ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[JPmia]

Looks like it will take longer to develop.. not looking very organized this morning. I'm sure that means models will change again today!

[KWT]

Just had a look and it looks ok, not amaZing but it's hardly falling to bits like some think... LL flow must slow down but the key thing is it's not a double system anymore.

[wxman57]

Pressure center is displaced SW of the convection, as verified by recon. Maybe 14N/58.3W. Convection does appear to be building closer to the weak LLC. If that happens, then it will become Emily. But it's very disorganized presently.

[GCANE]

Hmmm related?

Space Weather News for July 30, 2011
http://spaceweather.com

Solar and geomagnetic activity continues to intensify on July 30th. The day began with an almost-X class solar flare from big sunspot 1261. This was followed by an unrelated geomagnetic storm (magnitude Kp=5) prompted by a fluctuation in the solar wind. At the time this alert is being issued (July 30th @ 2200 UT) the geomagnetic storm is still underway. High-latitude sky watchers, especially in the southern hemisphere where skies are winter-dark, should be alert for auroras.

I've never bought into the possibility that solar weather affects terrestrial weather, but I do have an open mind. Has there been any studies or actual research done into any correlations with these?

I would imagine if the tropopause is being depressed the effect would be to generally lower heights.

I have been hearing mention of this for a number of years now. Not a lot of peer reviewed papers concerning this however.

I thought I would throw it out since it is an opportune time with the heightened solar activity to see if in fact there is a correlation with TC development.

Thanks for the Space Weather comments and the open mind.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011401
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 30 20110801
135100 1339N 05643W 9772 00319 0132 +237 +219 123029 031 028 000 03
135130 1340N 05645W 9769 00320 0131 +240 +219 124029 029 028 000 03
135200 1341N 05647W 9768 00320 0131 +236 +219 123029 030 030 000 03
135230 1342N 05649W 9771 00318 0130 +240 +218 121032 033 030 000 03
135300 1344N 05650W 9772 00315 0129 +240 +218 126034 034 032 000 03
135330 1345N 05652W 9777 00311 0130 +235 +218 125035 035 031 000 03
135400 1346N 05654W 9768 00319 0130 +236 +218 124036 037 033 000 03
135430 1347N 05656W 9772 00318 0132 +233 +218 123034 036 033 000 03
135500 1349N 05658W 9771 00317 0131 +230 +217 122033 033 035 000 03
135530 1350N 05700W 9767 00320 0132 +230 +217 124034 034 035 000 03
135600 1351N 05701W 9772 00316 0130 +228 +216 125033 034 037 000 03
135630 1352N 05703W 9773 00312 0129 +228 +215 125037 039 039 002 03
135700 1354N 05705W 9768 00315 0128 +222 +213 123038 039 /// /// 03
135730 1355N 05707W 9769 00314 0128 +222 +209 122037 038 /// /// 03
135800 1356N 05709W 9777 00309 0128 +224 +205 120037 037 /// /// 03
135830 1358N 05710W 9767 00318 0128 +225 +200 120037 038 /// /// 03
135900 1359N 05712W 9776 00309 0129 +230 +198 119036 037 /// /// 03
135930 1401N 05713W 9768 00318 0130 +228 +197 117035 036 /// /// 03
140000 1402N 05715W 9773 00314 0130 +226 +199 115034 035 030 000 03
140030 1404N 05716W 9771 00316 0131 +225 +201 115035 036 031 000 03
$$
At 13:51:00Z (first observation), the observation was 198 miles (319 km) between the ENE and E (79°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 14:00:30Z (last observation), the observation was 171 miles (276 km) to the ENE (67°) from Bridgetown, Barbados

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 011359
97779 13494 20136 56600 03100 12030 24228 /0013
41125
RMK AF304 03EEA INVEST OB 10

[underthwx]

Good morning.......with this system with slower to evolve to the next level....how much more westward can it track? Does a northward track seem less likely in your minds? Which model seems most consistent so far.

[tolakram]

Last frame of the MIMIC-TPW loop. best look on this view that it's had for days. Not sure this means organization.

[Bocadude85]

Pressure center is displaced SW of the convection, as verified by recon. Maybe 14N/58.3W. Convection does appear to be building closer to the weak LLC. If that happens, then it will become Emily. But it's very disorganized presently.

What are you thoughts on the future of this system wxman57?

[AdamFirst]

The tropical wave is still heading west-northwest as a whole even though, as wxman alluded to, the center may have reformed a bit to the south.

I think it's about time to see what 91L can do all by itself since it's not competing with a second blob anymore...

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011411
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 31 20110801
140100 1406N 05718W 9773 00314 0131 +225 +203 114034 035 033 001 03
140130 1407N 05719W 9769 00316 0130 +225 +205 116033 035 035 000 03
140200 1409N 05721W 9766 00318 0128 +225 +207 118036 036 034 000 03
140230 1410N 05722W 9772 00313 0129 +226 +208 119037 037 036 001 00
140300 1412N 05724W 9774 00313 0129 +226 +209 120036 036 037 000 03
140330 1414N 05725W 9767 00318 0129 +225 +210 122037 037 036 001 03
140400 1415N 05727W 9772 00314 0129 +225 +210 120038 038 035 000 03
140430 1417N 05728W 9767 00318 0129 +225 +209 118036 037 034 000 03
140500 1418N 05730W 9771 00313 0128 +226 +207 120034 034 032 000 03
140530 1419N 05732W 9773 00311 0127 +226 +206 119034 035 035 001 03
140600 1420N 05734W 9765 00318 0125 +225 +204 120034 035 035 000 00
140630 1421N 05736W 9773 00310 0126 +225 +203 117033 033 033 000 03
140700 1422N 05738W 9771 00312 0126 +227 +202 116035 036 032 000 03
140730 1423N 05740W 9769 00314 0126 +224 +201 116037 038 031 000 00
140800 1424N 05743W 9772 00310 0125 +230 +201 120038 039 034 000 03
140830 1425N 05745W 9774 00307 0124 +234 +201 120037 038 037 000 03
140900 1426N 05747W 9767 00315 0124 +230 +202 118038 039 035 000 03
140930 1426N 05749W 9780 00302 0124 +230 +205 115036 037 034 000 03
141000 1427N 05751W 9764 00316 0124 +230 +209 114034 035 032 000 03
141030 1428N 05753W 9766 00315 0124 +230 +211 114033 034 032 000 03
$$
;

At 14:01:00Z (first observation), the observation was 170 miles (274 km) to the ENE (66°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 14:10:30Z (last observation), the observation was 150 miles (241 km) to the NE (51°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

[artist]

http://tiny.cc/hlceb

[Aric Dunn]

Abnormal ionospheric heating continues due to solar activity.

It is becoming apparent to me that this effect is pushing down on the circulation of 91L and inhibiting development.

Hmmm related?

Space Weather News for July 30, 2011
http://spaceweather.com

Solar and geomagnetic activity continues to intensify on July 30th. The day began with an almost-X class solar flare from big sunspot 1261. This was followed by an unrelated geomagnetic storm (magnitude Kp=5) prompted by a fluctuation in the solar wind. At the time this alert is being issued (July 30th @ 2200 UT) the geomagnetic storm is still underway. High-latitude sky watchers, especially in the southern hemisphere where skies are winter-dark, should be alert for auroras.

I've never bought into the possibility that solar weather affects terrestrial weather, but I do have an open mind. Has there been any studies or actual research done into any correlations with these?

I would imagine if the tropopause is being depressed the effect would be to generally lower heights.

It actually does. but at a very slow process. we are not going to get a solar flare that is going to shoot high energy particles in our atmosphere like that. the earths magnetic field protects us from such events. for instance the particles cant hit a complex of t'storms and collapse them. first off the the particles would pass right through the clouds with very little interaction.

[Aric Dunn]

Pressure center is displaced SW of the convection, as verified by recon. Maybe 14N/58.3W. Convection does appear to be building closer to the weak LLC. If that happens, then it will become Emily. But it's very disorganized presently.

basically the same spot as yesterday afternoon.

[CrazyC83]

All we know is that if an LLC is found, it is Emily immediately as Recon supports 35-40 kt.

[SouthDadeFish]

All we know is that if an LLC is found, it is Emily immediately as Recon supports 35-40 kt.

I haven't seen winds that strong? Where did they have 40+ knot flight level winds?

[Boriken]

Yeah the only 100% sure is that death will catch us some day.
edit: My Grammar

[Aric Dunn]

Hmmm related?

Space Weather News for July 30, 2011
http://spaceweather.com

Solar and geomagnetic activity continues to intensify on July 30th. The day began with an almost-X class solar flare from big sunspot 1261. This was followed by an unrelated geomagnetic storm (magnitude Kp=5) prompted by a fluctuation in the solar wind. At the time this alert is being issued (July 30th @ 2200 UT) the geomagnetic storm is still underway. High-latitude sky watchers, especially in the southern hemisphere where skies are winter-dark, should be alert for auroras.

I've never bought into the possibility that solar weather affects terrestrial weather, but I do have an open mind. Has there been any studies or actual research done into any correlations with these?

I would imagine if the tropopause is being depressed the effect would be to generally lower heights.

I have been hearing mention of this for a number of years now. Not a lot of peer reviewed papers concerning this however.

I thought I would throw it out since it is an opportune time with the heightened solar activity to see if in fact there is a correlation with TC development.

Thanks for the Space Weather comments and the open mind.

I like how you always look for new theories that could effect TC space weather and our atmosphere is exactly what my degree is hehe.. Space Physics. I love all that stuff keep it coming.

[CrazyC83]

All we know is that if an LLC is found, it is Emily immediately as Recon supports 35-40 kt.

I haven't seen winds that strong? Where did they have 40+ knot flight level winds?

SFMR winds have been up to 39 kt I believe.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, Florida is no doubt in play if you look at that latest model plot. Let's hope the storm stays weak...

I totally give up on my opinion whether it's going to recurve or not, because right now I have absolutely no idea.. Earlier I thought for sure a recurve, but I aslo expected a tropical storm by now..... .So I'm just going to sit back and let nature take it's course.....