ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion
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brunota2003
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Mouton
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Regardless of whether they upgrade it to a hurricane, which I don't think they will at 11, Puerto Rico is in for one hell of a lot of rain over the next 24 hours as this storm has the brakes on now. My guess is it will remain in the
60-70mph area for the next day+ which is what the discussion at 5PM projected. Although Puerto Rico is not as mountainous as hispaniola, it a pretty large which should keep any intensification on hold IMO.
Just the WAG of someone with a keyboard and definitely not an official comment.
60-70mph area for the next day+ which is what the discussion at 5PM projected. Although Puerto Rico is not as mountainous as hispaniola, it a pretty large which should keep any intensification on hold IMO.
Just the WAG of someone with a keyboard and definitely not an official comment.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
calmbeforestorm1 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/ir4-l.jpg
I don't think there's much doubt this will be a hurricane very soon if it's not already.
gets my vote(getting really close)
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Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!
This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
So how big of a east shift does everyone think the NHC Will make at 11?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
since it seems to be moving further west opposed to wnw, why would they move the cone right when two models are still well left of the official?
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Mouton
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Bocadude85 wrote:So how big of a east shift does everyone think the NHC Will make at 11?
IMO, very little if any.
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Re:
NDG wrote:Looking good tonight on radar.
still a little bit of dry air intervening around SW side
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Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!
This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
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Dave
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- Contact:
Water Vapor...
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This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Mouton wrote:Bocadude85 wrote:So how big of a east shift does everyone think the NHC Will make at 11?
IMO, very little if any.
<50 miles
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Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!
This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
up to 70Mph
0 likes
Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!
This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
000
WTNT44 KNHC 220259
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011
IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AS THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND RADIAL
VELOCITIES HAVE INCREASED ON THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR. THERE HAS
ALSO BEEN A MARKED INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO
993 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT BASED ON A PEAK
BELIEVABLE SFMR VALUE OF 61 KT AND AN EXPANDING AREA OF 65 TO 70 KT
DOPPLER VELOCITIES AT 5500 TO 6000 FEET ON THE SAN JUAN RADAR.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE
SOUTHEAST AND ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION...SO THE INTENSITY OF IRENE WILL LARGELY BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND IN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER
PUERTO RICO. THE CYCLONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS...AND SOME
WEAKENING IS INDICATED DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...IF IRENE MOVES
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED HERE IN
36 TO 48 HOURS...OR WEAKER THAN FORECAST IF IT MOVES OVER MORE OF
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THAT ISLAND. BEYOND 48 HOURS GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS IRENE MOVES OVER WARM WATERS NEAR THE
BAHAMAS...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS VERY HIGH LATE IN THE PERIOD
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION IN THE SHORT TERM.
WHILE THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CENTER APPEARED TO HAVE SLOWED ON
RADAR IMAGERY AS THE CYCLONE ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING HOURS...
THE LONG TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD 285 DEGREES AT ABOUT
13 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A LONGWAVE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO...BUT LEAVES A
PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE BAHAMAS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL
AND UKMET...ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TURNING IRENE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD REMAINS IN THE SHARPNESS OF THIS TURN
IN THE MODEL SUITE. FOR THIS CYCLE THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED BACK A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...WITH THE GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF
MODELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UKMET AND GFDL FARTHER WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE RIGHT...TOWARD BUT STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE FIM MODEL PROVIDED BY THE
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT.
IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE
ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 17.9N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 18.6N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 19.4N 70.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1200Z 20.1N 72.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 24/0000Z 20.9N 73.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 23.5N 77.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 26.5N 79.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 30.0N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
WTNT34 KNHC 220251
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011
...IRENE STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES PUERTO RICO...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 65.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WNW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK
THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND
NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER
PUERTO RICO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A STATION AT SALT RIVER BAY ON ST. CROIX RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 57
MPH...92 KM/H. ROOSEVELT ROADS NAVAL STATION ON PUERTO RICO
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 45 MPH...72 KM/H.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY MONDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA TONIGHT...AND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY. THE
HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3
TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO
RICO...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
WTNT24 KNHC 220249
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0300 UTC MON AUG 22 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 65.5W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 15SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......130NE 60SE 30SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 60SE 15SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 65.5W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 65.0W
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.6N 67.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 45SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.4N 70.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 45SE 30SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.1N 72.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 45SE 30SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.9N 73.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 75SW 110NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 26.5N 79.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 30.0N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 65.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
WTNT44 KNHC 220259
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011
IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AS THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND RADIAL
VELOCITIES HAVE INCREASED ON THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR. THERE HAS
ALSO BEEN A MARKED INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO
993 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT BASED ON A PEAK
BELIEVABLE SFMR VALUE OF 61 KT AND AN EXPANDING AREA OF 65 TO 70 KT
DOPPLER VELOCITIES AT 5500 TO 6000 FEET ON THE SAN JUAN RADAR.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE
SOUTHEAST AND ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION...SO THE INTENSITY OF IRENE WILL LARGELY BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND IN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER
PUERTO RICO. THE CYCLONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS...AND SOME
WEAKENING IS INDICATED DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...IF IRENE MOVES
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED HERE IN
36 TO 48 HOURS...OR WEAKER THAN FORECAST IF IT MOVES OVER MORE OF
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THAT ISLAND. BEYOND 48 HOURS GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS IRENE MOVES OVER WARM WATERS NEAR THE
BAHAMAS...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS VERY HIGH LATE IN THE PERIOD
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION IN THE SHORT TERM.
WHILE THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CENTER APPEARED TO HAVE SLOWED ON
RADAR IMAGERY AS THE CYCLONE ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING HOURS...
THE LONG TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD 285 DEGREES AT ABOUT
13 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A LONGWAVE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO...BUT LEAVES A
PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE BAHAMAS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL
AND UKMET...ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TURNING IRENE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD REMAINS IN THE SHARPNESS OF THIS TURN
IN THE MODEL SUITE. FOR THIS CYCLE THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED BACK A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...WITH THE GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF
MODELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UKMET AND GFDL FARTHER WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE RIGHT...TOWARD BUT STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE FIM MODEL PROVIDED BY THE
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT.
IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE
ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 17.9N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 18.6N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 19.4N 70.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1200Z 20.1N 72.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 24/0000Z 20.9N 73.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 23.5N 77.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 26.5N 79.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 30.0N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
WTNT34 KNHC 220251
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011
...IRENE STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES PUERTO RICO...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 65.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WNW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK
THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND
NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER
PUERTO RICO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A STATION AT SALT RIVER BAY ON ST. CROIX RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 57
MPH...92 KM/H. ROOSEVELT ROADS NAVAL STATION ON PUERTO RICO
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 45 MPH...72 KM/H.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY MONDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA TONIGHT...AND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY. THE
HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3
TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO
RICO...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
WTNT24 KNHC 220249
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0300 UTC MON AUG 22 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 65.5W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 15SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......130NE 60SE 30SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 60SE 15SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 65.5W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 65.0W
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.6N 67.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 45SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.4N 70.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 45SE 30SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.1N 72.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 45SE 30SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.9N 73.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 75SW 110NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 26.5N 79.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 30.0N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 65.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
OH my it Shifted quite a bit 
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Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!
This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
-
Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
up to 70 mph winds at 11...993 mb
and the cone is right of the 5pm cone...good call guys, i was wrong
and the cone is right of the 5pm cone...good call guys, i was wrong
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
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000
URNT15 KNHC 220249
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 29 20110822
023900 1633N 06607W 8434 01565 0099 +165 +154 303015 015 010 000 00
023930 1633N 06605W 8432 01567 0098 +165 +154 294016 017 010 000 00
024000 1633N 06603W 8432 01567 0100 +163 +156 295018 019 009 000 00
024030 1633N 06601W 8432 01567 0099 +165 +159 291018 019 010 000 00
024100 1633N 06559W 8434 01566 0100 +162 +159 287016 016 011 001 00
024130 1633N 06557W 8432 01567 0098 +168 +155 283015 016 011 000 00
024200 1633N 06555W 8433 01566 0098 +169 +156 285014 015 012 000 00
024230 1633N 06553W 8432 01566 0099 +164 +160 292016 017 013 000 00
024300 1633N 06551W 8433 01566 0099 +163 +161 296018 018 014 000 00
024330 1633N 06549W 8433 01566 0099 +163 +161 298018 018 012 000 00
024400 1633N 06547W 8433 01566 0098 +166 +155 301016 017 016 000 00
024430 1633N 06545W 8450 01550 0099 +165 +159 304014 016 014 001 00
024500 1633N 06543W 8427 01568 0097 +162 +160 289014 015 015 000 00
024530 1633N 06541W 8434 01562 0096 +164 +162 287016 017 014 000 00
024600 1634N 06539W 8433 01563 0098 +161 //// 288016 017 014 000 01
024630 1634N 06537W 8436 01560 0099 +160 //// 289015 015 011 001 01
024700 1634N 06536W 8429 01568 0098 +162 //// 289012 013 012 000 01
024730 1634N 06534W 8434 01563 0099 +160 //// 295014 014 010 000 01
024800 1634N 06532W 8432 01566 0099 +160 //// 288013 015 011 001 01
024830 1634N 06530W 8434 01561 0099 +160 //// 272012 012 013 000 01
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 220249
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 29 20110822
023900 1633N 06607W 8434 01565 0099 +165 +154 303015 015 010 000 00
023930 1633N 06605W 8432 01567 0098 +165 +154 294016 017 010 000 00
024000 1633N 06603W 8432 01567 0100 +163 +156 295018 019 009 000 00
024030 1633N 06601W 8432 01567 0099 +165 +159 291018 019 010 000 00
024100 1633N 06559W 8434 01566 0100 +162 +159 287016 016 011 001 00
024130 1633N 06557W 8432 01567 0098 +168 +155 283015 016 011 000 00
024200 1633N 06555W 8433 01566 0098 +169 +156 285014 015 012 000 00
024230 1633N 06553W 8432 01566 0099 +164 +160 292016 017 013 000 00
024300 1633N 06551W 8433 01566 0099 +163 +161 296018 018 014 000 00
024330 1633N 06549W 8433 01566 0099 +163 +161 298018 018 012 000 00
024400 1633N 06547W 8433 01566 0098 +166 +155 301016 017 016 000 00
024430 1633N 06545W 8450 01550 0099 +165 +159 304014 016 014 001 00
024500 1633N 06543W 8427 01568 0097 +162 +160 289014 015 015 000 00
024530 1633N 06541W 8434 01562 0096 +164 +162 287016 017 014 000 00
024600 1634N 06539W 8433 01563 0098 +161 //// 288016 017 014 000 01
024630 1634N 06537W 8436 01560 0099 +160 //// 289015 015 011 001 01
024700 1634N 06536W 8429 01568 0098 +162 //// 289012 013 012 000 01
024730 1634N 06534W 8434 01563 0099 +160 //// 295014 014 010 000 01
024800 1634N 06532W 8432 01566 0099 +160 //// 288013 015 011 001 01
024830 1634N 06530W 8434 01561 0099 +160 //// 272012 012 013 000 01
$$
;
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Dave
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Re:
brunota2003 wrote:Ah...speaking of Pojo, I haven't seen her around in a while.
I haven't either, none this year that I've seen...only a couple times last....late answer, busy in here arguing with google earth. lol
Won battle.
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StormClouds63
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UpTheCreek
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
JB had these tweets an hour ago that I found interesting. Normally wouldn't post except that he links to this forecast from Dr. Maue. I see the legend on the right, but still not sure how to read it's intensity correctly. Almost looks like it's sustaining 150 knots for what looks like a day or two? If so, that's more than a little alarming! Can someone clue me in?
http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf ... 8_nest.png
http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf ... 8_nest.png
BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
HWRF (off Dr Ryan Maue's site) pretty close to my track and intensity as per Weatherbell posts. coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/…
BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Note: I am further west in the Bahamas BUT EAST OF FLA without FLA landfall
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