ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[knotimpaired]

It looks the GFS is consolidating the MLC, not the vort to the NW

how did you figure that.. they are so close to each other right now.. the resolution is not that good.

The vort to the NW is already ia good bit north of where the GFS is consolidating the surface low in about 24 hours and the vort already has a bit north of west movement. I think once the MLC gets into the Caribbean and surface conv. increases, that is the area to watch.

Does this mean you think PR is still a player here?

[Aric Dunn]

thats a much better track for a system to take near hispanola.. the flow around the circ is not disrupted as much and can actually enhance the northern quad do to Bernoulli's effect between the mountains and the circ.

[cycloneye]

NNW to NW winds in Dominica

[Aric Dunn]

NNW to NW winds in Dominica

yep .. been watching it

[Ivanhater]

78 hours...opened up after crossing Haiti



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[jlauderdal]

http://www.accuweather.com

Concern for the U.S.

If, and these are big if's at this point, the system does become strong enough to turn north and survive the trip through the Greater Antilles gauntlet, it could be drawn in close to Florida, cross Florida reaching the Gulf of Mexico, or it could even make a right turn up along the Atlantic Seaboard.

"A relatively weak system, such as a tropical storm, could continue westward through the Caribbean,"...
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... -antil.asp

they are covered with that forecast, it will verify,

[Ivanhater]

90 hours



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[Aric Dunn]

well that hard right turn across the highest peaks does not help ... thought for a sec it was going to scoot past to the west side before turning..

[GCANE]

Seems to be hinting at firing closer to the LLC; albeit not very strongly.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 010845.jpg

[JPmia]

[quote="Ivanhater"]78 hours...opened up after crossing Haiti

Ivan that GFS run spells lots of trouble for Haiti, but appears to rough up the storm qutie a bit... i bet it will go further WNW in this run.

[wxman57]

Best rotation I'm seeing now is approaching 60W near 15N. Surface obs do NOT indicate an LLC there, though. Very weak low southwest of the convection appears to have dissipated. Conditions don't look good for any rapid development. Looking less like a hurricane threat in the Caribbean. It may not even develop an LLC.

[Aric Dunn]

96hrs barely hanging on .. although still has a closed system at 500mb

[Ivanhater]

102 hours...looks at that strong ridging off South Carolina (pink color)!



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[fci]

I know it's not the same set up but sort of reminds me of Ike when he edefied the models and kept trucking west.

I was thinking about Ike and how he did that last night. IMO, this is certainly a threat for Florida. And very well may end up being a threat for GOM down the road.

I keep seeing comparisons to Ike and other than it defying the model consensus, how does this compare?


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Ike was north of Puerto Rico and took an mostly unexpected track UNDER the Bahamas and crossed Cuba from the East, crossed into the Carib from the NE.
Maybe it would be better to compare this to storms that just trucked west across the Carib with no poleward turn at all.

[Aric Dunn]

Best rotation I'm seeing now is approaching 60W near 15N. Surface obs do NOT indicate an LLC there, though. Very weak low southwest of the convection appears to have dissipated. Conditions don't look good for any rapid development. Looking less like a hurricane threat in the Caribbean. It may not even develop an LLC.

50/50 for sure..

[SFLcane]

Those cuban mountains really dont mess around and can put any cyclone in hurting rather quickly.

[Ivanhater]

108 hours...big ridge!



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[Aric Dunn]

I dont know though.. that vort really seems to be organizing more and more.. seeing cloud lines developing east through Sw around it.. convection building still with it..

looks better and better.. the vort that is..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html


also barbados now reporting south wind.... dominica NW.... could be the LLC developing now..

[Dean4Storms]

Lookout South FL and Keys!

[Ivanhater]

120 hours



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