ATL: IRENE - Models

[Swimdude]

By Tuesday/Wednesday it's probably out to sea with these east trends.

Nope. This isn't a recurve situation.

I admire your certainty, but if the models continue their trend, this could indeed be a recurve situation.

[Florida1118]

By Tuesday/Wednesday it's probably out to sea with these east trends.

Nope. This isn't a recurve situation.

I admire your certainty, but if the models continue their trend, this could indeed be a recurve situation.

Theres a High in the way. Irene is going to someone, but its not the fishes.

[AdamFirst]

By Tuesday/Wednesday it's probably out to sea with these east trends.

Nope. This isn't a recurve situation.

I admire your certainty, but if the models continue their trend, this could indeed be a recurve situation.

It's not.

The synoptics aren't allowing this to curve away from the coast. There's a giant ridge of high pressure that's acting as a road block.

[Steve H.]

Well, no. If they put it offshore no one would prepare. Most people are too damn lazy.

[Rainband]

in terms of the cone of error the models haven't really shifted all that much. Just saying some food for thought.

[SeminoleWind]

agreed not much of any chance of re-curve, ridge may just keep it on the Florida coast and then into South Carolina..
If she moves a little slower than forecast, say around 10 mph than this could get on the shores of Florida

[TwisterFanatic]

By Tuesday/Wednesday it's probably out to sea with these east trends.

Nope. This isn't a recurve situation.

I admire your certainty, but if the models continue their trend, this could indeed be a recurve situation.

This is about as far east as you'll see the Models get. The synoptic doesn't support a re-curve. There is no trough picking Irene up, a ridge will be building back in. Only reason we have seen these East shifts today is because of the LLC relocation last night to the north.

[Bocadude85]

Does anyone have the link of the animated track and cones of past storms?

[northjaxpro]

This afternoon's WFO AFD from NWS Wilmington, NC

AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD IS IRENE AND WHAT/IF
ANY IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE ILM AREA. WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP AS SERIES OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS DIG OVER THE EASTERN
US...ALLOWING THE STORM TO TURN NORTH. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED SHIFTING THE TRACK OF IRENE EAST...BUT THERE
HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWN IN THE GUIDANCE
AND CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS LOW. IN FACT THE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS HAS THE STORM MAKING LANDFALL ANYWHERE FROM THE EASTERN
GULF COAST TO MISSING THE EAST COAST AND RECURVING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE NEXT 24 TO 28 HOURS SHOULD PROVIDE A MUCH CLEARER
PICTURE.

[bamajammer4eva]

Maybe they should leave the track offshore till they know what effect Hispaniola and the first weakness are going to have on it? Its close enough that everyone on the east coast of Florida will hear about it and prepare.

With the track in place now, it appears to landfall in south Florida leading folks further north to believe they will see a weakening storm when actually it could a strengthening storm raking the entire coast just offshore.

[jlauderdal]

By Tuesday/Wednesday it's probably out to sea with these east trends.

Nope. This isn't a recurve situation.

I admire your certainty, but if the models continue their trend, this could indeed be a recurve situation.

their appears to be too much ridging in place for anything like that, might not hit florida but it looks like someone in the SE USA gets hit

[bamajammer4eva]

Does anyone have the link of the animated track and cones of past storms?

Just click the year and storm then click graphics archive
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/index.shtml

[northjaxpro]

Maybe they should leave the track offshore till they know what effect Hispaniola and the first weakness are going to have on it? Its close enough that everyone on the east coast of Florida will hear about it and prepare.

With the track in place now, it appears to landfall in south Florida leading folks further north to believe they will see a weakening storm when actually it could a strengthening storm raking the entire coast just offshore.

That is correct. This is either going be a David '79 type scenario or Floyd '99 type scenario in terms of the track in a few days. Just have to wait and see how this evolves. Land interaction or lack thereof will be the telling factor with Irene.

[StormClouds63]

As I remember, the Floyd scenario in 1999 involved a pretty strong mid-September trough. However, I sure hope for all the folks in FL and SE U.S. that the results are the same (minus the huge traffic jams).

[blp]

For those that remember Floyd. Here is the track below. It never did come as close to S.Fla as 12z models have Irene. I remember Floyd being a close call so this will be even closer.

[Ivanhater]

[northjaxpro]

Well, I think the David '79 track would probably be the best reference to use potentially with Irene in regards to the potential track she may take in a few days. Plus David was on a very similar track through the Caribbean as Irene is currently as well.

[Blown Away]

delete

[KWT]

Ivanhater, what is impressive now is the agreement that this won't go over Cuba and once it emerges from Hispaniola its got a nearly clean run when it comes to strengthening in 48-60hrs till landfall...

The CMC is a right outlier BUT even that run is probably close enough to the Outer Banks at that strength to cause signicant problems.

[AdamFirst]

Looks like those models that take it into the northeast Bahamas well off the Florida coast take it north of Puerto Rico.

On its current trajectory thats not happrning.