WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm (14W/Mina)

[RobWESTPACWX]

Really? That high res and they don't post it???

his is the last Radar Image that PAGASA posted, about 3-hours old now.. remember that they don't really post the real-time link on their website which is such a shame really...

[phwxenthusiast]

Really? That high res and they don't post it???

his is the last Radar Image that PAGASA posted, about 3-hours old now.. remember that they don't really post the real-time link on their website which is such a shame really...

yeah i know... i created a twitter solely to nag them to post those radar images... hopefully they did... but yeah, it's not frequent and few and far in between...

[KWT]

Wow...that ECM run just shows Taiwan killing the whole system. That is likely if it gets too close to Taiwan given the terrain on that side. We've seen storms fall apart before just skirting the coast because of the coastal mountains there. Looks like JTWC pulled it back to the West some as well.

Thats well west of most of the previous ECM runs though, its going to be iinteresting to see if the 00z ECM does the same thing.

Thats actually not a bad radar image, shame they don't update it for us more often!

[phwxenthusiast]

latest radar image as of 6:30am Philippine Time (2230 UTC) from Baler Radar of PAGASA

[oaba09]

Here's the latest 5 day track from JMA:



TY 1111 (NANMADOL)
Issued at 21:40 UTC, 25 August 2011
<Analyses at 25/21 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N16°35'(16.6°)
E124°00'(124.0°)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 26/21 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°25'(18.4°)
E123°20'(123.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 27/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°20'(20.3°)
E122°55'(122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 28/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°00'(22.0°)
E122°40'(122.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area Wide 560km(300NM)

<Forecast for 29/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N23°25'(23.4°)
E122°50'(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)

<Forecast for 30/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N24°40'(24.7°)
E123°00'(123.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Radius of probability circle 700km(375NM)

[KWT]

Looks very well defined on that radar at the moment, eyewall looks very intense and strong looking at that radar.

[euro6208]

T6.5/6.5 NANMADOL



CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 912.2mb/143.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.3 7.3

This is probrably already a CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON!!!

[phwxenthusiast]

save this image guys! this is as perfect a typhoon can get on the microwave...

[euro6208]

whatever happens in the west pacific, stays in the west pacific!

simply amazing!

WOW!

i still can't get enough of our monster typhoons! i'm hungry for more ....

[KWT]

115kts probably too low based on that microwave presentation, probably 130-135kts is a better estimate IMO, looks super impressive right now...Luzon better hope it gains latitude very soon and hope its just rain and not severe wind they have to put up with.

[HURAKAN]

a monster of a storm

[KWT]

Woah now that is amazing!

No doubt this is a category-5 IMO looking at that presentation, thats mighty impressive!!

Outer part of the CDO already over NE Luzon, anybody in the area keep us updated on the effects please!

[euro6208]

115kts probably too low based on that microwave presentation, probably 130-135kts is a better estimate IMO, looks super impressive right now...Luzon better hope it gains latitude very soon and hope its just rain and not severe wind they have to put up with.

you're right. hopefully jtwc increases the 1 minute winds to around 130-140 knots or stronger because this is one. recon would be great for this powerful typhoon recon recon recon!

[oaba09]

It seems like agencies now think that the interaction w/ talas won't affect nanmadol too much. The eye looks very impressive.

here's the latest steering layer:

[phwxenthusiast]

115kts probably too low based on that microwave presentation, probably 130-135kts is a better estimate IMO, looks super impressive right now...Luzon better hope it gains latitude very soon and hope its just rain and not severe wind they have to put up with.

i completely agree with you...! by the looks of it this is a CAt 5 Supertyphoon...

it has been gaining a little bit of latitude over the past 6 hours... however, it has also been gaining (losing in this case) longitude, but the average movement is around 280-290 degrees...

[KWT]

I can't imagine that JWTC will have any choice but to up it alot, based on both the visable eye and the Dvorak estimates, its pretty evident its a 5 at the moment.

I tohugh the JWTC badly underdid things with 50kts as a peak forecast...BUT I didn't expect a 4/5 quite this fast!

[euro6208]

I can't imagine that JWTC will have any choice but to up it alot, based on both the visable eye and the Dvorak estimates, its pretty evident its a 5 at the moment.

I tohugh the JWTC badly underdid things with 50kts as a peak forecast...BUT I didn't expect a 4/5 quite this fast!

the philippine sea is the #1 area in the world for super rapid intensification so i'm not surprised. i'm just a bit worried jtwc might miss nanmadol's peak by a lot !

[oaba09]

I can't imagine that JWTC will have any choice but to up it alot, based on both the visable eye and the Dvorak estimates, its pretty evident its a 5 at the moment.

I tohugh the JWTC badly underdid things with 50kts as a peak forecast...BUT I didn't expect a 4/5 quite this fast!

Yeah, I guess nanmadol took pretty much everybody by surprise...

[KWT]

the philippine sea is the #1 area in the world for super rapid intensification so i'm not surprised. i'm just a bit worried jtwc might miss nanmadol's peak by a lot !

They may end up being a little too low but I'd be surprised if they brought this upto anything less then 130-135kts, its going to be hard to justify given the immense radar iamgery and Dvorak estimates.

Yeah there may not be as much interaction between the two systems, so track will be to the north then eventually NNE/NE...remains to be seen whether it interacts with Luzon first, may bring a halt to the RI that has occured in the last 12hrs.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 AUG 2011 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 16:43:32 N Lon : 123:49:41 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 912.2mb/143.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.1 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +13.8C Cloud Region Temp : -76.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 120km
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.2 degrees