ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

Bryan Norcross says the slower Irene moves the less of a northward pull the troughs will have on her.

[Kohlecane]

Bryan Norcross says the slower Irene moves the less of a northward pull the troughs will have on her.

oh boy

[Stephanie]

From what I remember, if there's a slowdown, it could also mean a turn.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220149
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 23 20110822
013900 1848N 06441W 8424 01570 //// +138 //// 109039 046 043 011 01
013930 1846N 06443W 8447 01547 //// +135 //// 116042 046 044 023 01
014000 1845N 06444W 8419 01573 //// +132 //// 105029 034 043 021 01
014030 1844N 06445W 8436 01560 //// +144 //// 119041 043 031 008 01
014100 1842N 06446W 8433 01559 0096 +159 //// 110042 044 027 002 01
014130 1841N 06447W 8436 01558 0094 +162 +159 110043 048 029 001 00
014200 1839N 06448W 8430 01563 0095 +160 +157 109043 044 029 001 00
014230 1838N 06449W 8433 01558 0096 +155 //// 111043 044 029 000 01
014300 1837N 06450W 8433 01557 0094 +156 //// 111046 048 031 004 01
014330 1835N 06451W 8434 01554 0095 +152 //// 110048 049 036 005 01
014400 1834N 06452W 8430 01557 //// +141 //// 108049 052 039 008 05
014430 1833N 06454W 8416 01564 //// +136 //// 107043 049 048 022 05
014500 1832N 06455W 8454 01530 //// +136 //// 111038 049 053 031 05
014530 1831N 06457W 8432 01551 //// +131 //// 108047 049 038 015 01
014600 1830N 06458W 8432 01551 0091 +141 //// 111045 046 038 007 01
014630 1828N 06500W 8429 01555 0090 +149 //// 113046 047 039 008 01
014700 1827N 06501W 8435 01546 0087 +150 //// 114047 048 039 008 01
014730 1826N 06502W 8429 01548 0081 +153 //// 115053 054 039 008 01
014800 1825N 06504W 8430 01544 0084 +145 //// 113053 055 037 009 01
014830 1824N 06505W 8433 01540 0085 +142 //// 111050 051 036 012 01
$$
;

[gatorcane]

Bryan Norcross says the slower Irene moves the less of a northward pull the troughs will have on her.

oh boy

I think he means the slower it moves, the less likely it could make a connection with the trough downstream otherwise it does not make sense

[brunota2003]

She's really getting her wrap on tonight!

[SouthDadeFish]

From what I remember, if there's a slowdown, it could also mean a turn.

That is usually the case because a slow down is often due to weakening steering currents. The slow down can imply a turn if there is trough eroding a ridge, which weakens the steering currents before the trough picks up the storm. However in this case, I believe she slowed down a little because she is still trying to organize an inner core. Each burst of convection tugs at her center.

[SouthDadeFish]

Bryan Norcross says the slower Irene moves the less of a northward pull the troughs will have on her.

oh boy

I think he means the slower it moves, the less likely it could make a connection with the trough downstream otherwise it does not make sense

yes sorry if I was unclear.

[Dave]

[Kohlecane]

Bryan Norcross says the slower Irene moves the less of a northward pull the troughs will have on her.

oh boy

I think he means the slower it moves, the less likely it could make a connection with the trough downstream otherwise it does not make sense

Gotcha thanks Gator

[S2K1]

She likes St. Croix

[Stephanie]

From what I remember, if there's a slowdown, it could also mean a turn.

That is usually the case because a slow down is often due to weakening steering currents. The slow down can imply a turn if there is trough eroding a ridge, which weakens the steering currents before the trough picks up the storm. However in this case, I believe she slowed down a little because she is still trying to organize an inner core. Each burst of convection tugs at her center.

Thanks for the clarification.

[ozonepete]

just got back guys...Is it still going to go right over DR hatti???

Since it's crossing PR and still going at 285 degrees, it may well move parallel but just north of the north coast of DR. If that happens it may not weaken much at all. The possibility is getting more likely.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[northjaxpro]

Irene is establishing her inner core tonight. She has slowed considerably since the early afternoon and may be moving only at around 10 mph or so currently.

[cycloneye]

Is a surprise that power came back to my area at this point when many bands are moving thru PR and that is why I am posting this. I see that Irene is organizing and slowing down,and that means more winds and more prolonged rains. I say again after my post earlier that I am safe in my house. Let's see when I come back as the power is restored in the aftermath. Sign off.

[cpdaman]

Bryan Norcross says the slower Irene moves the less of a northward pull the troughs will have on her.

Norcross is a five star met

[northjaxpro]

Is a surprise that power came back to my area at this point when many bands are moving thru PR and that is why I am posting this. I see that Irene is organizing and slowing down,and that means more winds and more prolonged rains. I say again after my post earlier that I an safe in my house. Let's see when I come back as the power is restored in the aftermath. Sign off.

Hello Luis. Glad to know that you are safe down there and that at least for now, your power is back on up and running!

[SouthDadeFish]

Latest IR:



Very cold cloud tops continue to fire over the center.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220159
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 24 20110822
014900 1822N 06507W 8431 01541 0081 +145 //// 108050 051 040 012 05
014930 1821N 06507W 8435 01535 0074 +150 //// 108053 053 043 013 05
015000 1820N 06508W 8432 01534 0069 +154 //// 109055 056 044 005 01
015030 1818N 06509W 8436 01528 0069 +150 //// 106057 057 044 006 01
015100 1816N 06509W 8433 01525 //// +139 //// 105054 055 047 009 01
015130 1815N 06510W 8428 01526 //// +134 //// 100055 062 048 018 01
015200 1813N 06510W 8440 01508 //// +130 //// 101062 063 053 023 01
015230 1812N 06511W 8443 01497 //// +126 //// 099061 061 058 024 05
015300 1810N 06512W 8429 01506 //// +131 //// 095062 065 060 020 05
015330 1809N 06512W 8425 01505 //// +137 //// 104064 067 057 016 01
015400 1807N 06513W 8439 01487 //// +153 //// 115058 059 061 019 01
015430 1806N 06514W 8446 01465 //// +142 //// 113060 062 066 040 01
015500 1804N 06514W 8416 01491 //// +144 //// 108061 063 062 030 01
015530 1803N 06515W 8427 01468 //// +155 //// 118052 058 055 020 01
015600 1801N 06515W 8443 01447 //// +173 //// 124044 045 054 011 05
015630 1800N 06516W 8433 01451 //// +176 //// 127034 040 041 007 05
015700 1759N 06517W 8433 01445 9948 +184 //// 123022 025 033 002 01
015730 1757N 06518W 8434 01444 9944 +189 //// 108016 016 024 001 01
015800 1756N 06519W 8434 01442 9946 +186 //// 096013 015 024 002 05
015830 1754N 06519W 8435 01440 9940 +193 +188 082010 011 022 001 03
$$
;

67 kt FL, 66 kt SFMR. Pressure so far 994mb.

[brunota2003]

This next set of obs from the recon aircraft should be going through the northern eyewall (the strongest part right now), and should have the highest wind readings yet.