ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

Can we get someone to do the google images..

[Wx_Warrior]

One reason: GFS

[KWT]

i thought this thing was gonna develop two days ago...instead it keeps looking worse. tough to imagine the nhc not slowly dropping down development chances. it looks pathetic right now.

I'd personally have taken it down to 80%. Its got alot of work to do, but then again I've seen systems look MUCH worse only to develop just 36hrs later. Take a look at Don, that looked like nothing 36hrs before development but it developed quite neatly, even if it didn't do much afterwards.

[KWT]

Has to be a TUTT on the SW periphery of the ridge?

Could be, but then again still seems abit odd for a developing system?

[Aric Dunn]

i thought this thing was gonna develop two days ago...instead it keeps looking worse. tough to imagine the nhc not slowly dropping down development chances. it looks pathetic right now.

I'd personally have taken it down to 80%. Its got alot of work to do, but then again I've seen systems look MUCH worse only to develop just 36hrs later. Take a look at Don, that looked like nothing 36hrs before development but it developed quite neatly, even if it didn't do much afterwards.

sorry honestly as far as organization goes. its not about the mid levels its about eh surface.. so from that perspective this is the best its ever been organized...

[RL3AO]

627
URNT15 KNHC 011646
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 04 20110801
163600 1623N 06148W 5277 05450 0276 -033 -136 087018 019 030 000 00
163630 1622N 06146W 5274 05455 0275 -035 -137 090017 017 061 000 03
163700 1621N 06143W 5277 05444 0272 -031 -139 091016 017 089 000 03
163730 1620N 06141W 5277 05438 0266 -030 -140 089017 018 100 000 03
163800 1619N 06139W 5277 05453 0268 -031 -141 091015 016 130 000 03
163830 1618N 06137W 5277 05428 0268 -030 -141 092015 015 065 000 03
163900 1617N 06135W 5275 05425 0268 -030 -142 091015 015 064 000 03
163930 1616N 06133W 5276 05413 0252 -032 -142 092015 016 /// /// 03
164000 1615N 06130W 5278 05424 0241 -035 -143 090016 017 /// /// 03
164030 1614N 06128W 5275 05380 0202 -035 -143 087016 017 /// /// 03
164100 1613N 06126W 5277 05398 0233 -035 -144 086017 017 /// /// 03
164130 1613N 06123W 5277 05445 0273 -034 -144 085017 018 085 000 03
164200 1612N 06121W 5276 05445 0274 -035 -144 085018 018 031 000 00
164230 1611N 06119W 5277 05451 0274 -034 -143 085017 017 026 000 00
164300 1610N 06117W 5277 05446 0275 -035 -143 085017 017 025 000 00
164330 1609N 06114W 5277 05450 0275 -034 -144 087017 018 025 000 00
164400 1608N 06112W 5277 05449 0276 -032 -145 087016 017 026 001 00
164430 1607N 06110W 5278 05451 0276 -030 -146 090017 017 026 000 00
164500 1607N 06108W 5277 05452 0275 -029 -147 092017 017 027 000 00
164530 1606N 06105W 5277 05453 0277 -030 -147 092017 018 026 001 00
$$
;

[SouthDadeFish]

Lol... here come the "it looks pathetic" comments... right when it has its best developed vortex yet. People act like this is the first unstacked system they've seen.

[Bocadude85]

I am not sure what recon is going to find out there..

[ROCK]

One reason: GFS

agree....feedback issues....

[RL3AO]

[Battlebrick]

when did NHC issue their 100%? I want to know when the 48 hours is up

[fci]

Best rotation I'm seeing now is approaching 60W near 15N. Surface obs do NOT indicate an LLC there, though. Very weak low southwest of the convection appears to have dissipated. Conditions don't look good for any rapid development. Looking less like a hurricane threat in the Caribbean. It may not even develop an LLC.

This system has been for sure a very interesting one to study in many aspects especially,how slow things evolve in systems that are in the Tropical Atlantic. Will this be the pattern for the rest of the season? Ok that is for a topic at Talking Tropics. When it started as a invest,it looked omminous,how the models had the intensity as a cat 1 where it is now.But all is now good for the Lesser Antilles islands,only showers and some winds,but compared to what it was on the tables 3 days ago,is nothing.

Yes, for now; it seems that you guys dodged a bullet.

[Aric Dunn]

sure hope they descend soon.. or they are going to pass the vort .. lol

[SouthDadeFish]

when did NHC issue their 100%? I want to know when the 48 hours is up

They never said 100%. They said near 100%. They always left room for the slight possibility it wouldn't develop.

[ROCK]

12Z NOGAPS..108hr through the FL straits

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ConvergenceZone]

Lol... here come the "it looks pathetic" comments... right when it has its best developed vortex yet. People act like this is the first unstacked system they've seen.

Yes, but when some online Meteorogolists start mentioning that it's looking pathetic as well, shouldn't we taken listen?
I would think so.

[RL3AO]

when did NHC issue their 100%? I want to know when the 48 hours is up

Their first 100% will bust at 2am tonight.

[fci]

NHC has been offering up this 70%, 80%, near 100% chances now for how many days in a row? Now it may never develop? Wow, just wow. Guess it just goes to show the tropics are hard to predict, even sometimes for the professionals at the NHC.

You are absolutely correct. NO ONE can accurately predict the tropics.
Which makes those "I told you so" folks even more ridiculous as they don't know and oft times pretend that they do.
Like I said on another post, we weather fanatics are playing a game of Fantasy Hurricane when we predict these Invests and many systems too.
Where this board comes into serious play is when something "Real" is there and then the information from the Pro Mets and well informed amatuers becomes vital.
Until then, it is a game of Fantasy Hurricane to watch, play and enjoy....and not take too seriously!

[SouthDadeFish]

Lol... here come the "it looks pathetic" comments... right when it has its best developed vortex yet. People act like this is the first unstacked system they've seen.

Yes, but when some online Meteorogolists start thinking that it's looking pathetic as well, shouldn't we taken listen?
I would think so.

Which pro met said it looked "pathetic?"

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... m8vis.html