ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

#2701 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 12:58 pm

Remember Claudette got her act together late as well, and was strengthening right through landfall. I see lots of similarities with Don and the endgame may be similar.

jinftl · #2702 Postby **jinftl** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 12:59 pm

Pressure up to 1005mb on 2pm edt advisory....if we could keep this system as a weak to moderate t.s. and increase the size some, this could be one of the few storms that does millions of dollars of benefit in terms of a first appreciable stab at drought relief and little to no damage.

#2703 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:00 pm

Per the 1:00pm update the NHC still expects gradual strengthening.....interesting.

#2704 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:08 pm

I'm thinking that while Don could "pull a Claudette (2003)", the chances of that don't look too great. Maybe 45-50 kts at landfall. Perhaps the more disorganized it is, the better the chance for enhanced daytime storms over Houston this weekend...

ROCK · #2705 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:10 pm

still NW heading....it seems as well

#2706 Postby **Tireman4** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:11 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm thinking that while Don could "pull a Claudette (2003)", the chances of that don't look too great. Maybe 45-50 kts at landfall. Perhaps the more disorganized it is, the better the chance for enhanced daytime storms over Houston this weekend...

That is what I am hoping for too. Increased rain chances for Houston this weekend, that is.

#2707 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:12 pm

Don is falling out all over the place again. I learned a few years back to follow the pressure, which has come up 4mb since recon got in there. Winds are probably down to 40 mph. With this weakening, expect the cone to be shifted northward if it stays weak.

Frank2 · #2708 Postby **Frank2** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:16 pm

Barely a TS ATTM - between dry air and some shear, we'll see if the NHC keeps it a TS at 5 - perhaps for consistency they will keep it a TS, but perhaps lower the wind back down to 40...

Frank

#2709 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:17 pm

latest visible

#2710 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:20 pm

Convection bursting over the center. Should expand and probably will lower the pressure again. We may see this repeating process up until landfall. Just my opinion.

Snow Deprived365 · #2711 Postby **Snow Deprived365** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:21 pm

JonathanBelles wrote:Don is falling out all over the place again. I learned a few years back to follow the pressure, which has come up 4mb since recon got in there. Winds are probably down to 40 mph. With this weakening, expect the cone to be shifted northward if it stays weak.

Hopefully right about 195 miles north!

#2712 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:23 pm

Don's not dead yet......not by a long shot. IMO

jinftl · #2713 Postby **jinftl** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:24 pm

agree, with a rising pressure...and a pressure reading that high, this isn't a system getting its act together in the short-term. Things can change quickly with small systems like this but the NHC hasn't even hinted at a hurricane watch as a precaution...often times if they expect a t.s. to really get going, they will place an area under a ts warning and hurricane watch at the same time.

JonathanBelles wrote:Don is falling out all over the place again. I learned a few years back to follow the pressure, which has come up 4mb since recon got in there. Winds are probably down to 40 mph. With this weakening, expect the cone to be shifted northward if it stays weak.

sallytx · #2714 Postby **sallytx** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:26 pm

Will Don continue to track NW or is this just a temporary thing?

summersquall · #2715 Postby **summersquall** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:28 pm

Snow Deprived365 wrote:
JonathanBelles wrote:Don is falling out all over the place again. I learned a few years back to follow the pressure, which has come up 4mb since recon got in there. Winds are probably down to 40 mph. With this weakening, expect the cone to be shifted northward if it stays weak.

Hopefully right about 195 miles north!

Fingures crossed for all in need of rain.

From NHC 1pm CDT:

RAINFALL...DON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST WESTWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES.

maxx9512 · #2716 Postby **maxx9512** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:44 pm

Could Don be picking up again? Nice burst of convection and as we know with these small systems they can ramp up quickly ( as well as fall apart). Don't see more than maybe 60 mph in the future but hopefully an increase in overall size to help Texas with the drought.
Would take alot more than Don to really put a good dent in it. Seen that some areas are as much as 20+ in. behind.

bbadon · #2717 Postby **bbadon** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:50 pm

Is the circulation actually expanding?

#2718 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:52 pm

From the buoy site I use, it appears most of the standard buoys in the GOM are are OUT of service. Anyone know anything about this?

petit_bois · #2719 Postby **petit_bois** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:53 pm

bbadon wrote:Is the circulation actually expanding?

The sheer is ripping it apart.
It's tiny... and if it expanded it would still be tiny.

lebron23 · #2720 Postby **lebron23** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:53 pm

18z models take a shift south, although the storm itself is moving N of forecast points

ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

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