ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Dave]

281
URNT15 KNHC 281707
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 43 20110728
165800 2414N 09024W 8430 01561 0089 +176 +062 178016 017 037 002 03
165830 2416N 09025W 8436 01552 0083 +185 +064 177018 019 034 001 03
165900 2417N 09026W 8428 01560 0078 +187 +066 174018 019 032 000 00
165930 2418N 09027W 8429 01557 0078 +182 +069 189017 018 035 004 00
170000 2419N 09029W 8424 01559 0069 +192 +071 182017 018 035 001 00
170030 2420N 09030W 8439 01538 0053 +208 +072 167013 017 033 003 00
170100 2422N 09031W 8431 01544 0041 +221 +076 124007 010 027 000 03
170130 2423N 09033W 8432 01538 0030 +234 +083 058010 011 025 000 03
170200 2424N 09034W 8433 01539 0030 +238 +091 029016 019 023 000 00
170230 2425N 09035W 8431 01540 0030 +237 +099 038020 021 023 000 03
170300 2426N 09035W 8421 01551 0032 +232 +103 049018 019 /// /// 03
170330 2425N 09034W 8425 01548 0030 +239 +106 044012 014 014 001 03
170400 2424N 09034W 8431 01542 0030 +238 +107 004016 017 021 002 03
170430 2422N 09034W 8428 01544 0036 +229 +105 338010 014 026 000 03
170500 2421N 09032W 8433 01543 0045 +217 +103 209006 009 029 000 00
170530 2420N 09031W 8432 01545 0054 +206 +098 191014 019 027 003 03
170600 2420N 09029W 8423 01555 0065 +191 +092 186021 023 /// /// 03
170630 2421N 09028W 8437 01542 0065 +194 +083 172024 025 /// /// 03
170700 2423N 09028W 8424 01555 0063 +194 +075 163027 028 039 000 03
170730 2424N 09030W 8430 01543 0050 +209 +069 151028 029 036 004 03
$$
;

[Dave]

[Fyzn94]

Don has about a 12% chance of becoming a hurricane.

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 281716
XXAA 78178 99244 70906 08240 99005 28211 23013 00047 27809 23013
92737 23803 21014 85479 23256 29503 88999 77999
31313 09608 81704
61616 AF303 0204A DON OB 17
62626 EYE SPL 2437N09055W 1706 MBL WND 22013 AEV 20802 DLM WND 22
010 004843 WL150 22513 083 REL 2436N09055W 170440 SPG 2436N09054W
170635 =
XXBB 78178 99244 70906 08240 00005 28211 11896 22610 22874 24050
33850 23256 44843 22462
21212 00005 23013 11988 22013 22905 21513 33858 18503 44843 32007
31313 09608 81704
61616 AF303 0204A DON OB 17
62626 EYE SPL 2437N09055W 1706 MBL WND 22013 AEV 20802 DLM WND 22
010 004843 WL150 22513 083 REL 2436N09055W 170440 SPG 2436N09054W
170635 =

[Dave]

544
URNT15 KNHC 281717
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 44 20110728
170800 2424N 09032W 8428 01544 0038 +225 +066 135020 025 030 000 03
170830 2425N 09034W 8430 01538 0029 +240 +068 084013 014 025 001 00
170900 2426N 09036W 8433 01537 0028 +242 +072 056018 021 025 000 03
170930 2427N 09037W 8430 01544 0035 +233 +078 051023 024 027 000 03
171000 2428N 09038W 8429 01549 0047 +221 +082 054025 025 030 000 00
171030 2429N 09040W 8433 01550 0059 +208 +083 061027 027 034 000 03
171100 2430N 09041W 8430 01554 0066 +203 +080 061029 030 034 000 00
171130 2432N 09042W 8433 01550 0068 +198 +077 061028 030 033 001 03
171200 2433N 09044W 8428 01559 0074 +193 +074 062030 030 035 000 03
171230 2434N 09045W 8429 01561 0077 +193 +071 065028 028 032 000 03
171300 2435N 09046W 8436 01557 0083 +188 +068 063027 029 032 000 00
171330 2436N 09047W 8427 01567 0085 +186 +066 061027 027 033 002 03
171400 2437N 09049W 8425 01568 0085 +190 +062 056026 027 030 000 00
171430 2438N 09050W 8429 01567 0089 +188 +061 056027 028 031 000 00
171500 2440N 09051W 8430 01568 0090 +189 +060 055028 029 031 000 03
171530 2441N 09052W 8433 01565 0092 +185 +060 052028 028 030 000 03
171600 2442N 09053W 8428 01572 0094 +185 +060 051027 028 032 000 03
171630 2443N 09055W 8431 01572 0099 +181 +059 052028 028 030 000 03
171700 2444N 09056W 8432 01574 0104 +179 +058 050026 027 031 000 03
171730 2445N 09057W 8432 01576 0108 +175 +057 053027 028 031 000 03
$$
;

[Dave]

[beoumont]

Look at how many outflow boundaries shoot out to the N. That's a lot of collapsing convection.

I suppose you are referring to all those arc clouds moving northward away from the center. Yes, that is a bad sign for any near term organization or intensification. That often indicates rising central pressures.

[Tireman4]

Don has about a 12% chance of becoming a hurricane.

How did you come up with that?

[HURAKAN]

Don has about a 12% chance of becoming a hurricane.

How did you come up with that?

[Dave]

033
URNT15 KNHC 281727
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 45 20110728
171800 2446N 09058W 8429 01580 0111 +174 +056 060027 029 032 000 00
171830 2447N 09100W 8426 01584 0110 +177 +054 055026 027 034 001 00
171900 2448N 09101W 8430 01581 0108 +181 +051 056027 027 032 000 00
171930 2450N 09102W 8428 01583 0112 +177 +052 054025 025 030 000 00
172000 2451N 09103W 8412 01596 0110 +172 +053 063025 026 029 000 03
172030 2453N 09104W 8080 01919 0076 +163 +052 059021 023 /// /// 03
172100 2454N 09104W 7586 02455 0066 +144 +050 062019 020 /// /// 03
172130 2456N 09105W 7255 02835 0053 +133 +045 069022 024 /// /// 03
172200 2457N 09106W 6923 03230 0045 +119 +040 081026 026 /// /// 03
172230 2459N 09106W 6651 03565 0052 +091 +032 089026 027 /// /// 03
172300 2501N 09107W 6391 03898 0046 +076 +024 092028 029 /// /// 03
172330 2502N 09108W 6150 04210 0044 +055 +014 092028 030 /// /// 03
172400 2504N 09108W 5852 04604 0044 +026 +003 090023 027 /// /// 03
172430 2506N 09109W 5632 04925 0042 +009 -008 089026 028 /// /// 03
172500 2507N 09109W 5422 05239 0265 -005 -021 090027 028 /// /// 03
172530 2509N 09110W 5262 05479 0285 -018 -032 097028 028 /// /// 03
172600 2511N 09111W 5081 05758 0303 -036 -041 093026 027 /// /// 03
172630 2513N 09111W 4909 06031 0324 -055 //// 088024 025 /// /// 05
172700 2515N 09112W 4762 06272 0341 -064 //// 090023 024 026 000 05
172730 2516N 09113W 4625 06497 0354 -077 //// 089023 023 /// /// 05
$$


Mission Over...Put this one in the books.

[Tireman4]

Don has about a 12% chance of becoming a hurricane.

How did you come up with that?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 13P_sm.gif

Oops...sorry...my mistake.

[Dave]

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 281727
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042011
A. 28/17:04:50Z
B. 24 deg 22 min N
090 deg 33 min W
C. 850 mb 1475 m
D. 40 kt
E. 129 deg 15 nm
F. 175 deg 30 kt
G. 131 deg 27 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 17 C / 1524 m
J. 24 C / 1519 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0204A DON OB 16
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 30 KT NW QUAD 17:12:00Z
;

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
100 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

...CENTER OF DON NOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 90.7W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM E OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.7 WEST. DON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...23 KM/H. A GENERAL MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DON SHOULD CROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY...APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST ON FRIDAY....AND REACH THE
TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES.

RAINFALL...DON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST WESTWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN

[Dave]

Next....actually I'm going to break for a few hours bbl

[HURAKAN]

...CENTER OF DON NOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

1:00 PM CDT Thu Jul 28
Location: 24.6°N 90.7°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb

[Dave]

Adding the last decoded VDM (ob 16) before taking off for awhile...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 17:27Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2011
Storm Name: Don (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 17:04:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°22'N 90°33'W (24.3667N 90.55W)
B. Center Fix Location: 389 miles (626 km) to the S (184°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,475m (4,839ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 175° at 30kts (From the S at ~ 34.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 30kts (~ 34.5mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:12:00Z

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Hello all, checking in. My forecast remains on track. As expected conditions are only marginally favorable in the GOM. Shear is taking its toll and a small, sheared T.S into Southern Texas appears it will verify.

You have to hand it to the global models such as the ECMWF and GFS. Though they didn't forecast a T.S, I think this system barely classifies anyway....and none of the globals forecasted anything significant out of this from the beginning.

[tolakram]

I will offer a counter.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Don is now moving into higher heat content waters and shear is relaxing. New blowup over center as we speak. I think calls for a high end TS or low end Hurricane will come to fruition.