ATL: IRENE - Models

[Evil Jeremy]

102 hours, off of SW Florida coast:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL102.gif

[AdamFirst]

18z GFS Ensemble at 108hr

Identical to EURO ensemble, riding parallel to FL coast heading NW-NNW

[SFLcane]

18Z GFDL into the keys.

[KWT]

Still a west outlier, heading up the spine of Cuba...aka yesterdays models...

Whilst I wouldn't rule it out, because who knows it might have a better grip on the upper ridge, it does seem a rather unlikely track based on what the models are doing with it today.

[rockyman]

Large shift west...into eastern GOMEX

[Scorpion]

Very big shift west.. wow thats a huge spread. Panhandle to NC.

[Evil Jeremy]

126 hours out (final frame): Headed towards the Panhandle:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL126.gif

[KWT]

Very strong run this time round, gets down to 957mbs in the E.Gulf.

Hard to believe this when its been too far south on nearly every one its runs in the last 36hrs on the intial motion of this system.

[vacanechaser]

gfdl headed for the florida panhandle... seems out of touch to me.. at least right now



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Evil Jeremy]

So from this run, GFS very very slight shift west, GFDL big shift west, and HWRF big shift east.

[AdamFirst]

For the record, 12z GFDL had a landfall near Naples-Everglades City.

Looks like the core misses the SW Florida coast on this run.

[tolakram]

saved image

[stormreader]

GFDL running:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html

Key will be to see whether it continues to be a west outlier with the UKMO or whether it comes into line with all the other models...

This is what I find interesting. Mentioned it earlier. Its true that the general tendency of some of the more respected models has been a little east. But the GFDL and the UKMET are further WEST than previous runs!

[GreenWinds]

Still a west outlier, heading up the spine of Cuba...aka yesterdays models...

Whilst I wouldn't rule it out, because who knows it might have a better grip on the upper ridge, it does seem a rather unlikely track based on what the models are doing with it today.

You are right, but it's somewhat significant that GFDL is one of the more reliable models and that it has been rather consistent with an EGOM solution.

Now if we were talking about CMC or HWRF, that would be a different story!

[stormreader]

So from this run, GFS very very slight shift west, GFDL big shift west, and HWRF big shift east.

Which to me means less certainty. Which is not what you would expect as time begins to narrow down some. Also not what you would expect if the steering currents were all that plain and simple as seemed to be the case yesterday.

[Scorpion]

Hopefully the GIV data will help sort things out..

[ROCK]

Too much consensus now to go with the GFDL run IMO....all of the big boys have the EC runs.....HWRF is jacked and has been since they intro'ed it....

[NDG]

The thing that I don't get is that earlier in the season the GFDL was right bias, so now all the sudden is left bias, hmm.

[GreenWinds]

So from this run, GFS very very slight shift west, GFDL big shift west, and HWRF big shift east.

This is why the Florida peninsula is not clear of feeling the inner core. It looked like the general consensus on the forum from today's earlier model runs was that Florida would only feel fringe effects with the eyewall well offshore.

Needless to say, I'd say the Carolinas have the best chance presently.

[SFLcane]

The ECM ensembles bring irene fairly close to sfl.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens.html