ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Gustywind]

[Evil Jeremy]

IMO, recon will find a TD or Emily. Persistent convection over the circulation and nice cyclonic spin, IMO that justifies the 90%. Dry air the the NW is a concern, but it appears 91L has slowed its forward motion.

What time is recon heading out this afternoon?

Departs in about 20 minutes.

[SouthDadeFish]

In my opinion the 12Z GFS initialized the current vorticity pretty accurately and has it consolidating by 9 hours. I may be looking into it too much, but perhaps in 9 hours this thing will finally be stacked.

[artist]

obs are caught up right now.

[Ivanhater]

12Z GFS....24 hours. Coming together



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[artist]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 15:05Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 13

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Monday, 15:03Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 16.5N 62.1W
Location: 18 miles (30 km) to the SSE (155°) from Salem, Montserrat.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,930 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 60° at 24 knots (From the ENE at ~ 27.6 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -22°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Broken clouds (5/8 to 7/8 cloud coverage)
D-value: 48 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 25 knots (~ 28.8mph)
Mission Status: Concluded (Last Report)

[Ivanhater]

In my opinion the 12Z GFS initialized the current vorticity pretty accurately and has it consolidating by 9 hours. I may be looking into it too much, but perhaps in 9 hours this thing will finally be stacked.

To me it looks like it may take about 24 hours from now to get together on the GFS..probably getting too detailed at this point

[Weatherfreak000]

^^^

Just bareeeelyy in time to feel that weakness. GFS looking interesting thus far.

Edit: Development in the Graveyard now....dangerous betting on that.

[cycloneye]

IMO, recon will find a TD or Emily. Persistent convection over the circulation and nice cyclonic spin, IMO that justifies the 90%. Dry air the the NW is a concern, but it appears 91L has slowed its forward motion.

What time is recon heading out this afternoon?

Noon EDT.

Code: Select all

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
       A. 01/1800Z, 02/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 0405A CYCLONE
       C. 01/1600Z
       D. 14.7N 57.5W
       E. 01/1730Z TO 02/0000Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



[Aric Dunn]

still farther SW than the 6z run... trend continues

[KWT]

IMO, recon will find a TD or Emily. Persistent convection over the circulation and nice cyclonic spin, IMO that justifies the 90%. Dry air the the NW is a concern, but it appears 91L has slowed its forward motion.

I'm not sure they will, this thing is lacking a decent surface circulation and that is going to need to change if they are to upgrade.

Still thinking this gets upgraded some point soon, its jsut getting the system better stacked...hopefully it can hold the convection it has over the MLC a bit better then recent eveings!

[Weatherfreak000]

Btw anyone else see those two lows behind 91L? What a start to August if that confirms...

[Aric Dunn]

IMO, recon will find a TD or Emily. Persistent convection over the circulation and nice cyclonic spin, IMO that justifies the 90%. Dry air the the NW is a concern, but it appears 91L has slowed its forward motion.

I'm not sure they will, this thing is lacking a decent surface circulation and that is going to need to change if they are to upgrade.

Still thinking this gets upgraded some point soon, its jsut getting the system better stacked...hopefully it can hold the convection it has over the MLC a bit better then recent eveings!

I dont know that one vort still getting more defined and more convection... looking better.. bet there is some west winds very near the center of that..

[northjaxpro]

Good morning everyone,

Ivanhater, you are exactly right. We all just should take a step back and just wait until Recon confirms a closed circulation, should it materialize later today. LOL.. I have to admit that over these past 2-3 days, I have become exhausted analyzing what and when this system will finally consolidate.

I will say this though. This invest has stirred up so much analysis and passion from many on Storm2K as I have never quite seen in all my time being a memeber on here LOL...

Just think, if we have generated nearly 80 pages of discussion on an invest which has yet to be upgraded to a TD or even a TS, I can't even begin to imagine what the page count is going to be if and when 91L finally gets to be a TS or Hurricane.

Oh, what fun and wacky at times analyzing tropical meteorology can be for us. That is why I love weather.

[SouthFLTropics]

It's times like these that I would love to hear John Hope's take on the situation to bring a little bit of reasoning into it. We are an impatient group of people...It's the society we live in. It's like watching a pot of water and waiting for it to boil. It will happen...just wait for it.

SFT

[Ivanhater]

It looks the GFS is consolidating the MLC, not the vort to the NW

[Aric Dunn]

It looks the GFS is consolidating the MLC, not the vort to the NW

how did you figure that.. they are so close to each other right now.. the resolution is not that good.

[Dean4Storms]

12z GFS looks ominous thus far!

[Bocadude85]

12z GFS looks ominous thus far!

Could someone post the link please. At work and do not have the page saved.

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... l_mu.shtml