WPAC: ROKE - Post-Tropical (18W)

[StormingB81]

been going NW..how crazy would it be if this thing turned around..drunken storm cant make up its mind its been all over

[Typhoon Hunter]

been going NW..how crazy would it be if this thing turned around..drunken storm cant make up its mind its been all over

Lol I'm not sure who's crazier, the storm or you

Glad you didn't live in northern Luzon when it got hit by typhoon Parma in 2009, you'd have gone mad! Amami oshima might get hammered by this one so hope everyone in its path stays safe!

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 18W (ROKE) WARNING NR 033
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 18W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 28.3N 130.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.3N 130.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 29.5N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 31.2N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 34.3N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 39.0N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 48.1N 157.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 28.6N 130.7E.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM SOUTHWEST
OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED JUST EAST OF NORTHWARD AT 06 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (SONCA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Infdidoll]

Roke is no friend of mine and can take its happy arse up NE after ruining the entire weekend, canceling all our plans for fear of being hit, and then it just sat there doing nothing. If you're going to come that close, hit us and give us a day off work, geez!

LOL - But in seriousness, Kakeroma-jima, Kikai-shima taking a serious beating right now and I will be praying those who do live on those islands have the same peace of mind we have when typhoons roll through. Hope it weakens before it takes a tour of mainland, too!

[dexterlabio]

Did that eye just appear all of a sudden? This afternoon I wasn't really expecting a decent eye to come out of this storm because it was a bit asymmetrical. No wonder, this basin has always caught us by surprise. Up for our latest typhoon!


TY 1115 (ROKE)
Issued at 14:40 UTC, 19 September 2011

<Analyses at 19/14 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N28°10'(28.2°)
E130°10'(130.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL370km(200NM)

<Estimate for 19/15 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N28°20'(28.3°)
E130°10'(130.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 20/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N29°00'(29.0°)
E130°40'(130.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 20/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N29°50'(29.8°)
E131°50'(131.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 21/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N36°05'(36.1°)
E139°25'(139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 40km/h(22kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 22/12 UTC>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N46°30'(46.5°)
E151°25'(151.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 65km/h(34kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 600km(325NM)

[HURAKAN]

Latest track from JTWC

[dexterlabio]

Then I just realized that this is in fact a threat to land unlike Sonca. Another storm to impact Japan, huh... Keep safe!

Is Rob's area gonna be affected by the storm?

[RobWESTPACWX]

Put a video together on Roke today....

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FkzVrAWjb3o[/youtube]

[Extratropical94]

Looking veeery impressive:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Latest Dvorak from CIMSS (University of Wisconsin)

Code: Select all

 ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  19 SEP 2011    Time : 160000 UTC
      Lat :   28:14:56 N     Lon :  130:16:34 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.8 / 942.8mb/109.8kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                5.8     6.0     6.0

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

 Center Temp : -12.1C    Cloud Region Temp : -67.4C

 Scene Type : EYE 


Latest ssd.noaa Dvorak:

ADT: 2011SEP19 160100 5.3 945.0/ -1.2 / 97.2 5.3 5.4 5.9 2.2T/6hr OFF OFF -12.09 -67.36 EYE 17 IR 28.20 -130.28 COMBO
945 mb, 97 knots

19/1501 UTC 28.2N 130.3E T5.5/5.5 ROKE -- West - 100 knots one-minute (Cat. 3)

Based on that bunch of numbers, I think a high end cat. 2/borderline cat.3 would certainly be reasonable, I would suggest 95 knots for JTWC and 80 knots for JMA.

This, of course, is my opinion and does not resemble an official forecast/analysis with professional reasoning.

[Chacor]

Definitely does look like a fairly well developed typhoon.

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Typhoon.

TY 1115 (ROKE)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 19 September 2011
<Analyses at 19/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N28°10'(28.2°)
E130°35'(130.6°)
Direction and speed of movement E Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE460km(250NM)
NW370km(200NM)

[phwxenthusiast]

"only" 80kts for JTWC on their upcoming 21z update...

i wish they raise it to at least 85kts though, looking too good for a Cat 1, just my opinion

[Chacor]

JMA upgrades to Typhoon.

TY 1115 (ROKE)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 19 September 2011
<Analyses at 19/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N28°10'(28.2°)
E130°35'(130.6°)
Direction and speed of movement E Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE460km(250NM)
NW370km(200NM)

They had it as a typhoon a whole six hours before that.

[StormingB81]

been going NW..how crazy would it be if this thing turned around..drunken storm cant make up its mind its been all over

Lol I'm not sure who's crazier, the storm or you

Glad you didn't live in northern Luzon when it got hit by typhoon Parma in 2009, you'd have gone mad! Amami oshima might get hammered by this one so hope everyone in its path stays safe!

LOL @ the crazy part....and no I wouldnt have been mad..I was mad during Mufia....Just thinking what a crazy path this has taken...I know alot of people are mad because everything was canceeled over the weekend

[phwxenthusiast]

"only" 80kts for JTWC on their upcoming 21z update...

i wish they raise it to at least 85kts though, looking too good for a Cat 1, just my opinion

oops i was wrong, it's now 100kts sustained...

[Infdidoll]

Yeah, about the equivalent of a Category 3...Where the heck did this come from?

[RobWESTPACWX]

Yeah, about the equivalent of a Category 3...Where the heck did this come from?

Holy **** ; Meteorologically Speaking that is.



Also JMA about 30kts weaker at 70kts still.

Bad news is it is making a line towards the area struck by Talas, that is going to be very bad news

[RobWESTPACWX]

Yikes

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yeah, about the equivalent of a Category 3...Where the heck did this come from?

Actually if you look back at the old ECMWF charts from a few days ago it really showed Roke exploding nicely one it started the turn to the NE. I didn't think it would happen and none of the agencies did either. Well done ECMWF.

Interesting to see how strong JMA have this at 00z, I'd think at least 80kts 10 min.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I know it is still happening, but Roke is going to be one of those storms that needs to be looked and a lessons learned study needs to be put together, I think it was a fail all around on this on this one. I'm not calling anyone out though, I'm including myself on this fail, at least I hope I'm right on this going ET quickly and weakening.