ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Ivanhater]

It looks the GFS is consolidating the MLC, not the vort to the NW

how did you figure that.. they are so close to each other right now.. the resolution is not that good.

The vort to the NW is already ia good bit north of where the GFS is consolidating the surface low in about 24 hours and the vort already has a bit north of west movement. I think once the MLC gets into the Caribbean and surface conv. increases, that is the area to watch.

[djmikey]

http://www.accuweather.com

Concern for the U.S.

If, and these are big if's at this point, the system does become strong enough to turn north and survive the trip through the Greater Antilles gauntlet, it could be drawn in close to Florida, cross Florida reaching the Gulf of Mexico, or it could even make a right turn up along the Atlantic Seaboard.

"A relatively weak system, such as a tropical storm, could continue westward through the Caribbean,"...
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... -antil.asp

[stormreader]

have a feeling looking at the 12z so far.. its going to be a little farther west..

ridging is a little stronger..

I'm not surprised. I still think the actual weakness that really catches this thing won't occur until the E GOM.

[Evil Jeremy]

48 hours out, still WSW of comparable 06z frame.

[Ivanhater]

48 hours



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[Fyzn94]

It's kinda scary as to how long this is taking to develop. Unless residents on the islands already know about this, they will have mere hours to prepare if it is classified.

[wxman57]

Pressure center is displaced SW of the convection, as verified by recon. Maybe 14N/58.3W. Convection does appear to be building closer to the weak LLC. If that happens, then it will become Emily. But it's very disorganized presently.

I think WXMAN is right about convection building over what does appear to be a llc. I'm a little more optimistic about an upgrade than many of you seem to be this morning. I think we have a small system brewing here just east of the islands. And as wxman notes the pressure center is now a little further SW than originally expected, so I think when the upgrade to cyclone comes (sooner rather than later I think) initialization will be a little further south. We'll see if models react with a somewhat later than expected tug north (and a further west trend) because of the smaller size of the system. Just the opinion of an amateur.

Note that I said convection is building CLOSER TO the apparent weak LLC, not over. It's still maybe 75-100 miles NE of the weak LLC. That rotation is so weak it could dissipate at any time. No TS today, most likely.

[Gustywind]

Islanders in the EC continue to be on your guard...
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stmartin.shtml

- SxmDCOMM - EOC recommends continued vigilance; System continues to show signs of development
•By Roddy Heyliger <roddyheyliger at gmail.com>
•Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2011 11:28:52 -0400


News Release

Department of Communication (DCOMM), Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, Sint Maarten D.W.I. Tel. 00-599-543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net;

For Immediate Release: Monday, August 01, 2011/N209/ESF-8 – ANNOUNCEMENT 11.30AM

EOC recommends continued vigilance; System continues to show signs of development

GREAT BAY, Sint Maarten (DCOMM) – The Emergency Operations Center (EOC) on Monday morning continues to closely monitor the approaching tropical wave/low pressure system.

A recent hurricane center reconnaissance investigation on Monday morning revealed that the tropical wave does not have a closed surface circulation center, but did find winds of near tropical storm force.

The 10 Emergency Support Functions (ESFs) will remain on alert Monday and Tuesday.

The Department of Disaster Management (ODM) advises the population to continue to monitor the progress of the approaching Tropical Wave (TW)/low pressure system for possible further development.

According to the National Hurricane Center, if the system develops into a storm, tropical storm watches and warnings could be issued at very short notice for the Leeward Islands which includes Sint Maarten.

The ODM will continue to closely monitor this system for possible further development and the public will be duly informed.


# # #
Roddy Heyliger (roddyheyliger at gmail.com; 00 599 581-6323)

Department of Communication (DCOMM), Sint Maarten

Best regards,
Roddy Heyliger - BB pin 21437DBE

P.O.Box 945, Philipsburg, St. Maarten
Cell: 5204217-primary, 5816323-secondary

Public Relations & Communications
Secondary Email: roddyheyliger at yahoo.com

[AJC3]

There are an awful lot of arc clouds on the NW side of the system, emanating outward, and near the small vort Aric pointed out this morning. Indicates that the dry air to the north is still being ingested, and is likely a big hindrance to 91L spinning up.

[Aric Dunn]

It looks the GFS is consolidating the MLC, not the vort to the NW

how did you figure that.. they are so close to each other right now.. the resolution is not that good.

The vort to the NW is already ia good bit north of where the GFS is consolidating the surface low in about 24 hours and the vort already has a bit north of west movement. I think once the MLC gets into the Caribbean and surface conv. increases, that is the area to watch.

ok. well not sure the GFS really know whats there.. someone just said .. start here.. lol

[Weatherfreak000]

Pressure center is displaced SW of the convection, as verified by recon. Maybe 14N/58.3W. Convection does appear to be building closer to the weak LLC. If that happens, then it will become Emily. But it's very disorganized presently.

I think WXMAN is right about convection building over what does appear to be a llc. I'm a little more optimistic about an upgrade than many of you seem to be this morning. I think we have a small system brewing here just east of the islands. And as wxman notes the pressure center is now a little further SW than originally expected, so I think when the upgrade to cyclone comes (sooner rather than later I think) initialization will be a little further south. We'll see if models react with a somewhat later than expected tug north (and a further west trend) because of the smaller size of the system. Just the opinion of an amateur.

Note that I said convection is building CLOSER TO the apparent weak LLC, not over. It's still maybe 75-100 miles NE of the weak LLC. That rotation is so weak it could dissipate at any time. No TS today, most likely.

Your thoughts about potential track today?

[FireRat]

Whether it's named or not by the time it gets to the islands will have little effect, they should be expecting pretty heavy storms and flooding concerns in the Leewards as the system passes by later today and tomorrow. This strong low is still going to bring what could be dangerous flooding rain, so I hope the islanders are at least aware of "bad weather" heading their way.

[KWT]

Its going to pick up some latitude no matter whether its weak or not when it goes between 65-75W given the weakness that never totally closes up...however a weaker system is more likely to either brush Hispaniola or even to stay to the south.

If it stays weak for too long a Mexico/Texas threat down the line becomes probable...

Going to be interesting, I think the 12z GFS will get into the gulf this run!

[Ivanhater]

Yeah Aric, who the heck knows Lol. I'm starting to lean more and more toward development tomorrow morning in the Eastern Caribbean when the MLC and weak surface refelction slow down and get more stacked.

[Gustywind]

It's kinda scary as to how long this is taking to develop. Unless residents on the islands already know about this, they will have mere hours to prepare if it is classified.

Absolutely and that's why that's often a worrying scenario... but let's wait and see and hoping for the best if 91L continues to pose a threat for the Northern Windwards/Leewards.

[Aric Dunn]

There are an awful lot of arc clouds on the NW side of the system, emanating outward, and near the small vort Aric pointed out this morning. Indicates that the dry air to the north is still being ingested, and is likely a big hindrance to 91L spinning up.

yeah noticed that. but its the most defined anything with the system so far and that vort seems to be getting more defined.. and the weak llc to the south looks to be collapsing a little .. although still present... any thoughts ?

Also still NW winds reported in dominica ..

[KWT]

The vort to the NW is already ia good bit north of where the GFS is consolidating the surface low in about 24 hours and the vort already has a bit north of west movement. I think once the MLC gets into the Caribbean and surface conv. increases, that is the area to watch.

Interesting ideas, I've tended to find its rather uncoomon for it to work that way, if there is a surface circulation that will be where the whole thing will eventually focus upon, its normally works as bottom up, rather then top down.

Still its not an absolute thing and the MLC is still pretty strong, as backed up by the winds found by recon.

[stormreader]

Its going to pick up some latitude no matter whether its weak or not when it goes between 65-75W given the weakness that never totally closes up...however a weaker system is more likely to either brush Hispaniola or even to stay to the south.

If it stays weak for too long a Mexico/Texas threat down the line becomes probable...

Going to be interesting, I think the 12z GFS will get into the gulf this run!

I know its early--but this really is beginning to look GOM. I've been saying E GOM, and I still think thats a reasonable bet, but beginning to wonder myself if further west in GOM is possible. But still for now---E GOM.

[Ivanhater]

66 hours....weakening as the surface circulation is likely brushing the southern coast of Haiti.



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[fci]

That plot is from last night. Current plot is less recurvy. Eirher way, recurve or not, florida is part of this now.

That's because it hasn't developed. Don't get TOO excited there for some action. Now..assuming you wanna see how this whole thing turns out (like me) you need to be getting VERY worried because if this doesn't start getting it's act together, and soon, SFL will likely be out of the ballgame.

It has now become a matter of timing. Very exciting time to be a weather enthusiast.

I'm not getting too excited about anything. I pointed out trends in the models, how Florida was now in the model cross chairs. Simple observations, which for some reason you think was me spreading misinformation. SFL might be out of the ballgame later, but the fact is, it is in the game now. You don't want to accept that for whatever reason, but you need to realize that the models are currently pointing at SFL. I'm not -removed-. I am observing.

That plot is from last night. Current plot is less recurvy. Eirher way, recurve or not, florida is part of this now.

For now.. the longer this system takes to pull together the further west it will go. Could just continue west and slam into Central America.

Exactly, FL might just be involved for now, but that's no reason to rule it out.

I think it important to note that at this point with no named system and this only still an Invest; that this whole exercise is a "game".
It's a fun game watching the satellite and the observations from Recon, but until something actually forms; this is little more than us weather geeks playing Fantasy Hurricane.
There are no "crosshairs" and frankly, this is hardly worth getting worked up over either way.
Sit back, have fun, conject and keep it in perspective.
(And Jeremy; my comments are directed at all, not just you. When you first came on this board I was little harsh with you because you were very young and enthusiastic and let your excitement and wishes to have a Hurricane hit us get the better of you. It is amazing how you have grown and how you objectively contribute to the board consistently!)
fci