SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone

[Chacor]

48 kt gusting to 58 kt at Lucinda on the coast now, as of 4:30 pm local time. Pressure down to 995 hPa in Cairns.

Pressure now rising at Flinders Reef, and winds are dropping. Peak recorded there was 70 kt sustained at 3 pm local (0500 UTC) and 90 kt gusts at 2 pm local (0400 UTC).

Pressure down to 969 hPa at Holmes Reef.

[Rod Hagen]

The BOM latest bulletin have it tracking at 248º to the wsw. To me, following the radar, it has looked more like 270º for the last half hour.

[AJC3]

What are people's thoughts on landfall? The BOM projection suggests between Innisfail and Cardwell, but to me the eye track recently from the radar looks much more like north of Innisfail, just on the south side of Cairns.

The problem in looking at short term radar movement and extrapolating a motion one way or the other is that a cyclone moves in trochoidal wobbles about a general track. Yasi has been moving along a general heading of about 245, but in shorter term 2-3 hourly wobbles varying between 260 and 230 degrees. So if the time lapse you're looking at covers a three hour period that includes just the extreme rightward or leftward wobble about the mean, your extrapolation will be prone to error, either northward toward Cairns or southward towards Townsville. I suspect you were looking at a loop which showed motion closer to 260.

If you get a chance, load up a longer term (6-12 hour) satellite loop to see just what I mean. This type of motion is typical for TC's.

[ManilaTC]

Hi, Clark here from manila.

Watching ABC News live as of the moment.

Yeah I have observed in radar that the eye has moved west over the last hour or 2 and is now going for a landfall between Cairns and Innisfail.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/radar.jsp?lt=radar&lc=019

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR192.loop.shtml

[Rod Hagen]

Thanks AJC3.

I've been trying to take the "wobbles" into account to some extent, but of course the actual duration of them compared to the time remaining before arrival matters quite a lot at this stage as it approaches shore. The BOM projections seemed to indicate that it was just about at the end of a slight "northward excursion a couple of hours ago, but instead it seems to me to have kept pretty much the same line pretty much due west since that time.

[AJC3]

Thanks AJC3.

I've been trying to take the "wobbles" into account to some extent, but of course the actual duration of them compared to the time remaining before arrival matters quite a lot at this stage as it approaches shore. The BOM projections seemed to indicate that it was just about at the end of a slight "northward excursion a couple of hours ago, but instead it seems to me to have kept pretty much the same line pretty much due west since that time.

You make solid points. Indeed, it will have to start wobbling back toward 240-250 very shortly if it is to make landfall anywhere south of Innisfail. To me landfall right on top of Innisfail seems most likely, assuming one more WSW to SW jog before landfall actually takes place.

[AussieMark]

the only cyclone in Queensland history this would even be comparable to would be Althea or Ada from early 1970s

[Chacor]

AXAU21 ABRF 020633
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0633 UTC 02/02/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.1S
Longitude: 148.1E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [248 deg]
Speed of Movement: 19 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 155 knots [285 km/h]
Central Pressure: 930 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 190 nm [350 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 240 nm [445 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 170 nm [315 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 40 nm [70 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/1800: 18.6S 144.5E: 045 [085]: 085 [155]: 951
+24: 03/0600: 19.9S 141.3E: 075 [140]: 045 [085]: 984
+36: 03/1800: 21.1S 138.6E: 110 [205]: 030 [055]: 992
+48: 04/0600: 22.1S 136.4E: 140 [260]: 025 [045]: 996
+60: 04/1800: 23.0S 134.7E: 185 [345]: 025 [045]: 996
+72: 05/0600: 23.7S 133.9E: 230 [425]: 025 [045]: 996
REMARKS:
The latest imagery shows Yasi as very symmetric showing a well defined eye with
surrounding deep convection. Dvorak intensity: Eye pattern white surround [6.0]
with OW/W [0.5] eye adjustment giving DT=6.5, adj. MET=6.0. FT/CI=6.5. Max winds
estimated at 110 knots [205 km/h] [AMSU/SATCON estimates at 125kn [1min]].
Surface observations indicate hurricane force winds extend about 50 nm [95 km]
to the southwest of the track.

At 0600UTC [16:00EST] Yasi was just 120nm from the coast and with a steady 19
knot WSW movement, landfall is estimated at about 1300UTC [23:00EST] with the
intensity maintained at category 5.

The combination of being intense, larger than normal [gales extending about 250
nm [460 km] to the south] having 19 knot motion and with high tides expected at
21:00EST there is a significant risk of very dangerous storm tides south of the
track.

Although the mountain ranges will greatly weaken the cyclone after landfall very
strong downslope winds may extend well north of the track on the seaward side of
the hills.

Cyclone intensity is maintained inland beyond 24 hours although gales later
Thursday afternoon will rely upon mixing of winds aloft south of the track.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/1300 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[Chacor]

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area from Cape Flattery to Sarina and inland to
Georgetown are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before
broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 6:01pm EST on Wednesday the 2nd of February 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Cape
Flattery to Sarina, extending west across the tropical interior to the Northern
Territory border.

At 6:00 pm EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 5 was estimated to be 165
kilometres east northeast of Innisfail and 190 kilometres east of Cairns and
moving west southwest at 32 kilometres per hour.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI IS A LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN CAIRNS AND TOWNSVILLE.

DURING THE EVENING, THE VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE OF CYCLONE YASI WILL CROSS THE
COAST BETWEEN INNISFAIL AND CARDWELL, ACCOMPANIED BY A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE
SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE.

Tropical Cyclone Yasi, CATEGORY 5, will continue to move in a west-southwesterly
direction and is expected to cross the coast near Innisfail close to midnight.

Coastal residents between Cairns and Ayr are specifically warned of an EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS SEA LEVEL RISE [i.e. storm tide] as the cyclone approaches, crosses
the coast and moves inland. The sea is likely to steadily rise up to a level
which will be VERY DANGEROUSLY above the normal tide, with EXTREMELY DAMAGING
WAVES, STRONG CURRENTS and FLOODING of low-lying areas extending some way
inland. The storm tide will persist for many hours after landfall of the cyclone
and secondary peaks may occur around high tide on Thursday morning. Higher than
normal tides will exceed the high water mark with damaging waves and flooding in
low lying areas in remaining warning areas to the south of Ayr.

People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take
measures to protect their property as much as possible, and be prepared to
follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by
authorities.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr are currently affecting the coast and
islands, and are forecast to spread into the tropical interior overnight and
west to Mt Isa during Thursday.

Between Port Douglas and Ayr these winds will become DESTRUCTIVE with gusts in
excess of 125 km/hr developing during the couple of hours, spreading into the
eastern tropical interior overnight. VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 290
km/hr are expected to develop between Cairns and Ingham during the evening as
the cyclone approaches and crosses the coast. These VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds will
also occur to the north of the cyclone and affect the Atherton Tablelands.

Due to the large size of the cyclone, people in the path of the VERY DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS are likely to experience these conditions for about 3 to 4 hours.

Winds are forecast to gradually ease about the east coast during Thursday
morning as the cyclone moves inland.

FLOODING RAINS will develop from Cooktown to Sarina during this evening and then
extend inland overnight.

People between Cape Flattery and Sarina and extending west across the tropical
interior to the Northern Territory border, should complete preparations quickly
and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 6:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 17.2 degrees South 147.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 32 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 285 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 930 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 7:00 pm EST Wednesday 02 February.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[ManilaTC]

Is it me or is it the eye tightening up?

[Chacor]

Giant swathe of Queensland now under a cyclone warning:

[Chacor]

Pressure down to 992 hPa in Cairns, while Lucinda was reporting 50 kt sustained winds with gusts to 60 as of 25 minutes ago.

[Crostorm]

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area from Cape Flattery to Sarina and inland to
areas east of Croydon to Richmond are requested to USE the Standard Emergency
Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 6:59pm EST on Wednesday the 2nd of February 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Cape
Flattery to Sarina, extending west across the tropical interior to the Northern
Territory border.

At 7:00 pm EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 5 was estimated to be 150
kilometres east northeast of Innisfail and 175 kilometres east of Cairns and
moving west southwest at 29 kilometres per hour.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI IS A LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

THE VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE OF CYCLONE YASI WILL CROSS THE COAST NEAR INNISFAIL
CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE
CENTRE.

Tropical Cyclone Yasi, CATEGORY 5, will continue to move in a west-southwesterly
direction and is expected to cross the coast near Innisfail close to midnight.

Coastal residents between Cairns and Ayr are specifically warned of an EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS SEA LEVEL RISE [i.e. storm tide] as the cyclone approaches, crosses
the coast and moves inland. The sea is likely to steadily rise up to a level
which will be VERY DANGEROUSLY above the normal tide, with EXTREMELY DAMAGING
WAVES, STRONG CURRENTS and FLOODING of low-lying areas extending some way
inland. The storm tide will persist for many hours after landfall of the cyclone
and secondary peaks may occur around high tide on Thursday morning. Higher than
normal tides will exceed the high water mark with damaging waves and flooding in
low lying areas in remaining warning areas to the south of Ayr.

People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take
measures to protect their property as much as possible, and be prepared to
follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by
authorities.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 km/hr between Port Douglas and Ayr
are expected to spread into the eastern tropical interior overnight. VERY
DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 290 km/hr are expected to develop between
Cairns and Ingham during the next few hours as the cyclone approaches and
crosses the coast near midnight. These VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds will also occur to
the north of the cyclone and affect the Atherton Tablelands.

Due to the large size of the cyclone, people in the path of the VERY DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS are likely to experience these conditions for about 3 to 4 hours.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr are occurring in remaining coastal areas
between Cape Flattery and Sarina, and are forecast to spread into the tropical
interior overnight and west to Mt Isa during Thursday.

Winds are forecast to gradually ease about the east coast during Thursday
morning as the cyclone moves inland.

FLOODING RAINS will develop from Cooktown to Sarina during this evening and then
extend inland overnight.

People in the path of the very dangerous cyclone should stay calm and remain in
a secure shelter, above the expected water level, while the very destructive
winds continue.
- Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone; very
destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time.
- Follow the evacuation advice or directions of Police, Emergency Services
personnel and local authorities.

People in remaining areas between Cape Flattery and Sarina and extending west
across the tropical interior to the Northern Territory border, should complete
preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 7:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 17.2 degrees South 147.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 29 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 285 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 930 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm EST Wednesday 02 February.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

Live rolling coverage from ABC News 24: http://australianetwork.com/video/vid/auv_news24.htm

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

That eye has really cleared out nicely. Not a good sign.

[Chacor]

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area from Cape Flattery to Sarina and inland to
the Northern Territory border are requested to USE the Standard Emergency
Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 20
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 8:07pm EST on Wednesday the 2nd of February 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Cape
Flattery to Sarina , extending west across the tropical interior to the Northern
Territory border.

At 8:00 pm EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 5 was estimated to be 165
kilometres east southeast of Cairns and 135 kilometres east northeast of
Innisfail and moving west southwest at 26 kilometres per hour.

THE VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE OF CYCLONE YASI WILL CROSS THE COAST NEAR INNISFAIL
CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT, WITH A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE AND BATTERING WAVES SOUTH OF THE
CYCLONE CENTRE.

Tropical Cyclone Yasi, CATEGORY 5, will continue to move in a west-southwesterly
direction and is expected to cross the coast near Innisfail close to midnight.

Coastal residents between Cairns and Ayr are specifically warned of an EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS SEA LEVEL RISE [i.e. storm tide] as the cyclone approaches, crosses
the coast and moves inland.

Higher than normal tides will exceed the high water mark with damaging waves and
flooding in low lying areas in remaining warning areas to the south of Ayr.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 290 km/h are expected to develop between
Cairns and Ingham during the next few hours as the cyclone approaches. These
VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds will extend inland to the nearby ranges including the
Atherton Tablelands.

Due to the large size of the cyclone, people in the path of the VERY DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS are likely to experience these conditions for about 3 to 4 hours.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 km/h between Cape Tribulation and
Ayr are expected to spread inland overnight.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr are occurring in remaining coastal areas
between Cape Flattery and Sarina, and are forecast to spread inland and west to
Mt Isa during Thursday.

Winds are forecast to gradually ease about the east coast during Thursday
morning as the cyclone moves inland.

FLOODING RAINS will develop from Cooktown to Sarina tonight and gradually extend
inland.

People in the path of the very dangerous cyclone should stay calm and remain in
a secure shelter, above the expected water level, while the very destructive
winds continue.
- Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone; very
destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time.
- Follow the evacuation advice or directions of Police, Emergency Services
personnel and local authorities.

People in remaining areas between Cape Flattery and Sarina and extending west
across the tropical interior to the Northern Territory border, should complete
preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 8:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 17.2 degrees South 147.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 26 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 285 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 930 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm EST Wednesday 02 February.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 FEB 2011 Time : 093200 UTC
Lat : 17:09:48 S Lon : 147:14:57 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 903.3mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.0 7.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.1mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 27 km

Center Temp : +13.5C Cloud Region Temp : -76.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF