ATL: IRENE - Models

[KWT]

Looks like its more or less following the NHC track for now, so will be interesting to see whether it pulls as far NW as the GFS suggests.

[TwisterFanatic]

48 Hours

[bigdan35]

does look like the mountains could keep it in check for right now anyways

[SouthernBreeze]

Loses quite a bit of it's punch over Hispaniola!

[TwisterFanatic]

54 Hours:

[SeminoleWind]

ridge still holding there at 54

[viberama]

I don't agree witn the models pushing this as far east as they have. I agree it's overdone. The high out there just isn't going to let Irene move that much farther east than the NHC track. I see Irene coming very close to the coastline somewhere from Ft Pierce to St. Augustine with a possible landfall south of Daytona Beach and then up into the Carolina's. Only time will tell I guess.

Long time Lurker, new opinionator

[KWT]

998mbs at 48hrs, it probably loses some organisation but thats to be expected, going to have quite alot of time over water from that point onwards, I'm also betting it will be a very large system by then as well.

[fci]

The shift in the models between 24 hours ago and now is pretty big... And I dont think it is all due to the center relocation. The ridge is a bit weaker at day 5 today than it was depicted yesterday. Makes me wonder if this is just an anomaly, and that a shift back to the W is possible. I suppose this is why the NHC put their track along the W side of the envelop.

Left side of the envelope may also be for purposes of "continuity" as the NHC does not like to make radical shifts in tracks. They usually start from one side of the envelope and over a series of advisories move it towards the middle.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Evil Jeremy]

At comprable time frame, the 18z run is the same with the 12z run, but (with my untrained eyes) the ridge appears to be stronger this time.

[TBCaneFreak]

For what its worth if not already posted as of 6pm Irene is south of 18z posted runs and separating by running west not wnw as shown on models

[bigdan35]

For some reason this looks like it could move a little further west on this run we will see.

[Vortex]

H+60 SE bahamas beginning to strengthen





http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal060.gif

[SeminoleWind]

ridging still there

[KWT]

For what its worth if not already posted as of 6pm Irene is south of 18z posted runs and separating by running west not wnw as shown on models

Really...not sure it is:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006m.gif

the center on the radar was pretty much spot on that forecast, any difference is so small it really isn't going to matter at all in the long run.

Note also the 18z takes it due west along S.PR as well...

[TBCaneFreak]

The shift in the models between 24 hours ago and now is pretty big... And I dont think it is all due to the center relocation. The ridge is a bit weaker at day 5 today than it was depicted yesterday. Makes me wonder if this is just an anomaly, and that a shift back to the W is possible. I suppose this is why the NHC put their track along the W side of the envelop.

Left side of the envelope may also be for purposes of "continuity" as the NHC does not like to make radical shifts in tracks. They usually start from one side of the envelope and over a series of advisories move it towards the middle.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

And they are not likely to do so with the system tracking outside the left side of the model guidance envelope as it is now

[TwisterFanatic]

60 Hours:

[Vortex]

H+66 strengthening just N of eastern Cuba...Spot on to NHC forecast thus far


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal066.gif

[TwisterFanatic]

66 Hours:

[TBCaneFreak]

Quite abit faster than 12z run...comparing to run -6 hours