ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

SapphireSea · #2621 Postby **SapphireSea** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:44 am

No doubt that Katia is probobly a cat 3 by now. But, storms with large eyes are usually weaker than what satellite estimates would indicate. I'd say it's probably at 105 KT right now.

#2622 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:50 am

Katia's eye isn't nearly as large as was just two hours ago... Raw T Numbers of 6.9 is borderline cat 5 btw.

#2623 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:58 am

Best looking cat 2 of all-time?

Cranica · #2624 Postby **Cranica** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:04 pm

Always beautiful when a storm gets a nice outflow channel. That ULL to her northeast is venting her pretty spectacularly, no way this isn't a major now.

underthwx · #2625 Postby **underthwx** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:04 pm

when exactly is Katia going to start turning?...

#2626 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:05 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 SEP 2011 Time : 154500 UTC
Lat : 24:41:31 N Lon : 63:25:29 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 954.6mb/107.2kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 34 km

Center Temp : +12.5C Cloud Region Temp : -69.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 131km
- Environmental MSLP : 1015mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.6 degrees

#2627 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:06 pm

I'd put out a Special Advisory now personally. My guess is 110 kt.

#2628 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:08 pm

Stadium effect beginning?

#2629 Postby **AdamFirst** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:13 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I'd put out a Special Advisory now personally. My guess is 110 kt.

What for?

Katia's not threatening any land masses...it can wait until 5.

#2630 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:17 pm

AdamFirst wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I'd put out a Special Advisory now personally. My guess is 110 kt.

What for?

Katia's not threatening any land masses...it can wait until 5.

It's over the official forecast peak intensity (105 kt) if 110 or higher.

#2631 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:17 pm

AdamFirst wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I'd put out a Special Advisory now personally. My guess is 110 kt.

What for?

Katia's not threatening any land masses...it can wait until 5.

They still do it if a storm rapidly intensifies. I remember they did it for Ivan in 2004 when he became a cat 4 way out in the Atlantic.

Edit: I just checked, and they did it when he went from a cat 1 to a cat 3. I guess you could say he would be threatening the islands in a few days when the special advisory was issued.

pricetag56 · #2632 Postby **pricetag56** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:17 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Stadium effect beginning?

http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/6342/282f.jpg

beautiful looking hurricane definately major hurricane now

#2633 Postby **Extratropical94** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:24 pm

Latest SSD: 2011SEP05 164500 6.4 937.4/ -0.2 /124.6 6.4 6.5 6.5

Latest CIMSS:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 950.2mb/112.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.5 6.5

bobbisboy · #2634 Postby **bobbisboy** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:28 pm

clfenwi wrote:A couple of shots from the 12Z GFS. Has Katia perfectly splitting Bermuda and the east coast, then turning right a bit south of Nova Scotia

http://img153.imageshack.us/img153/2020/090412gfs78h.gif

http://img809.imageshack.us/img809/6573/090412gfs102h.gif

still seems this track depends just where that cut low is... if it's further south and west... you'd get a much closer track though still probably
offshore.....

oceancounty · #2635 Postby **oceancounty** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:40 pm

Wow! That eye is amazing! A great looking storm. Hopefully she will stay out to sea and not threaten any land.

#2636 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:06 pm

05/1745 UTC 24.8N 63.3W T5.5/5.5 KATIA -- Atlantic

rainstorm · #2637 Postby **rainstorm** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:11 pm

i have a feeling the euro will shift katia west a bit

KWT · #2638 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:20 pm

Probably will go either to 110-115kts mnext advisory, looks like its RI'd a little in the last 12hrs based on the presentation.

Getting a really classic look now!

#2639 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:43 pm

AL, 12, 2011090518, , BEST, 0, 248N, 634W, 100, 959, HU,

#2640 Postby **Extratropical94** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:48 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:AL, 12, 2011090518, , BEST, 0, 248N, 634W, 100, 959, HU,

Seems a little too conservative. I hope that the NHC doesn't use that values at 5pm.

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