ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[cycloneye]

The next mission departs at noon EDT.

Code: Select all

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
       A. 01/1800Z, 02/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 0405A CYCLONE
       C. 01/1600Z
       D. 14.7N 57.5W
       E. 01/1730Z TO 02/0000Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011421
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 32 20110801
141100 1429N 05755W 9776 00305 0124 +230 +214 113032 032 031 000 03
141130 1430N 05757W 9768 00314 0124 +230 +216 112031 032 029 000 03
141200 1430N 05759W 9770 00312 0123 +230 +217 111031 032 028 000 03
141230 1431N 05801W 9443 00602 0115 +217 +217 117029 030 /// /// 03
141300 1432N 05803W 8931 01099 //// +174 //// 125027 028 /// /// 05
141330 1433N 05805W 8479 01539 //// +135 //// 130026 026 034 003 05
141400 1434N 05807W 8412 01605 //// +158 //// 126024 025 032 000 01
141430 1435N 05809W 8438 01578 0121 +152 //// 125024 025 032 000 05
141500 1436N 05811W 8430 01586 //// +140 //// 132022 023 032 000 05
141530 1437N 05813W 8431 01585 0118 +162 +156 133022 024 030 000 03
141600 1438N 05815W 8428 01587 0117 +165 +151 121022 023 032 000 03
141630 1439N 05817W 8187 01838 0113 +159 +148 121020 022 034 000 03
141700 1440N 05819W 7810 02243 0112 +142 //// 121017 020 033 000 05
141730 1441N 05821W 7457 02633 //// +116 //// 100008 013 031 000 05
141800 1442N 05823W 7120 03026 //// +101 //// 099006 009 033 001 05
141830 1443N 05825W 6850 03352 //// +083 //// 105011 011 036 001 05
141900 1444N 05827W 6594 03672 //// +075 //// 099014 016 035 002 05
141930 1445N 05829W 6363 03965 //// +057 //// 090017 017 026 000 01
142000 1446N 05831W 6139 04263 //// +036 //// 085013 015 028 002 01
142030 1447N 05833W 5902 04557 //// +019 //// 060017 020 026 002 01
$$
;
..............................
URNT15 KNHC 011430
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 33 20110801
142100 1448N 05835W 5704 04831 //// +008 //// 058019 020 013 000 05
142130 1449N 05837W 5517 05113 //// -010 //// 061020 021 013 000 05
142200 1450N 05839W 5336 05383 0292 -024 //// 054019 020 /// /// 05
142230 1451N 05841W 5165 05643 0308 -042 //// 052019 019 /// /// 05
142300 1452N 05843W 5010 05877 0324 -052 //// 053022 024 /// /// 05
142330 1453N 05845W 4866 06115 0341 -062 //// 048025 026 /// /// 05
142400 1454N 05847W 4727 06337 0355 -074 //// 045023 024 /// /// 05
142430 1455N 05849W 4598 06549 0364 -082 //// 048023 024 /// /// 05
142500 1456N 05851W 4480 06732 0370 -096 //// 049024 025 /// /// 05
142530 1457N 05853W 4361 06949 0381 -110 //// 043020 021 /// /// 05
142600 1458N 05855W 4246 07155 0395 -120 //// 043023 024 /// /// 05
142630 1459N 05857W 4145 07343 0409 -132 //// 043021 021 /// /// 05
142700 1500N 05859W 4051 07516 0422 -144 //// 045021 022 /// /// 05
142730 1501N 05901W 3959 07689 0435 -155 //// 043023 023 /// /// 05
142800 1502N 05904W 3873 07856 0446 -168 //// 039021 023 /// /// 05
142830 1503N 05906W 3783 08033 0458 -179 //// 028020 020 /// /// 05
142900 1504N 05908W 3694 08230 0486 -193 //// 018019 020 /// /// 05
142930 1505N 05910W 3617 08391 0500 -206 //// 022018 018 /// /// 05
143000 1506N 05912W 3594 08444 0505 -214 //// 021018 019 /// /// 05
143030 1507N 05914W 3595 08430 0504 -215 //// 024020 021 /// /// 05
$$

[stormreader]

looks like its already TS Emily on that sat pic Gustywind provided

Its a reasonable bet that we will have tropical storm Emily later this afternoon.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 011440
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 34 20110801
143100 1509N 05916W 3597 08439 0507 -211 //// 028021 021 /// /// 05
143130 1510N 05919W 3597 08432 0506 -210 //// 032021 022 /// /// 05
143200 1511N 05921W 3600 08429 0505 -210 //// 036022 022 /// /// 05
143230 1512N 05924W 3597 08432 0506 -210 //// 039022 022 /// /// 05
143300 1513N 05926W 3597 08438 0508 -210 //// 037020 021 /// /// 05
143330 1515N 05929W 3598 08427 0507 -210 //// 037019 020 /// /// 05
143400 1516N 05931W 3598 08437 0505 -211 //// 040020 021 /// /// 05
143430 1517N 05934W 3597 08384 0458 -212 //// 044021 022 /// /// 05
143500 1519N 05936W 3598 08383 0458 -210 //// 045022 022 /// /// 05
143530 1520N 05939W 3597 08385 0458 -210 //// 044022 022 /// /// 05
143600 1521N 05941W 3598 08383 0459 -212 //// 038022 022 /// /// 05
143630 1522N 05944W 3598 08384 0459 -215 //// 034021 022 /// /// 05
143700 1524N 05947W 3598 08383 0460 -215 //// 034022 022 /// /// 05
143730 1525N 05949W 3598 08384 0460 -215 //// 037022 022 /// /// 05
143800 1526N 05952W 3597 08387 0460 -214 //// 039022 023 /// /// 05
143830 1528N 05954W 3598 08387 0461 -210 //// 041023 023 /// /// 05
143900 1529N 05957W 3598 08388 0462 -211 //// 040022 022 /// /// 05
143930 1530N 06000W 3598 08387 0462 -212 //// 042021 021 /// /// 05
144000 1532N 06002W 3598 08387 0463 -214 //// 043023 024 /// /// 05
144030 1533N 06005W 3598 08390 0465 -213 //// 043024 024 /// /// 05
$$
At 14:31:00Z (first observation), the observation was 127 miles (204 km) to the ENE (73°) from Fort-de-France, Martinique (FRA).
At 14:40:30Z (last observation), the observation was 89 miles (143 km) between the ENE and E (79°) from Roseau, Dominica.

[Aric Dunn]

The MLc is circulation like a good'un, a good sign tyhat conditions aloft there are pretty good, its the low level flow that is causing such big problems, it needs to really slow down if this system is going to get stacked in any decent way.

All the while it keeps on tracking near due west.

although that one vort seems to be growing... see more low level curvature associated with it. extending SE and NW ..

[RL3AO]

They're on their way home. Rest up for the next flight!

[HouTXmetro]

Is it just me but I noticed that some of the lesser "credible" models have been sniffing out patterns ahead of the more dependable models?

[Ivanhater]

I think we are just getting a little exhausted with this system so far. We have really high expectations with this possibly already being a hurricane headed for the Islands. Take a step back. If we knew nothing about this system yet and saw it today for the first time and the conditions out ahead, I think we would be bullish.

[Aric Dunn]

and here comes the GFS

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011451
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 35 20110801
144100 1534N 06007W 3598 08394 0469 -214 //// 043024 024 025 000 05
144130 1535N 06010W 3598 08396 0472 -215 //// 044023 023 026 000 05
144200 1537N 06013W 3596 08403 0474 -215 //// 040024 025 026 000 05
144230 1538N 06015W 3601 08392 0472 -215 //// 040025 026 026 000 05
144300 1539N 06018W 3597 08399 0472 -215 //// 040022 022 027 000 01
144330 1541N 06020W 3598 08395 0471 -215 //// 044023 023 027 000 05
144400 1542N 06023W 3598 08394 0471 -215 //// 046023 023 025 001 05
144430 1543N 06026W 3598 08395 0471 -215 //// 045023 024 028 000 01
144500 1545N 06028W 3598 08394 0471 -213 //// 051021 022 029 001 01
144530 1546N 06031W 3597 08398 0472 -210 //// 051021 022 029 000 05
144600 1547N 06034W 3596 08399 0472 -210 //// 053021 022 027 000 05
144630 1548N 06036W 3597 08399 0473 -215 //// 053021 022 027 000 05
144700 1550N 06039W 3600 08394 0474 -217 //// 056019 020 028 000 05
144730 1551N 06041W 3599 08399 0477 -217 //// 058019 019 027 000 05
144800 1552N 06044W 3594 08409 0478 -218 //// 059020 021 026 000 05
144830 1554N 06047W 3598 08404 0479 -220 //// 054019 020 026 000 05
144900 1555N 06049W 3599 08400 0480 -220 //// 055018 018 025 000 05
144930 1556N 06052W 3595 08410 0480 -221 //// 055017 019 024 000 05
145000 1557N 06055W 3600 08400 0479 -223 //// 058017 018 025 000 05
145030 1559N 06057W 3595 08409 0479 -222 //// 056020 022 025 000 05
$$
................................
000
URNT15 KNHC 011500
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 36 20110801
145100 1600N 06100W 3598 08403 0478 -220 //// 055021 022 025 000 05
145130 1601N 06103W 3598 08402 0476 -215 //// 051023 023 024 000 05
145200 1603N 06105W 3598 08399 0476 -218 //// 053023 024 024 000 05
145230 1604N 06108W 3597 08404 0477 -220 //// 057020 020 025 000 05
145300 1605N 06111W 3598 08404 0479 -217 //// 056024 026 /// /// 05
145330 1607N 06113W 3596 08405 0478 -218 //// 059020 021 /// /// 05
145400 1608N 06116W 3598 08402 0478 -218 //// 060020 021 /// /// 05
145430 1609N 06119W 3598 08403 0478 -217 //// 058022 024 /// /// 05
145500 1611N 06121W 3598 08402 0478 -217 //// 060021 023 /// /// 05
145530 1612N 06124W 3598 08404 0479 -220 //// 059019 019 /// /// 05
145600 1613N 06127W 3598 08403 0479 -220 //// 062019 020 /// /// 05
145630 1614N 06129W 3598 08404 0479 -217 //// 062021 021 /// /// 05
145700 1616N 06132W 3598 08403 0478 -220 //// 066021 022 /// /// 05
145730 1617N 06135W 3597 08405 0479 -220 //// 067022 022 /// /// 05
145800 1618N 06137W 3598 08404 0480 -220 //// 067021 021 /// /// 05
145830 1620N 06140W 3598 08404 0480 -220 //// 064020 020 /// /// 05
145900 1621N 06143W 3598 08403 0479 -220 //// 066018 018 /// /// 05
145930 1622N 06145W 3597 08405 0479 -220 //// 067017 018 /// /// 05
150000 1623N 06148W 3598 08404 0479 -220 //// 068017 017 /// /// 05
150030 1625N 06151W 3598 08402 0479 -220 //// 065019 020 /// /// 05
$$

[cycloneye]

I think we are just getting a little exhausted with this system so far. We have really high expectations with this possibly already being a hurricane headed for the Islands. Take a step back. If we knew nothing about this system yet and saw it today for the first time and the conditions out ahead, I think we would be bullish.

Agree 100% with this.

[Aric Dunn]

Is it just me but I noticed that some of the lesser "credible" models have been sniffing out patterns ahead of the more dependable models?

yeah. a model is really only as good as the data put into it. hurricane models dont do very well with formation..

[KWT]

although that one vort seems to be growing... see more low level curvature associated with it. extending SE and NW ..

Its worth watching just in case, I've seen times when similar features have hit better conditions and the whole convective area pulses westwards onto the LLC and the whole process kicks off.

[Texas Snowman]

I know it's not the same set up but sort of reminds me of Ike when he edefied the models and kept trucking west.

I was thinking about Ike and how he did that last night. IMO, this is certainly a threat for Florida. And very well may end up being a threat for GOM down the road.

[pgoss11]

[quote="Ivanhater"]I think we are just getting a little exhausted with this system so far. We have really high expectations with this possibly already being a hurricane headed for the Islands. Take a step back. If we knew nothing about this system yet and saw it today for the first time and the conditions out ahead, I think we would be bullish.[/q
I think you're right on with this, but for those of us who spent the weekend monitoring this system.. we are just tired of it. I am going to walk away from the computer for a day and hope it looks better by tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

have a feeling looking at the 12z so far.. its going to be a little farther west..

ridging is a little stronger..

[hurricanedude]

that was a mouthfull Mike

[Weatherfreak000]

I think we are just getting a little exhausted with this system so far. We have really high expectations with this possibly already being a hurricane headed for the Islands. Take a step back. If we knew nothing about this system yet and saw it today for the first time and the conditions out ahead, I think we would be bullish.

Yeah true..the problem though is when this finally does develop is such a HUGE factor. Much more important than usual.

[Blown Away]

IMO, recon will find a TD or Emily. Persistent convection over the circulation and nice cyclonic spin, IMO that justifies the 90%. Dry air the the NW is a concern, but it appears 91L has slowed its forward motion.

[Bocadude85]

IMO, recon will find a TD or Emily. Persistent convection over the circulation and nice cyclonic spin, IMO that justifies the 90%. Dry air the the NW is a concern, but it appears 91L has slowed its forward motion.

What time is recon heading out this afternoon?