ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

Well they used the 66 knot SFMR in the VDM. Could be Hurricane Irene I guess, but I doubt it.

[pgoss11]

I would pay attention to the apparent trend of this storm slowing down...I don't think that was expected. Sometimes that means a change in overall direction is coming but the positions of the HPs to the east and north don't seem to be the reason. Can anyone account for this slowdown?

Someone said that possibly because the core is strengthening, causing some tugging of the storm's center, contributing to the slow down.

[brunota2003]

I wish they could of made it through the strongest part of the eyewall just before it pushed onshore of that island...they missed it just to the East I believe.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220219
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 26 20110822
020900 1728N 06544W 8429 01538 0065 +160 //// 334035 036 030 000 01
020930 1727N 06545W 8424 01548 //// +145 //// 326031 035 031 005 01
021000 1726N 06546W 8432 01542 //// +143 //// 332029 034 036 009 01
021030 1724N 06547W 8436 01536 //// +140 //// 333037 038 033 005 01
021100 1723N 06549W 8433 01540 //// +144 //// 335033 034 033 004 01
021130 1722N 06550W 8442 01535 0073 +156 //// 333029 030 031 003 01
021200 1721N 06551W 8433 01545 0074 +164 //// 345030 031 029 000 01
021230 1720N 06552W 8432 01548 0075 +164 //// 343029 031 026 000 01
021300 1718N 06554W 8433 01548 0078 +163 +163 342029 030 027 000 00
021330 1717N 06555W 8430 01551 0081 +161 //// 343028 029 027 001 01
021400 1716N 06556W 8431 01552 0079 +166 +162 342027 028 024 000 00
021430 1715N 06558W 8432 01552 0079 +168 +158 342028 029 021 000 00
021500 1713N 06559W 8429 01556 0080 +167 +162 343030 030 022 000 00
021530 1712N 06600W 8437 01548 0083 +165 +162 344029 030 020 000 00
021600 1711N 06601W 8433 01556 0081 +170 +157 341028 029 021 000 00
021630 1710N 06603W 8433 01554 0085 +167 +160 342029 030 021 000 00
021700 1709N 06604W 8431 01557 0086 +165 +162 344028 029 020 000 00
021730 1707N 06605W 8436 01553 0087 +165 +162 348027 028 020 000 00
021800 1706N 06607W 8431 01559 0090 +163 //// 350027 027 019 001 01
021830 1705N 06608W 8434 01558 0091 +163 //// 347025 025 020 001 01
$$
;

[vacanechaser]

Well they used the 66 knot SFMR in the VDM. Could be Hurricane Irene I guess, but I doubt it.

yeah, maybe not, but i would not be to surprised to see 70mph...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[CronkPSU]

will it be our first hurricane of the Atlantic 2011 season at 11?

[Dave]

DECODED VDM OB NUMBER 07

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 02:13Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 1:59:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°53'N 65°19'W (17.8833N 65.3167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 61 miles (98 km) to the SE (127°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,376m (4,514ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 66kts (~ 76.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NNE (24°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 105° at 67kts (From the ESE at ~ 77.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the NNE (24°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.32 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,533m (5,030ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph) in the northeast quadrant at 1:53:40Z

[eastcoastFL]

I live in wellington as well. I didnt watch the local news today but last night they were all over it. Been busy today so I havent had a chance to watch much tv but I will see what comes on at 11!

[SouthDadeFish]

I think it deserves 70 mph right now to be honest. 993mb isn't too shabby either.

[AdamFirst]

The storm is not near any peripheries of the subtropical ridge...that wont happen until Tuesday or Wednesday.

[gatorcane]

I would pay attention to the apparent trend of this storm slowing down...I don't think that was expected. Sometimes that means a change in overall direction is coming but the positions of the HPs to the east and north don't seem to be the reason. Can anyone account for this slowdown?

Someone said that possibly because the core is strengthening, causing some tugging of the storm's center, contributing to the slow down.

Yes it is accounted for. They expected the subtropical ridge in the central Atlantic to gradually weaken thus slowing the system.

[summersquall]

A tweet from stormteam8wfla:

StormTeam8WFLA Storm Team 8 WFLA-TV
Hurricane Hunters found max winds in Tropical Storm #IRENE at **77 mph** A 'hurricane' upgrade for 11pm possible! #HurricaneIrene ?
http://twitter.com/#!/fema/irene

[CrazyC83]

I wouldn't go to hurricane status yet. No other data supports it and the SFMR had pretty heavy rain in it. 60 kt would be what I would set the intensity at.

[SouthDadeFish]

Also note that the core is 8 degrees warmer than outside instead of only 4 degrees warmer as seen on the previous VDM. By all accounts, she is strengthening pretty quickly.

[eastcoastFL]

will it be our first hurricane of the Atlantic 2011 season at 11?

I think its going to be close but with the current forecast track and it interacting with the islands, I think will give it the nod and upgrade it. If anything to make sure it gets the proper attention it deserves

[brunota2003]

Yes...the 67 knots * .80 = 53.6 knots...but it appears they missed the strongest band to the east (looking on radar, the "eyewall" had yellows and reds, it looks like they went just east of it, through the greens).

[tailgater]

My guesstimate 276degrees @11.5 mph.

[Sal Collaziano]

I live in wellington as well. I didnt watch the local news today but last night they were all over it. Been busy today so I havent had a chance to watch much tv but I will see what comes on at 11!

I'm in Madison Green. When/where is the hurricane party?

[NDG]

For least the last 4hrs, the most northern she has been moving is maybe at 275 deg heading. Lets see what they say in the next advisory.

[Meteorcane]

So it has begun to weaken then due to dry air?