ATL: IRENE - Models

[bigdan35]

I think if it weakens when over the mountains it could be a different senerio

[TwisterFanatic]

126 Hours: GA/SC Coast fixing to get plowed

[TBCaneFreak]

At this point it looks like the GFS was wrong for 8 days....so why would we think its right now??? Maybe because the others came into agreement with it???? Already happend when GFS was only model calling for Florida strike for 4 days in a row... It may be right now, no one knows.....NO ONE...storm will go where it goes dispite model shifts

[KWT]

the poor bahamas get raked south to north.

Yeah they really do get hammered by this system, a strengthening hurricane is never what you want in your backyard!

bigdan35, it may slow the system down BUT conditions are VERY condusive aloft, hence why the models are really blowing this up like they do.

[AdamFirst]

Looks like the GFS parallels the coast from Palm Beach to Savannah...it's not that far off and should not be considered "a miss" at all.

[TBCaneFreak]

126 Hours: GA/SC Coast fixing to get plowed

That area just doesnt get hit from that angle....Look it up...Neesd to be a Hugo type track...I find this solution interesting, but somewhat suspect....There is a reason that GA hasn't been hit by a stong cane in nearly 100years...its darn near imposible to come at the right angel...and from the south isnt it...

[TwisterFanatic]

129 Hours: South Carolina/Georgia hammered

[KWT]

Agreed AF, its close enough to be worried of large wobbles which would bring the western section of the likely hurricane onshore.

Landfalls Saturday morning as probably a major hurricane near the Ga/SC border.

[gatorcane]

Agreed AF, its close enough to be worried of large wobbles which would bring the western section of the likely hurricane onshore.

Landfalls Saturday morning as probably a major hurricane near the Ga/SC border.

Two runs in a row east of Florida though....

[leaf blower]

Thats got to be the worst case scenario for GA/SC. Irene strengthening for 2 straight days in the gulf stream before landfall.

[TwisterFanatic]

Yea, a little extended wobble here or there could really make a difference between a Florida landfall or a SC landfall.

[SFLcane]

Misses Florida again.

Gusty winds and a bit of rain of this run verified...

By the way the NHC did shift there track north a bit and likely will continue to shift it based on recent model runs.

[plasticup]

the poor bahamas get raked south to north.

Yeah they really do get hammered by this system, a strengthening hurricane is never what you want in your backyard!

bigdan35, it may slow the system down BUT conditions are VERY condusive aloft, hence why the models are really blowing this up like they do.

The Bahamas are going to get a strengthening storm, but someone else it going to get the strengthened storm. It remains to be seen who the unlucky state is, but it's almost guaranteed at this point.

Barring some hardcore Hispaniola disruption, I suppose.

[vacanechaser]

126 Hours: GA/SC Coast fixing to get plowed

That area just doesnt get hit from that angle....Look it up...Neesd to be a Hugo type track...I find this solution interesting, but somewhat suspect....There is a reason that GA hasn't been hit by a stong cane in nearly 100years...its darn near imposible to come at the right angel...and from the south isnt it...

well, it aint moving inland in ga in the model... it goes by to its east.. looks to be a south carolina hit again in this run.. i think a further adjustment eastward to near the south carolina north carolina border with time is possible..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[stormreader]

A question here. I'm an old time storm follower who really only gets his model info second hand. Am I right or just dead wrong by saying that recent model runs don't quite show the consistency of earlier ones. Almost all the early ones took this on a simple path up the penninsula of Fl. Seems like later runs have some models beginning to spread to the east, and a couple beginning to spread some to the west.

[HugoCameandLeft]

Posting from my house located on Daniel Island (essentially in the mouth of Charleston Harbor)... wouldn't the angle of attack shown on these model plots be better for us from a storm surge perspective?

[KWT]

TBCaneFreak, really it comes up from the SSE, its not quite Hugo but actually the upper pattern isn't *that* far off, nowhere near that extreme of course but its not so far off overall when looking at the key features.

[AdamFirst]

Agreed AF, its close enough to be worried of large wobbles which would bring the western section of the likely hurricane onshore.

Landfalls Saturday morning as probably a major hurricane near the Ga/SC border.

Two runs in a row east of Florida though....

A storm of that potential magnitude will still bring nasty weather to the east coast of Florida, especially from Palm Beach northward.

15 runs in a row of a storm at or over Florida should not be discounted because of two runs of the core of the storm being, at maximum, 50 miles off the coastline...

[plasticup]

A question here. I'm an old time storm follower who really only gets his model info second hand. Am I right or just dead wrong by saying that recent model runs don't quite show the consistency of earlier ones. Almost all the early ones took this on a simple path up the penninsula of Fl. Seems like later runs have some models beginning to spread to the east, and a couple beginning to spread some to the west.

That's a good observation. I wonder what element of uncertainty is causing them to spread.

[psyclone]

At this point it looks like the GFS was wrong for 8 days....so why would we think its right now??? Maybe because the others came into agreement with it???? Already happend when GFS was only model calling for Florida strike for 4 days in a row... It may be right now, no one knows.....NO ONE...storm will go where it goes dispite model shifts

that's a valid point. my answer would be that in general you get greater accuracy as you get closer to the event. sometimes models persist with one solution, then shift in mass to another before ultimately drifting back to original solution. i've seen that movie many times. as for this run, even though it does keep the center offshore, it looks close enough to bring at least ts conditions to the east coast based on the packing and stacking of those isobars over there. the west coast would probably just have a breezy northeast wind and some fast moving showers passing by. but that's just one snapshot so stay tuned:)

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