WPAC: MA-ON - Remnants

[euro6208]

Ma-on is so large, it's being compared to the size of tip and i agree. for anyone who doesn't know, Super Typhoon Tip is the largest and most powerful tropical cyclone on the planet during the recon days of the west pacific but that ended in 1987.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Tip

watching the loops this evening, ma-on looks to have weaken a bit but i expect ma-on to intensify in the next few days.

i would place ma-on's intensity at 105 knots based on it's eye and overall organization.

[x-y-no]

Ma-on is so large, it's being compared to the size of tip and i agree.

Not even remotely close:

TYPHOON MA-ON IS MOVING WEST AT 12 MPH. TYPHOON MA-ON IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 130 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 190 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

From your linked article:

After peaking in intensity, Tip weakened to a 230 km/h (145 mph) typhoon and remained at that intensity for several days as it continued west-northwestward. For five days after reaching its peak strength, the average radius of winds stronger than 55 km/h (35 mph) extended over 1,100 km (685 mi).

[HURAKAN]

People often confuse Tip's record with its size on satellite imagery when the record is the area of tropical storm force winds. Two very different things.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Ma-on is so large, it's being compared to the size of tip and i agree. for anyone who doesn't know, Super Typhoon Tip is the largest and most powerful tropical cyclone on the planet during the recon days of the west pacific but that ended in 1987.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Tip

watching the loops this evening, ma-on looks to have weaken a bit but i expect ma-on to intensify in the next few days.

i would place ma-on's intensity at 105 knots based on it's eye and overall organization.

Who's comparing it to Tip? Please credit sources if you're going to make such contentious claims!

[euro6208]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1845

got this from weather underground so i liked to share it

[StormingB81]

So, at wont point if this thing dont make the turn in time would Okinawa start to worry?

[Typhoon Hunter]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1845

got this from weather underground so i liked to share it

No mention of typhoon Tip on Jeff's blog - no mention of typhoons at all...

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[GCANE]

Eyewall looks good but still struggling a bit with poleward outflow channel.

Front pushing down from Hokkaido may fill in the dry slot to the NW in a couple days and give Ma-on a boost.

[HURAKAN]

great image!!

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible image

[HURAKAN]

The eyewall is partially open

[StormingB81]

Took another jog to the NW but cant write any of that down yet cause evertime it went NW it then shot back over west..we shall see..

[Typhoon Hunter]

Haha well given what I was saying last night I look a bit of a mug this morning. It appears Ma-on hasn't strengthened and has maybe even weakened overnight. The joy of tracking and predicting TCs!

JMA still expecting RI over next 24hrs and have kept Ma-on at 85kts:

WTPQ20 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 20.8N 138.9E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 550NM SOUTH 250NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 22.8N 135.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 180000UTC 26.2N 132.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 190000UTC 30.5N 132.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

[Rgv20]

That is a nice looking Hurricane...ahh I mean Typhoon!



I hope everyone on Ma-on's path stay safe.

[supercane]

WTPQ30 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 1106 MA-ON (1106)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 160000 UTC IS FAIR.
TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE.
TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHWEST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

WTPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 21.1N 138.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 138.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.9N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.9N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 24.5N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 26.5N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 30.7N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 33.9N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 34.9N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 138.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 885 NM SOUTH OF
TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND
170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TPPN11 PGTW 160052
A. TYPHOON 08W (MAON)
B. 15/2332Z
C. 21.2N
D. 138.9E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS ADJUSTED EYE NUMBER OF 4.5. WITH A BANDING FEATURE
BETWEEN 1/4-1/2 DEGREE, ADD .5 FOR A DT OF 5.0. PT AGREES,
WHILE MET IS 6.0. FT BASED ON DT AND PT. EYE IS 16NM.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
15/2100Z 20.8N 139.2E TRMM
15/2104Z 20.7N 139.3E SSMS
HOUGH

[RobWESTPACWX]

Model consensus and warnings seem to be coming around and agreeing on how the ridge to the west will interact with this system.



I think Osaka and Kyoto really are going to get a face full of wind and rain here. Also even the Kanto plain will see typhoon strength winds, that is really across a large population area.

And last this is going to bring terrible weather to the regions effected by the tsunami, remember songda brought heavy mudslides up there killing over a dozen people because the soil is so unstable. Just something to not forget.

[JTE50]

I hope they are preparing now for what is sure to come Rob.

[Macrocane]

Very good looking typhoon. Hey guys when was the last time that a typhoon made landfall with such an intensity in Japan? I mean the intensity that JTWC is forecasting.

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 160300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160300UTC 20.8N 138.2E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 550NM SOUTH 250NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 170300UTC 22.9N 134.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 180000UTC 26.2N 132.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 190000UTC 30.5N 132.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON)//
WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 885 NM SOUTH
OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT EYEWALL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLE RAPIDLY WITH LARGE
FLUCTUATIONS IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. CURRENT IMAGERY
DEPICTS A 15 NM EYE SURROUNDED BY A NEAR-COMPLETE EYEWALL WITH A
BREAK (EVIDENT IN THE 152255Z SSMIS 91H IMAGE) OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. TY 08W REMAINS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT AND CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, ON THE VISIBLE EYE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
102 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. TY 08W IS CURRENTLY INFLUENCING
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W WITH
FUJIWARA CLEARLY INDICATED, HOWEVER, THIS INTERACTION IS LARGELY ONE-
WAY. THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE THAT TD 09W IS AFFECTING THE TRACK OF
TY 08W BEYOND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TRACK SPEED, AND ANY INTERACTION
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BASED ON THE RAPIDLY DECAYING TD 09W. OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS, TY 08W APPEARS TO BE TURNING MORE POLEWARD (290
DEGREES) BUT TRACK MOTION IS TROCHOIDAL.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TY 08W HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED SOUTH OF
JAPAN AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY POLEWARD WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE RECENT
UPPER-AIR SOUNDING FROM NAZE (47909) SHOWS SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW AND SUPPORTS THE RE-CURVE EAST OF 130E. TY 08W IS EXPECTED TO
RE-CURVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAPAN AND TRACK EASTWARD.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE UKMET MODEL WHICH INDICATES LANDFALL OVER KYUSHU. THIS FORECAST
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS STILL FORECAST TO DECREASE SOUTH OF KYUSHU, THEREFORE,
THE PEAK INTENSITY REMAINS AT 125 KNOTS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
AND STRONG VWS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT 70-85 KNOT
INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS NEAR TOKYO. LAND INTERACTION REMAINS THE
PRIMARY WEAKENING MECHANISM AT THE EXTENDED TAUS, THEREFORE, ANY
SHIFT IN THE TRACK POLEWARD WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM.//
NNNN

TXPQ26 KNES 160313
TCSWNP
A. 08W (MA-ON)
B. 16/0232Z
C. 21.2N
D. 138.2E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/5.5(PLUS)/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...DT=5.5 BASED ON LG RING WITH OW EYE SURROUNDED BY BL.
BL RING MEASURES .2 SO NOT THICK ENOUGH. INSUFFICIENT WARM EDGE TO ADD
BANDING. PT=6.0. MET=5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
15/2104Z 20.9N 139.2E SSMIS
...SCHWARTZ