ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[jes]

Never mind --- the plot map came up after my post

[senorpepr]

With Nate, 2011 becomes the 14th time since 1950 to see 14 named storms. Nate also becomes the 2nd earliest, topped by Nate 2005 by one day

[craptacular]

In case clfenwi is on a break (which we were warned might happen):

URNT15 KNHC 071940
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 21 20110907
193030 1905N 09311W 9899 00157 //// +212 //// 269042 044 038 002 05
193100 1903N 09311W 9880 00176 //// +212 //// 270042 044 038 001 05
193130 1902N 09311W 9902 00159 //// +214 //// 270042 043 038 001 01
193200 1900N 09310W 9887 00170 //// +211 //// 271042 043 036 006 05
193230 1859N 09310W 9888 00171 //// +211 //// 272043 045 038 004 01
193300 1857N 09310W 9894 00165 //// +214 //// 273043 043 039 002 01
193330 1855N 09309W 9895 00166 //// +214 //// 274041 043 038 001 05
193400 1854N 09308W 9880 00181 //// +212 //// 274042 044 035 009 05
193430 1852N 09307W 9879 00181 //// +211 //// 274043 044 037 002 05
193500 1851N 09306W 9912 00153 //// +216 //// 275042 044 035 004 05
193530 1850N 09305W 9860 00199 //// +215 //// 273043 045 040 002 05
193600 1850N 09303W 9873 00188 //// +215 //// 270042 043 042 000 05
193630 1850N 09301W 9917 00147 //// +220 //// 270041 042 040 000 05
193700 1851N 09259W 9890 00170 //// +219 //// 269042 042 037 005 05
193730 1851N 09257W 9893 00170 //// +220 //// 270039 041 041 000 05
193800 1851N 09255W 9900 00163 //// +220 //// 266040 042 036 000 05
193830 1851N 09253W 9904 00159 //// +220 //// 265041 042 037 000 05
193900 1852N 09251W 9874 00186 //// +219 //// 266038 040 039 004 01
193930 1852N 09249W 9895 00167 //// +219 //// 264038 039 037 001 01
194000 1852N 09247W 9916 00149 //// +220 //// 263039 040 037 000 05

URNT15 KNHC 071950
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 22 20110907
194030 1852N 09245W 9890 00171 //// +219 //// 263039 040 035 002 05
194100 1852N 09243W 9892 00170 //// +218 //// 259039 040 036 004 01
194130 1853N 09241W 9892 00170 //// +220 //// 260038 040 036 000 05
194200 1853N 09239W 9927 00139 //// +223 //// 259039 040 038 002 05
194230 1853N 09237W 9912 00151 //// +220 //// 257039 039 035 003 05
194300 1854N 09235W 9895 00166 //// +220 //// 256038 038 036 000 05
194330 1854N 09233W 9896 00165 //// +221 //// 258040 041 034 004 05
194400 1853N 09231W 9896 00166 //// +221 //// 256038 040 037 001 05
194430 1854N 09229W 9887 00174 //// +220 //// 252036 038 038 004 05
194500 1854N 09227W 9880 00180 //// +220 //// 250035 036 036 001 05
194530 1854N 09225W 9895 00167 //// +221 //// 249036 037 035 000 01
194600 1855N 09223W 9891 00170 //// +221 //// 249038 039 038 001 05
194630 1855N 09221W 9901 00160 //// +222 //// 249039 040 038 000 05
194700 1855N 09219W 9902 00161 //// +225 //// 248036 038 036 004 05
194730 1855N 09217W 9896 00166 //// +225 //// 250038 039 036 003 01
194800 1855N 09215W 9916 00147 //// +225 //// 248039 040 037 002 05
194830 1856N 09213W 9899 00162 //// +221 //// 246039 040 036 002 01
194900 1856N 09211W 9894 00166 //// +221 //// 247039 039 037 002 01
194930 1856N 09209W 9910 00152 //// +224 //// 244040 041 038 000 05
195000 1856N 09207W 9926 00137 //// +223 //// 242039 040 036 001 05

URNT15 KNHC 072000
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 23 20110907
195030 1857N 09205W 9904 00157 //// +212 //// 245036 038 035 001 05
195100 1857N 09204W 9894 00166 //// +218 //// 246039 040 038 001 05
195130 1857N 09202W 9913 00149 //// +221 //// 246040 041 039 000 01
195200 1857N 09159W 9911 00151 //// +222 //// 246038 039 036 004 05
195230 1857N 09157W 9913 00152 //// +219 //// 244036 037 036 001 05
195300 1858N 09156W 9908 00154 //// +221 //// 245036 037 036 001 01
195330 1858N 09154W 9871 00187 //// +221 //// 247038 039 038 000 05
195400 1858N 09152W 9905 00157 //// +226 //// 249038 039 035 001 05
195430 1858N 09150W 9900 00161 //// +228 //// 249037 038 034 000 05
195500 1858N 09148W 9887 00174 //// +225 //// 249034 035 034 002 01
195530 1859N 09146W 9898 00164 //// +225 //// 251036 038 035 002 05
195600 1859N 09146W 9898 00164 //// +225 //// 250037 038 035 003 01
195630 1859N 09142W 9901 00160 //// +223 //// 247037 038 036 001 01
195700 1859N 09140W 9908 00157 //// +220 //// 246035 036 035 002 01
195730 1900N 09138W 9899 00164 //// +216 //// 248036 037 037 000 05
195800 1900N 09136W 9805 00246 //// +211 //// 250037 038 038 000 05
195830 1900N 09134W 9804 00251 //// +221 //// 245034 036 035 001 01
195900 1900N 09132W 9867 00193 //// +228 //// 242032 033 031 000 05
195930 1900N 09130W 9913 00152 //// +235 //// 239033 033 034 000 05
200000 1900N 09128W 9936 00131 //// +236 //// 241033 033 034 001 05

[N2Storms]

[quote="bigdan35"]Good ole Joe

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Son of Lee threat to central Gulf coast late in weekend, Maria may be a problem for areas affected by Irene, at least to the Bahamas



I like Joe B but he must be looking at yesterday's runs. Almost every model now is jumping on board the GFS train and that is great news for residents of La, Ms, the Alabama coast and FL Panhandle...


http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/[/quote]

[KWT]

Amazing to think we are JUST behind 2005 in terms of number, if the season ended now it'd be a active year at least in numbers.

Dry air is a problem for this system but I do feel that as long as shear doesn't get too high its going to have a shot at being a hurricane.

[Air Force Met]

AFM Decoded

Avila/Pasch = Yes
Stewart/Bevin/Landsea= No
The rest are a toss up

Flip that....

Avila is working the desk right now...so be patient on the advisory...

[maxintensity]

This is not even a fair fight anymore. GFS punked out euro once again. It's getting ugly now.

Hmmm lets see.....the GFS never saw Don and Arlene in the carib...only a few sprinklers....the GFS totally tanked on the Irene sending it into NGOM, FL like 15 runs in a row..... Regardless of what 96L does the GFS has had far more issues this year after its upgrade.

Again, Euro sends Lee into NOLA with a 930mb pressure after looping around the gulf for 10 straight days. In fact, according to Euro Lee should just be smashing into NOLA at 930mb as we speak. Oh, and Katia is about to smash the outerbanks or NC, again according to Euro. Euro has been awful! A disgrace! Never again can we trust that model like we used to. AND Euro was just as horrible as GFS on Irene! In fact, euro was the worst performing model on Irene for a long time.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Just posting one wide view image:

[Air Force Met]

Good ole Joe

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Son of Lee threat to central Gulf coast late in weekend, Maria may be a problem for areas affected by Irene, at least to the Bahamas

I like Joe B but he must be looking at yesterday's runs. Almost every model now is jumping on board the GFS train and that is great news for residents of La, Ms, the Alabama coast and FL Panhandle...


http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/

Yep...he's wrong on this one. This is a fall like pattern and he's forcasting it like its summer. When these systems get caught in the Bay...they either spin and die or most likley go into Mexico (after spinning a while). The trough will not get re-enforced enough to pull it out...and the dry air will keep it from getting strong enough for it to pull itself out...so it sould have no choice but to eventually work its way under the ridge.

[KWT]

Well the models are quite agressive considering the set-up aloft but they are also coming into agreement on a Mexico landfall...

Which IMO is probably a little more realistic given the historical evidence.

GFS IMO is a little too far south-west...

[craptacular]

Heading back towards center.

URNT15 KNHC 072010
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 24 20110907
200030 1901N 09126W 9909 00153 //// +236 //// 238033 034 034 000 01
200100 1901N 09124W 9908 00154 //// +240 //// 240033 034 034 001 01
200130 1901N 09123W 9909 00153 //// +241 //// 240031 034 033 002 05
200200 1902N 09122W 9852 00204 //// +236 //// 237028 030 028 000 05
200230 1904N 09123W 9879 00182 //// +238 //// 235027 028 026 000 05
200300 1906N 09123W 9918 00144 //// +239 //// 233027 028 027 000 05
200330 1907N 09123W 9905 00156 //// +237 //// 234028 028 028 000 01
200400 1909N 09123W 9897 00162 //// +235 //// 236028 029 024 001 05
200430 1911N 09123W 9883 00174 //// +231 //// 237029 030 023 003 05
200500 1911N 09125W 9895 00163 //// +228 //// 237029 030 031 001 01
200530 1912N 09126W 9907 00154 //// +219 //// 245033 034 035 001 05
200600 1913N 09127W 9918 00143 //// +219 //// 247032 033 035 000 05
200630 1913N 09129W 9904 00155 //// +222 //// 249032 033 033 001 01
200700 1914N 09130W 9908 00153 //// +220 //// 247030 031 031 001 05
200730 1914N 09131W 9901 00157 //// +223 //// 242029 031 028 000 01
200800 1915N 09132W 9923 00138 //// +230 //// 243029 030 029 000 01
200830 1916N 09134W 9917 00142 //// +230 //// 239029 030 029 000 05
200900 1917N 09135W 9916 00143 //// +230 //// 237029 029 026 002 01
200930 1918N 09136W 9901 00155 //// +230 //// 237029 030 025 003 01
201000 1919N 09137W 9917 00140 //// +230 //// 235029 030 026 000 01

[Wx_Warrior]

"punked again"? LOL..Has many 6z and 18z gfs runs have been laughable this year? LOTS

GFS gets its first base-hit of the season. Starters for the Astros have a higher percentage than that.

[ROCK]

Good ole Joe

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Son of Lee threat to central Gulf coast late in weekend, Maria may be a problem for areas affected by Irene, at least to the Bahamas

I like Joe B but he must be looking at yesterday's runs. Almost every model now is jumping on board the GFS train and that is great news for residents of La, Ms, the Alabama coast and FL Panhandle...


http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/

Yep...he's wrong on this one. This is a fall like pattern and he's forcasting it like its summer. When these systems get caught in the Bay...they either spin and die or most likley go into Mexico (after spinning a while). The trough will not get re-enforced enough to pull it out...and the dry air will keep it from getting strong enough for it to pull itself out...so it sould have no choice but to eventually work its way under the ridge.

in other words....Texas is going to fry the remainder of the year...nice very nice....

[SeminoleWind]

This is not even a fair fight anymore. GFS punked out euro once again. It's getting ugly now.

Hmmm lets see.....the GFS never saw Don and Arlene in the carib...only a few sprinklers....the GFS totally tanked on the Irene sending it into NGOM, FL like 15 runs in a row..... Regardless of what 96L does the GFS has had far more issues this year after its upgrade.

Again, Euro sends Lee into NOLA with a 930mb pressure after looping around the gulf for 10 straight days. In fact, according to Euro Lee should just be smashing into NOLA at 930mb as we speak. Oh, and Katia is about to smash the outerbanks or NC, again according to Euro. Euro has been awful! A disgrace! Never again can we trust that model like we used to. AND Euro was just as horrible as GFS on Irene! In fact, euro was the worst performing model on Irene for a long time.

Actually the euro was about the best performer when it came to Irene.

[KWT]

Yep...he's wrong on this one. This is a fall like pattern and he's forcasting it like its summer. When these systems get caught in the Bay...they either spin and die or most likley go into Mexico (after spinning a while). The trough will not get re-enforced enough to pull it out...and the dry air will keep it from getting strong enough for it to pull itself out...so it sould have no choice but to eventually work its way under the ridge.

Yeah history pretty strongly supports that idea, September is probably still a little early for this sort of system to lift out NNE/NE from this position unless it bombs.

I don't think conditions are that bad, there is dry air about, some very strong dry air to the north BUT if there isn't any shear, the dry air is going to be kept at bay to some degree.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

"punked again"? LOL..Has many 6z and 18z gfs runs have been laughable this year? LOTS

GFS gets its first base-hit of the season. Starters for the Astros have a higher percentage than that.

That is good stuff!!!

[vbhoutex]

AFM, please tell me that at least deep south TX has a chance to get some rain from this?

Perhaps a little...but I don't think the EURO is right...never have. There is a LOT of dry air camped over the Gulf and I just don't see it modifying quick enough.

I only have a little hope for this one giving us some relief. Do you think the WGOM is shutting down after this system?

I'm definitely not AFM but it is that time of year for the WGOM give or take a week or so. With a front this strong my amateur opinion is that the answer is yes. Of course with the tropics NOTHING is absolute.

[Tireman4]

Gee, I wonder what we did before the models? Intuition? Hunches? I wonder how many were correct?

[jasons2k]

I just saw the NWS FWD home page, graphic sums it up.

So irritating. Why can't there be a ridge over the SE US to steer it this way? We just can't catch a break to save us. The only time NW flow aloft is good for us is in May (plains storms migrate down overnight), and last May we got nothing from it.

[craptacular]

URNT15 KNHC 072020
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 25 20110907
201030 1921N 09138W 9914 00143 //// +230 //// 236029 031 028 002 01
201100 1922N 09139W 9915 00140 //// +230 //// 237030 031 027 001 01
201130 1923N 09140W 9914 00141 //// +230 //// 232030 031 028 000 01
201200 1924N 09141W 9918 00137 //// +230 //// 236029 030 022 004 01
201230 1925N 09142W 9912 00141 //// +230 //// 235029 030 026 001 01
201300 1926N 09143W 9918 00136 //// +230 //// 236029 030 027 002 01
201330 1927N 09144W 9919 00134 //// +230 //// 235029 030 026 002 01
201400 1928N 09146W 9914 00138 //// +230 //// 233029 030 027 000 01
201430 1929N 09147W 9911 00141 //// +230 //// 231029 030 028 000 01
201500 1930N 09148W 9910 00139 //// +231 //// 234030 031 028 001 01
201530 1931N 09149W 9885 00161 //// +230 //// 234031 032 029 002 01
201600 1932N 09150W 9887 00157 //// +228 //// 227029 030 028 001 01
201630 1933N 09151W 9899 00147 //// +227 //// 227030 032 028 003 01
201700 1934N 09152W 9901 00145 //// +227 //// 222029 031 026 004 01
201730 1935N 09153W 9911 00134 //// +232 //// 221029 030 025 006 01
201800 1937N 09154W 9886 00154 //// +219 //// 223029 030 031 004 05
201830 1938N 09156W 9868 00170 //// +229 //// 228031 033 031 001 01
201900 1939N 09157W 9882 00157 //// +233 //// 234032 033 032 006 01
201930 1940N 09158W 9893 00146 //// +233 //// 230031 033 030 001 05
202000 1941N 09159W 9903 00136 //// +239 //// 234031 032 031 001 05