ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

Had to restart GE...

[ozonepete]

I would pay attention to the apparent trend of this storm slowing down...I don't think that was expected. Sometimes that means a change in overall direction is coming but the positions of the HPs to the east and north don't seem to be the reason. Can anyone account for this slowdown?

Slowdowns are also common just before landfall.

[SouthDadeFish]

So it has begun to weaken then due to dry air?

Lol where did you get that from? Recon is showing stronger winds and a lower pressure. This is a strengthening storm. Also IR Imagery shows what looks to be an established CDO feature:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[TwisterFanatic]

IMO, they put it at 70 MPH at 11.

[eastcoastFL]

Do you think it will interact with any of the mountains of the islands or stay off shore and continue to gain strength?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220229
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 27 20110822
021900 1704N 06609W 8432 01560 0091 +163 //// 348024 025 021 000 01
021930 1703N 06610W 8429 01565 0091 +167 +160 346021 023 019 000 00
022000 1701N 06612W 8434 01559 0092 +165 +160 347017 018 018 000 00
022030 1700N 06613W 8429 01564 0094 +161 //// 351020 021 016 000 01
022100 1659N 06614W 8433 01560 0092 +167 +157 349022 022 018 000 00
022130 1658N 06616W 8433 01562 0094 +164 +160 350021 022 018 000 00
022200 1656N 06617W 8430 01566 0095 +164 +159 351021 021 017 000 00
022230 1655N 06618W 8435 01559 0096 +164 +156 354020 020 017 000 00
022300 1654N 06619W 8431 01565 0096 +165 +150 353021 021 015 001 00
022330 1653N 06621W 8433 01563 0096 +164 +151 350022 023 016 000 00
022400 1652N 06622W 8432 01562 0094 +165 +152 348023 024 013 000 00
022430 1650N 06623W 8424 01574 0096 +167 +150 349025 025 013 000 00
022500 1649N 06625W 8436 01562 0095 +171 +146 347025 025 015 000 00
022530 1648N 06626W 8432 01566 0096 +171 +146 346026 027 015 000 00
022600 1646N 06628W 8436 01564 0097 +171 +145 345025 026 014 000 00
022630 1645N 06629W 8431 01570 0098 +171 +146 349026 027 015 000 00
022700 1643N 06630W 8434 01567 0099 +169 +149 349026 027 014 000 00
022730 1642N 06632W 8434 01568 0099 +170 +145 352024 025 013 000 00
022800 1641N 06633W 8436 01567 0099 +170 +145 357024 025 013 000 00
022830 1639N 06635W 8431 01571 0101 +170 +147 359021 022 012 000 00
$$
;

[pgoss11]

IMO, they put it at 70 MPH at 11.

I agree they won't upgrade until after the trek across PR

[ozonepete]

Do you think it will interact with any of the mountains of the islands or stay off shore and continue to gain strength?

Looks like it's going right over the island from SE to NW or W. So the mountainous terrain should weaken it or at least keep it from strengthening.

[Meteorcane]

So it has begun to weaken then due to dry air?

Lol where did you get that from? Recon is showing stronger winds and a lower pressure. This is a strengthening storm. Also IR Imagery shows what looks to be an established CDO feature:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

Isn't everyone claiming those winds are contaminated?

[fci]

Not much hype here at all from the news media here in Palm Beach. 10 o'clock news spent maybe 2 or 3 minutes on it and that is it.

They spent so much more time when Emily was threatening......

I think it is better for less hype at this point.
Like you mentioned with Ike, the fewer times we have "false alarms" the better.

[Dave]

Without cloud cover....

[SouthDadeFish]

I hope the dropped a sonde in that strong band on the North side.

[AdamFirst]

Isn't everyone claiming those winds are contaminated?

VDM said 66 knots, 67 knots was the peak. Non-contaminated.

[SouthDadeFish]

So it has begun to weaken then due to dry air?

Lol where did you get that from? Recon is showing stronger winds and a lower pressure. This is a strengthening storm. Also IR Imagery shows what looks to be an established CDO feature:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

Isn't everyone claiming those winds are contaminated?

The 66 knot SFMR probably is although they did use it in the VDM. There was still 67 knot flight level winds, which are impressive.

[fci]

Bryan Norcross says the slower Irene moves the less of a northward pull the troughs will have on her.

Norcross is a five star met

Yeah, I didnt know he is with weather channel now ,just caught him on there will start watching TWC now.

TWC is well worth watching for Tropics when Bryan is on.
Otherwise for the tropics I look elsewhere for info since there can be time lags and regurgitation of the obvious which I can simply read on-line at the NHC site, in the advisory thread here or on Wunderground.

[calmbeforestorm1]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/ir4-l.jpg

I don't think there's much doubt this will be a hurricane very soon if it's not already.

[vacanechaser]

it might not so bad with norcross or with rick knabb.. he fresh out of the hurricane center himself.. nice guy.. and very smart...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[ozonepete]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/ir4-l.jpg

I don't think there's much doubt this will be a hurricane very soon if it's not already.

Agree but NHC won't upgrade now. Irene will hover just below hurricane strength tonight and then intensify to hurricane tomorrow over the Mona Passage most likely.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220239
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 28 20110822
022900 1638N 06636W 8434 01570 0102 +169 +148 358021 021 008 000 00
022930 1637N 06638W 8433 01572 0102 +171 +139 358020 020 008 000 00
023000 1635N 06639W 8432 01571 0104 +169 +140 356020 021 007 000 03
023030 1634N 06640W 8432 01574 0107 +165 +150 341016 017 /// /// 03
023100 1632N 06639W 8432 01573 0106 +165 +148 343014 015 005 002 03
023130 1632N 06637W 8434 01569 0105 +165 +148 340014 014 010 000 00
023200 1633N 06635W 8433 01570 0104 +165 +147 339014 014 010 000 00
023230 1633N 06633W 8433 01571 0105 +165 +143 339014 014 010 000 00
023300 1633N 06631W 8432 01571 0103 +165 +148 338014 015 010 000 00
023330 1633N 06629W 8433 01570 0103 +166 +149 335015 016 010 000 00
023400 1633N 06627W 8432 01571 0102 +166 +150 331015 016 010 000 00
023430 1633N 06625W 8433 01570 0098 +174 +140 331016 016 010 000 00
023500 1633N 06623W 8432 01570 0096 +175 +140 332017 018 009 000 00
023530 1633N 06621W 8432 01571 0099 +171 +147 332021 021 010 000 00
023600 1633N 06619W 8434 01565 0097 +170 +151 329021 022 011 000 00
023630 1633N 06617W 8434 01566 0099 +169 +153 325018 020 009 000 00
023700 1633N 06615W 8431 01568 0100 +168 +154 317014 014 012 000 00
023730 1633N 06613W 8436 01564 0100 +165 +156 313013 014 011 000 00
023800 1633N 06611W 8432 01568 0100 +165 +154 315014 014 012 000 00
023830 1633N 06609W 8431 01568 0099 +165 +154 310014 015 011 000 00
$$
;

[gatorcane]

I would be shocked if they don't nudge the track slightly east with line just off the east coast of Florida...with the cone bending slightly more right at the end.Just a slight nudge though but enough to keep the line just east of the coastline and paralleling the east coast of Florida.