
SFMR. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/12. DON IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 36-48 HR.
WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...THERE HAS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NOW NORTH OF
CORPUS CHRISTI. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD
BUT STAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE NEW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF AND UKMET FORECAST TRACKS ARE ON
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.

ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN SHOW THAT DON IS EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR IS NOW FORECAST TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL. IN ADDITION...THE
CYCLONE IS ON THE EDGE OF AN AREA OF DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THESE FACTORS COULD AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION...AND
NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS DON BECOMING A
HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS
MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 24.1N 90.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 24.9N 91.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 26.1N 93.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 27.3N 96.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 28.5N 98.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1200Z 30.0N 102.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Frank2]

I'm sorry but I just can't too excited over a system that looks like this:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

now, the only issue as Dr. Knabb (TWC) said this morning is that very small systems do have more of an ability to weaken or strengthen very quickly, so that's one issue - but it sure doesn't look like much at this time, even on the half-mile resolution...

Frank

[KWT]

Per NHC the NW movement.

It becomes even more obvious when you look at where it was yesterday and compare it to now, long term motion clearly has been to the NW.

[cycloneye]

Excerpt from 10 AM CDT discussion:

THERE HAS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NOW NORTH OF
CORPUS CHRISTI. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD
BUT STAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE NEW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF AND UKMET FORECAST TRACKS ARE ON
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

High winds once again on the NE side, out of the convection and still getting solid 40kt FL winds, may well see the odd 50kt+ FL wind when it comes down through the convection just to the NE of the center.