ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[ROCK]

funny a lot of globals were showing a down the coast trek in earlier runs....they changed their tune what the last 48hrs...now if it does follow the NAM they would have been right along...DOH!!....lets see the guidance come in tonight....we have the 0Z GFS, 0Z CMC, 0Z HWRF then the mighty EURO.

[southerngale]

Here's the 0z NAM loop... not saved.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06NAMLoop.html

[tropicwatch]

they need to update the forecast points... he is way west of those now....

To me it looks like the center is currently south of White Lake.

And just where might this be?

Just west of vermillion bay.

[ROCK]

I don't know where the crow is coming from. A number of models two days ago predicted a loop as being possible. Go back and look. The real southward movement however, was no where. I don't think a real south movement is going to happen. I do think the loop may be starting, with an eventual turn to the ENE/NE as the eventual final movement towards the mid coast of LA.

right, the models showed this 2 days ago...however that was 2 days ago and now a few models are showing the same thing. More guidance coming into night so lets see wht they have to say....

The NAM is a good model for the CONUS and many NWS forecasters rely on it....it totally misses the trof on the NAM and GFDL recent runs...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

they need to update the forecast points... he is way west of those now....

To me it looks like the center is currently south of White Lake.

And just where might this be?

Jagno, its between Grand Lake and Vermillion Bay, close to the coast.

[psyclone]

Lee's most impressive convection by far is currently located all the way over in the eastern gulf headed toward the panhandle. if that holds together the land between the colas (pensacola and apalachicola) could get a boatload of rain.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thanks BigA, will definitely be watching for it tomorrow.

[3090]

I don't know where the crow is coming from. A number of models two days ago predicted a loop as being possible. Go back and look. The real southward movement however, was no where. I don't think a real south movement is going to happen. I do think the loop may be starting, with an eventual turn to the ENE/NE as the eventual final movement towards the mid coast of LA.

right, the models showed this 2 days ago...however that was 2 days ago and now a few models are showing the same thing. More guidance coming into night so lets see wht they have to say....

The NAM is a good model for the CONUS and many NWS forecasters rely on it....it totally misses the trof on the NAM and GFDL recent runs...

I don't understand the where eating crow comes from. The NHC goes with their professional opinion based on a lot of dynamics, not just models. So how does eating crow come into it? This isn't over yet, until it makes an offiical landfall and is done as far as a tropical system goes. Of course things can and do change unexpectedly, BUT Lee is doing pretty much spot on as to the forecast. Can the forecast change? Certainly. But let's see what happens. There is no eating crow.

[tropicwatch]

I have been watching the rain creeping closer to the coast all night. It might actually get here at some point.

Tropicwatch

[CYCLONE MIKE]

If the NAM gets this right would be unreal. So far seems to have the best handle on Lee.

[wxman57]

moving looks SW to me....and the LLC is partially offshore....

do you think it has time to strengthen

No way! It's expanding and losing tropical characteristics while sucking in a ton of dry air from Texas.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011

...LEE STILL MEANDERING NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 92.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST.
LEE HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...HOWEVER A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LEE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE THE LOUISIANA COAST OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY OVER WATER.

REPORTS FROM OFFSHORE OIL RIGS INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY
INTO MONDAY.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF LEE HAS BEEN MEANDERING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. AN OIL PLATFORM LOCATED
ABOUT 20 MILES WEST OF MARSH ISLAND HAS BEEN REPORTING A PRESSURE
OF AROUND 988 MB MOST OF THE EVENING. THE WINDS AT THAT SITE WERE
VARIABLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT RECENTLY HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 15-20 KT INDICATING THAT THE CENTER OF LEE REMAINS
OFFSHORE. THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND OBSERVATIONS DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS ARE 40-44 KT AT SEVERAL ELEVATED RIGS OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. LEE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER...SINCE A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER
WATER...LEE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR ANOTHER 24 TO
36 HOURS.

LEE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT
THAT SHOULD TURN LEE EASTWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST LEE WILL BECOME AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 2-3 DAYS...A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE
IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO NOW INDICATE DISSIPATION OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS IN 4-5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
WESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL
POSITION...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SINCE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND VERY FAR FROM THE
CENTER IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 29.4N 92.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 30.0N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0000Z 30.4N 91.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1200Z 30.7N 90.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0000Z 32.0N 89.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/0000Z 34.0N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/0000Z 36.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

...LEE STILL MEANDERING NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 92.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

[ROCK]

it does look like its outter feeder band is breaking off...interesting..what matters though is the LLC and now looks to be either offshore or very close to being back over water....

[unconquered]

It is still raining steadily here in Beaumont, TX (South Park area). Winds are still pretty gusty at times. Was a little concerned around 4 PM or so with the wind blowing pretty hard, but it has calmed some since then.

[ROCK]

moving looks SW to me....and the LLC is partially offshore....

do you think it has time to strengthen

No way! It's expanding and losing tropical characteristics while sucking in a ton of dry air from Texas.

uh oh WXMN 57 has just jinxed us all.... well if the NAM is right Lee will be a cane in 84 hrs threatening TX this time for real......I am waiting on the GFS to come out....we will know in the first 24hrs or so if it does indeed go SW...

[cycloneye]

No mention of NAM at 10 PM CDT discussion.

[Tyler Penland]

The NAM is a good model for the CONUS and many NWS forecasters rely on it....it totally misses the trof on the NAM and GFDL recent runs...

If the NAM gets this right would be unreal. So far seems to have the best handle on Lee.

I remember us saying that "it would be amazing if the GDFL got it right" when Irene waited a little while to turn, only for it to finally make up its mind and move to the mighty EURO/GFS camp. I trust the NHC with this one.

[galvestontx]

uh oh WXMN 57 has just jinxed us all.... well if the NAM is right Lee will be a cane in 84 hrs threatening TX this time for real......I am waiting on the GFS to come out....we will know in the first 24hrs or so if it does indeed go SW...

sorry not up on all this stuff like you guys, but where does the NAM have it going when it comes back on shore and at what strength?

[cycloneye]

Not a single word on the NAM at 10 PM CDT discussion.

Edit=I just saw wxman57 post at the discussion thread lol