ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 101839
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1839 UTC WED AUG 10 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110810 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110810  1800   110811  0600   110811  1800   110812  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.3N  30.7W   13.2N  32.8W   14.0N  35.3W   14.8N  38.0W
BAMD    12.3N  30.7W   13.1N  33.0W   14.0N  35.8W   14.8N  38.8W
BAMM    12.3N  30.7W   13.3N  33.0W   14.2N  35.6W   15.1N  38.4W
LBAR    12.3N  30.7W   12.8N  32.6W   13.8N  35.4W   14.8N  38.8W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          44KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          44KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110812  1800   110813  1800   110814  1800   110815  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.7N  41.1W   18.0N  48.5W   21.0N  56.5W   23.8N  63.9W
BAMD    15.6N  42.0W   17.6N  48.1W   19.9N  52.9W   21.9N  57.3W
BAMM    16.1N  41.7W   18.4N  48.7W   21.0N  55.4W   23.4N  61.5W
LBAR    15.7N  42.5W   17.7N  50.1W   19.4N  57.1W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        51KTS          60KTS          56KTS          52KTS
DSHP        51KTS          60KTS          56KTS          52KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.3N LONCUR =  30.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  12.2N LONM12 =  29.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  12.1N LONM24 =  27.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  275NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[cycloneye]

Looking at the TWO Yellow Polygon, pretty clear the NHC is not sure if 92L/Pouch 14L will be it's own entity or will merge w/ the wave behind it, Pouch 15L. I'm leaning towards the merge w/ a good moisture front to protect this area from the dry/duse air to the west.

To clarify,new pouch P15L is the one closer to the coast of Africa around 10W so no merge will occur.

Ok, sorry Luis. Looking at the TWO polygon it's clear they circled both areas, so maybe one area will dominate over time?

Now is all cleared up as 93L is up.

[Aric Dunn]

93L looks very impressive... and there may actually be some interaction between 92L and 93L being that they are in close proximity... this of course if they both decide to develop.

[bamajammer4eva]

93L looks very impressive... and there may actually be some interaction between 92L and 93L being that they are in close proximity... this of course if they both decide to develop.

12z GFS developed both of them as separate storms

[Aric Dunn]

93L looks very impressive... and there may actually be some interaction between 92L and 93L being that they are in close proximity... this of course if they both decide to develop.

12z GFS developed both of them as separate storms

yeah they will be separate.. but 5 meant interactions as in their circulations and storm motion

[SouthFloridawx]

Pic before the sun goes down...

[Portastorm]

Hey gang ... this is the last friendly reminder. When you post an image, please include a sentence or two (or whatever is appropriate) to place the image in context of the ongoing discussion.

From now on (as we did during busier times this tropical season), we will be deleting posts which include an image only.

Thanks!

[South Texas Storms]

Wow crazy run by the 18z GFS with both 92L and 93L! If someone could post images or explain better that would be great as I am going to cook dinner now.

[Vortex]

18Z GFS much further west and just off the FL coast...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif

[Vortex]

Landfall FL, strong ridging well established to the north in the long term....this will be need to be watched very closely. GFS has been hiniting at stout ridging along the east coast for several runs now....



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_276l.gif

[Vortex]

For those looking for a long tracker guidance is screaming both 92 and 93...Next 10 days will keep us very busy...

[Vortex]

Very long range 2nd landfall near pensacola and into Georgia...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

[Macrocane]

So now that the GFS is showing that, the people who said that yesterday's FIM was not reliable are going to say that GFS is not reliable either? ...well it's still in the very long range and surely the track will suffer several changes run after run, anyway it's a sign that people in those areas should monitor the situation, just my unofficial opinion.

[Kory]

:uarrow: So now that the GFS is showing that, the people who said that yesterday's FIM was not reliable are going to say that GFS is not reliable either?...well it's still in the very long range and surely the track will suffer several changes run after run, anyway it's a sign that people in those areas should monitor the situation, just my unofficial opinion.

Nothing is reliable in the long range...especially when we are looking at 300+ hours out.

[Macrocane]

Nothing is reliable in the long range...especially when we are looking at 300+ hours out.

Exactly, but it's not because one model is bad it's because all models are bad at that time frame, but as I've said it would be good to take it into account. It will be very interesting to see how the models change with every run it's one of the exciting things about tropical weather, obviously if the track keeps changing 3 days before landfall that's not exciting that's scary.

[painkillerr]

Hey gang ... this is the last friendly reminder. When you post an image, please include a sentence or two (or whatever is appropriate) to place the image in context of the ongoing discussion.

From now on (as we did during busier times this tropical season), we will be deleting posts which include an image only.

Thanks!

Suddenly this forum has gone silent!

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE REMNANTS OF EMILY ARE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT
10 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS
AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A NEW AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS EMERGED FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA
AND IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[OuterBanker]

LOL, I just saw the 18z GFS. Seems a double threat. 92L making a crazy loop off Fl through Fl and into Pensacola. 93L slams into the NC coast. people I disagree with heaven (if we only could get something into TX too).

Should I post this in both?

[HurricaneFan]

Why is 92L moving slow when compared to pass Tropical Waves?Earlier Tropical Waves were moving 15 to 20mph and even 20 to 25mph,but 92L is only moving 10 to 15mph.

[cycloneye]

LOL, I just saw the 18z GFS. Seems a double threat. 92L making a crazy loop off Fl through Fl and into Pensacola. 93L slams into the NC coast. people I disagree with heaven (if we only could get something into TX too).

Should I post this in both?

You can post it at 93L models thread if you take out the reference to 92L.