ATL: IRENE - Models

[clfenwi]

18Z HWRF. Final point is slightly southeast of Charleston, SC.


ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM IRENE 09L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 21

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -63.70 LAT: 17.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -65.20 LAT: 18.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -66.80 LAT: 18.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -67.70 LAT: 18.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -68.20 LAT: 18.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 987.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -68.90 LAT: 19.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 69.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -70.00 LAT: 19.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 67.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -70.70 LAT: 20.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 63.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -71.40 LAT: 20.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 67.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -72.00 LAT: 21.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 77.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -72.90 LAT: 21.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 70.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -73.40 LAT: 22.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 958.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 83.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -74.00 LAT: 22.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 949.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 99.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -74.70 LAT: 23.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 944.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 92.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -75.40 LAT: 24.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 940.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 98.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -76.00 LAT: 25.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 935.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 105.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -76.60 LAT: 26.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 112.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -77.10 LAT: 28.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 110.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -77.60 LAT: 29.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 106.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -78.10 LAT: 30.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 931.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 109.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -78.60 LAT: 31.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 932.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 103.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -79.00 LAT: 32.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 933.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 101.00
FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

[fci]

I live near Wilmington, NC. How does everyone feel about the threat level here? Doesn't look good to me if the models are correct. I have always seen the forecast tracks keep shifting east in years past.

I would pay close attention to the advisories and be prepared to take precautions for Irene if I lived up there.
The models are not being kind in their migration off the Florida coast and up to the SE CONUS.
The trend is your friend, unless of course the trend is towards you.......
Good luck and be ready if necessary

Pay close attention and prepare, but that being said and starring down 8 days worth of direct hits from the models here in Florida to watch them move off to the east now...ID SAY PRETTY GOOD ODDS THE MODELS AREN'T CORRECT

Good point, but 8 days worth of direct hits were from models predicting more than 5 days out.
The trend is to the east of Florida and towards GA/SC/NC, at this point.
Of course, the closer we get the more precise they will be, especially AFTER the effects of crossing island land masses.
No doubt that the models were clustered right at SE Florida up until the last few runs but we are getting within the 4-5 period now.

[vacanechaser]

18z HWRF 120 hours out, headed to S.C.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2120.gif

126 hours (last frame), off the coast: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2126.gif

GFDL up and running very soon.

wow.. impressive... thats a little further north along the carolina coast which is near what i was thinking... i would not be surprised by that in the least... with the forward motion and angle of attack, further north near the north carolina coast seems reasonable to me... but as we say, you just never know...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[otowntiger]

Storms paralleling the east coast of Florida rarely cause issues unless the core of the eyewall makes landfall.

Of course that depends on how close they are, how big they are and how strong they are, right?

Not really ... depends on the angle ....but as long as the eyewall stays off the east coast ...impacts are minimal.

So if for example a cat 4 with 135mph winds, extending outward in all directions say 20 miles with hurricane force winds outward to lets say 100 miles and the storm comes with 40 miles of the coast and parallels it all the way the impacts would still be minimal? Of course I know that those are extremely rare but I'd say it wouldn't be a piece of cake. I'm not implying that I think Irene will do that by any means just mentioning it for the sake of argument. I'm not the pro met just trying to understand.

'edit' Ok I see you said eyewall. In that case I agree except that the surf would be very dangerous and beach erosion would be very bad.

[vacanechaser]

Good point, but 8 days worth of direct hits were from models predicting more than 5 days out.
The trend is to the east of Florida and towards GA/SC/NC, at this point.
Of course, the closer we get the more precise they will be, especially AFTER the effects of crossing island land masses.
No doubt that the models were clustered right at SE Florida up until the last few runs but we are getting within the 4-5 period now.

well put.. we are approaching the window now of narrowing in on the track...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[SunnyThoughts]

just my feeling on Irene i see this as a Fla storm myself, really not ready for a hurricane here in Summerville sc myself,and our local weathermen ain't saying too much about it yet

I lived in summerville up until about a month before Hugo Hit up there. You guys stay safe. Nobody knows yet whether Irene will be paying you guys a visit yet or not. Its very possible.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Very worrisome track and trend from run to run for us in nc and sc. Over 20 years of observing here and this type of setup is not the one I want to see. Strong ridging and skirting the FL coast generally lead to a charleston to OBX landfall or at least trouble. I expect some shifting back and forth but from cape canaveral to cape fear at this point. I am also thinking this we could see a further eastward shift by Tuesday if we get the strenghting scenario. Expect the shift up the coast.

[UpTheCreek]

18z HWRF 120 hours out, headed to S.C.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2120.gif

126 hours (last frame), off the coast: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2126.gif

GFDL up and running very soon.

wow.. impressive... thats a little further north along the carolina coast which is near what i was thinking... i would not be surprised by that in the least... with the forward motion and angle of attack, further north near the north carolina coast seems reasonable to me... but as we say, you just never know...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Do you suppose, since the trend is our friend, it'll be even more eastward and landfall even more northward as time goes by? That's the feeling I get and believe me, I am NOT -removed-!

[johngaltfla]

just my feeling on Irene i see this as a Fla storm myself, really not ready for a hurricane here in Summerville sc myself,and our local weathermen ain't saying too much about it yet

I lived in summerville up until about a month before Hugo Hit up there. You guys stay safe. Nobody knows yet whether Irene will be paying you guys a visit yet or not. Its very possible.

LOL so did I! Small, small world...I remember talking to friends in Charlotte without power for two weeks.

I just wonder if the Gulfstream is going to take readings tomorrow of the ridge to give us some clue as to it's strength and to add more data into the models. Any updates on this because I think the NHC will remain conservative despite these model runs, IMHO, and not move the track that much.

[vacanechaser]

Of course that depends on how close they are, how big they are and how strong they are, right?

the strongest part of hurricanes in the northern hemi. are in the right front quad... that would put most of the strongest part out to sea... although, if the western eyewall crossed the coast, yes, it would be rough... but in a lot of cases, the worst would remain offshore..Charley was about as well balanced as you can get and very strong... when we went through the western side, the effects were far less... still strong, but once out of the western eyewall, conditions improved greatly...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[SouthernBreeze]

Storms paralleling the east coast of Florida rarely cause issues unless the core of the eyewall makes landfall.

Well put sir!
I have been trying to say that for a while but just didn't put the words together coherently.
If the trend continues, this will not be an issue for Southeast Florida if Irene is east of us

It may be different w/FL, but here at the SC/NC line, when Floyd passed by, well E of me the flooding was TERRIBLE - major roads closed for weeks, many businesses & houses flooded, etc! I've been here over 30 yrs & that was the worst flooding ever!

[psyclone]

even powerful canes taper down very quickly on their western flank. since the east coast of florida isn't super surge prone unless the eyewall is right on shore those scenarios aren't a huge deal for folks out of the surf zone. and the north carolina poster should note the original post.. fox13weather specifically referred to the east coast of florida.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[fci]

Storms paralleling the east coast of Florida rarely cause issues unless the core of the eyewall makes landfall.

Of course that depends on how close they are, how big they are and how strong they are, right?

So if for example a cat 4 with 135mph winds, extending outward in all directions say 20 miles with hurricane force winds outward to lets say 100 miles and the storm comes with 40 miles of the coast and parallels it all the way the impacts would still be minimal? Of course I know that those are extremely rare but I'd say it wouldn't be a piece of cake. I'm not implying that I think Irene will do that by any means just mentioning it for the sake of argument. I'm not the pro met just trying to understand.

'edit' Ok I see you said eyewall. In that case I agree except that the surf would be very dangerous and beach erosion would be very bad.

Which all ends up with the conclusion that if a storm passes Florida to the East, the effects are pretty minimal.

[vacanechaser]

It may be different w/FL, but here at the SC/NC line, when Floyd passed by, well E of me the flooding was TERRIBLE - major roads closed for weeks, many businesses & houses flooded, etc! I've been here over 30 yrs & that was the worst flooding ever!

well the rain from floyd was a different story altogether... it was phasing with the trough as it moved up the coast and that caused the rain to be wrung out like a wet towel.. it lifted the wetter moist air up and over and into cooler air from the west and caused extensive flooding even up here into virginia...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[fci]

Storms paralleling the east coast of Florida rarely cause issues unless the core of the eyewall makes landfall.

Well put sir!
I have been trying to say that for a while but just didn't put the words together coherently.
If the trend continues, this will not be an issue for Southeast Florida if Irene is east of us

It may be different w/FL, but here at the SC/NC line, when Floyd passed by, well E of me the flooding was TERRIBLE - major roads closed for weeks, many businesses & houses flooded, etc! I've been here over 30 yrs & that was the worst flooding ever!

Absolutely correct!
East of you takes a beating.
That's why, as explained in several other comments; South Florida being on the West side of a storm leaves us faily unscathed.
On a real close call, the Western Bahamas take the beating for us since they are either in the center or to the right (east) of it.

[jlauderdal]

[KWT]

HWRF bends back pretty close to NW in the end, goes quite far east by 96hrs but the bendback is quite impressive...as is the storms power at that point...take that track and Irene will be our first major hurricane...

[UpTheCreek]

Which all ends up with the conclusion that if a storm passes Florida to the East, the effects are pretty minimal.

I hate to parse words, but minimal to whom? I can only assume you're speaking of Florida?

[pgoss11]

HWRF bends back pretty close to NW in the end, goes quite far east by 96hrs but the bendback is quite impressive...as is the storms power at that point...take that track and Irene will be our first major hurricane...

Do you have a link to that HWRF run KWT? Thanks!

[psyclone]

Which all ends up with the conclusion that if a storm passes Florida to the East, the effects are pretty minimal.

I hate to parse words, but minimal to whom? I can only assume you're speaking of Florida?

again...yes, we are talking about florida.