ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[Jagno]

Sorry... I meant west and north...before turning northeast

I know just thought it was funny.

Speaking of mistakes, I feel really terrible. DH has been in and out of the weather all day. I couldn't figure out why he wasn't wearing his new rainsuit and boots I'd gotten him a few days ago. It just hit me.................... they were still in the bags in my SUV. I just went out there and got them for him and he thought the timing was pretty awesome as well.

[WeatherCat]

It's blowing on the west end of Galveston ... lost power for a short while earlier. More wind than rain at this point, but we'll take what we can get.

[Ixolib]

Some serious dry air coming in....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

[psyclone]

I'll stick with the NHC on this one. If they say he's eventually headed NE then I buy it. JMHO

the front coming down doesn't give it much of a choice. it's gonna boot it northeast.

[Janie2006]

It's really interesting to see how far east the really deep convection is being displaced from the center of a 988 mb tropical low.

[weatherSnoop]

It's really interesting to see how far east the really deep convection is being displaced from the center of a 988 mb tropical low.

I was out most of the afternoon, saw a radar shot when I got home and was surprised how much precip moved to the west side. Looking at Mimic...I see what you are saying

[jabman98]

Light rain at my house, near downtown Houston. It's still dry under trees, so not raining very much. I'll take what I can get.

Some of the wind gusts earlier today caused branches to fall. Our trees are so parched they're dropping branches for no reason, so a strong wind will really cause them to snap off. It's an issue for causing downed power lines, etc. We've got flashing traffic lights near us due to the wind, and large branches down in streets.

[drezee]

GFS has Lee slip SE between 24 and 36 hours...this run could be quite interesting

[Will504]

What will be really interesting is to see if the west side moisture wraps all around the core and we see some re-intensification/organization. Lee really has never had west side banding, due to dry air over Texas filtering in. It appears that has substantially relaxed along with the shear. If Lee moves far away offshore and the new found west side banding wraps all the way around, things could get interesting.

Looking at the water vapor loop for the last several days no moisture was making it into Texas or to the SW of the circulation. While it is still sucking in dry air, Lee has made a major push of moisture to the west and now driving deep to the southwest over the last 4-5 hours as you can see on the wv loop. As the storm drifts around near or off the coast I wonder if it continues to push moist air up against that hot dry air to the south west, will it be able to turn off the tap of dry air and get the water flowing again, and for the first time wrapping around the center....

In my uneducated opinion I think the convection on the SW side will wrap around over night and explode when it hits the coast, back moving north again over SELA.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

One of our local guys was just showing some spagetti plots and some were showing loops in the gulf others were showing loops just west of BTR. Wasn't paying much attention we were celebrating the LSU win. GEAUX TIGERS!!!

[cycloneye]

NAM and GFDL are still alone as 00z GFS goes inland to the NE after 48 hours.

[Countrygirl911]

is is coming down good here it has not been that bad at all but i know there is more to come since we are under a wind advisory from 12am sunday to 7pm monday

[T-man]

What will be really interesting is to see if the west side moisture wraps all around the core and we see some re-intensification/organization. Lee really has never had west side banding, due to dry air over Texas filtering in. It appears that has substantially relaxed along with the shear. If Lee moves far away offshore and the new found west side banding wraps all the way around, things could get interesting.

Looking at the water vapor loop for the last several days no moisture was making it into Texas or to the SW of the circulation. While it is still sucking in dry air, Lee has made a major push of moisture to the west and now driving deep to the southwest over the last 4-5 hours as you can see on the wv loop. As the storm drifts around near or off the coast I wonder if it continues to push moist air up against that hot dry air to the south west, will it be able to turn off the tap of dry air and get the water flowing again, and for the first time wrapping around the center....

In my uneducated opinion I think the convection on the SW side will wrap around over night and explode when it hits the coast, back moving north again over SELA.

Nah, let Texas have it now, we don't need it to visit again.

[southerngale]

NAM and GFDL are still alone as 00z GFS goes inland to the NE after 48 hours.

And the DGEX.

[ROCK]

with the GFS history this year I dont know what to think....need the CMC tonight and the EURO to solve this...

[cycloneye]

NAM and GFDL are still alone as 00z GFS goes inland to the NE after 48 hours.

And the DGEX.


http://i52.tinypic.com/juu0i8.gif

Well,is not one of the principal or reliable models around

[southerngale]

NAM and GFDL are still alone as 00z GFS goes inland to the NE after 48 hours.

And the DGEX.


http://i52.tinypic.com/juu0i8.gif

Well,is not one of the principal or reliable models around

Hence the but then again, that is 3 models showing it. Not that I buy it... just saying.

[bamajammer4eva]

NAM and GFDL are still alone as 00z GFS goes inland to the NE after 48 hours.

And the DGEX.


http://i52.tinypic.com/juu0i8.gif

Well,is not one of the principal or reliable models around

Why do they always go with the same ole same ole. Different can be good. If NHC used the NAM it could make for an adventure.

[cycloneye]

Why do they always go with the same ole same ole. Different can be good. If NHC used the NAM it could make for an adventure

If they do that,their credibility would go down quickly.

[Nederlander]

Doesnt matter if it stays off the coast tomorrow or not, look at the water vapor. Dry air from TX is choking the core immensely.. Ill give this a 0.1% chance of strengthening off shore.. Seriously doubt precip totals tomorrow will be anywhere near what they were today..

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