ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

If it stays on its current path, it may barely make landfall and skim the coast of Puerto Rico

[SouthFLTropics]

Here's a recon view of the recent VDMs

http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/6951/recons.jpg[/img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Well at least recon didn't have to go far to get the VDM after taking off!

SFT

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220429
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 39 20110822
041900 1856N 06529W 8431 01555 0101 +142 //// 107048 049 043 005 01
041930 1856N 06528W 8434 01554 0090 +158 //// 106048 049 042 006 01
042000 1856N 06527W 8421 01563 //// +141 //// 106039 040 046 013 01
042030 1856N 06525W 8425 01559 //// +141 //// 103041 042 058 026 01
042100 1856N 06524W 8419 01566 //// +134 //// 095044 047 046 016 01
042130 1856N 06523W 8428 01554 //// +135 //// 103042 044 049 017 01
042200 1856N 06521W 8428 01556 //// +136 //// 111044 046 052 018 01
042230 1856N 06520W 8434 01550 0090 +140 //// 123046 048 043 014 01
042300 1857N 06519W 8436 01549 0089 +157 //// 121046 047 039 006 01
042330 1857N 06517W 8433 01556 0093 +155 //// 117044 045 042 005 01
042400 1857N 06516W 8430 01558 0096 +152 //// 117043 044 040 007 01
042430 1857N 06515W 8433 01556 0094 +154 //// 117042 043 040 006 01
042500 1857N 06513W 8423 01568 //// +133 //// 098044 046 047 019 01
042530 1857N 06512W 8428 01560 //// +131 //// 099046 048 052 026 01
042600 1857N 06511W 8438 01547 //// +127 //// 097044 045 058 035 01
042630 1857N 06510W 8411 01573 //// +132 //// 116050 055 062 034 01
042700 1857N 06508W 8438 01548 //// +133 //// 118057 062 054 019 01
042730 1857N 06507W 8446 01546 //// +137 //// 124048 052 044 013 01
042800 1857N 06506W 8429 01564 //// +143 //// 127042 046 037 009 05
042830 1857N 06504W 8425 01564 //// +135 //// 117036 040 041 030 01
$$
;

Another 62 kt SFMR reading, but a fair bit of rain.

[Dave]

[theweatherwatch]

what are the current chances of Irene reaching super typhoon status before making a possible landfall in the CONUS?

Not possible at all since we don't have Typhoons in the Atlantic. The Chances of it making it to Major Hurricane (Cat 3+) are pretty good depending on the amount of land interaction between now and the time it gets away from the Islands.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Irene looks like a hurricane at this point. Need data tho.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220439
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 40 20110822
042900 1857N 06503W 8424 01563 //// +138 //// 102043 048 048 038 05
042930 1856N 06502W 8440 01545 //// +132 //// 113045 047 053 023 05
043000 1856N 06501W 8434 01553 //// +140 //// 112039 042 053 026 05
043030 1857N 06459W 8434 01553 //// +128 //// 107049 054 059 030 01
043100 1857N 06458W 8440 01546 //// +131 //// 112057 058 058 029 01
043130 1857N 06457W 8441 01542 //// +131 //// 109054 057 055 029 01
043200 1858N 06456W 8423 01564 //// +131 //// 110049 053 049 021 01
043230 1858N 06454W 8439 01549 //// +140 //// 114053 057 046 017 01
043300 1858N 06453W 8435 01551 //// +140 //// 112048 050 046 013 01
043330 1858N 06452W 8433 01557 //// +137 //// 118054 056 044 011 01
043400 1858N 06451W 8426 01564 //// +136 //// 119049 050 049 011 01
043430 1859N 06449W 8428 01563 0102 +143 //// 122051 053 049 016 01
043500 1859N 06448W 8440 01551 //// +136 //// 119048 054 048 023 01
043530 1859N 06447W 8443 01549 //// +134 //// 118050 052 040 014 01
043600 1859N 06445W 8432 01560 //// +146 //// 119050 051 041 007 01
043630 1859N 06444W 8433 01561 0100 +151 //// 120051 052 041 007 01
043700 1859N 06443W 8422 01572 //// +142 //// 122049 053 041 007 01
043730 1859N 06442W 8426 01567 0100 +155 //// 122050 053 041 006 01
043800 1859N 06440W 8429 01565 0096 +160 //// 123049 053 039 007 01
043830 1859N 06439W 8436 01561 //// +147 //// 123051 053 038 007 01
$$
;

[Dave]

[Adoquín]

If it stays on its current path, it may barely make landfall and skim the coast of Puerto Rico

that is the worse case scenario as the whole island will deal with a system that will not weaken but rather will continue to incresse in power as it continues to pound us with the north side.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Wow that's a lot of rain with this system as it heads up the coast.

[Hurricaneman]

If it stays on its current path, it may barely make landfall and skim the coast of Puerto Rico

that is the worse case scenario as the whole island will deal with a system that will not weaken but rather will continue to incresse in power as it continues to pound us with the north side.

I think it will eventually move onshore, but by like 10 miles

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220449
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 41 20110822
043900 1859N 06438W 8431 01563 0096 +162 //// 124053 054 038 005 01
043930 1859N 06436W 8436 01558 0093 +166 //// 119051 054 038 007 01
044000 1859N 06435W 8450 01549 0096 +168 //// 122051 053 035 005 05
044030 1858N 06435W 8422 01578 0098 +158 //// 119050 052 /// /// 05
044100 1857N 06436W 8431 01566 0097 +160 //// 116050 051 036 005 01
044130 1856N 06438W 8430 01564 0095 +164 //// 120051 052 037 005 01
044200 1855N 06439W 8436 01555 0094 +156 //// 116047 050 037 007 01
044230 1854N 06441W 8435 01556 0094 +156 //// 120050 051 039 009 01
044300 1853N 06442W 8431 01556 //// +148 //// 116051 054 039 014 01
044330 1852N 06443W 8436 01555 //// +146 //// 111045 049 042 021 01
044400 1851N 06445W 8442 01551 //// +136 //// 115045 045 045 036 01
044430 1850N 06446W 8430 01556 //// +128 //// 110043 043 053 047 01
044500 1849N 06448W 8441 01550 //// +130 //// 113045 048 065 051 01
044530 1847N 06449W 8432 01555 //// +139 //// 113040 045 071 036 01
044600 1846N 06450W 8433 01558 //// +132 //// 133042 044 061 026 05
044630 1845N 06452W 8430 01558 //// +140 //// 133046 047 034 007 01
044700 1844N 06453W 8436 01554 //// +145 //// 130045 046 035 007 01
044730 1843N 06454W 8435 01552 //// +147 //// 133045 046 034 008 01
044800 1842N 06456W 8434 01552 0089 +155 //// 132047 048 033 006 01
044830 1841N 06457W 8436 01550 0086 +159 //// 134048 049 034 004 01
$$
;

71 kt SFMR, although in a fair bit of rain.

[Battlebrick]

71 kts SFMR.. taking that with a huge grain of salt.

[meteorologyman]

Since Irene may seem to skirt to south side of PR rather than through the center, will the Conus shift back slight west ?

[Dave]

[Bocadude85]

Hurricane conditions now forecast for Plam Beach County thursday night

Thursday Night: Hurricane conditions possible. Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 82. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=mfl&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=262&map.y=49

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220459
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 42 20110822
044900 1840N 06458W 8435 01548 0084 +159 //// 134047 049 034 004 01
044930 1839N 06459W 8435 01547 0082 +159 //// 135044 046 035 006 01
045000 1838N 06501W 8432 01548 0079 +160 //// 134048 049 035 006 01
045030 1837N 06502W 8436 01542 0077 +161 +156 132049 049 032 007 00
045100 1836N 06503W 8433 01546 0078 +158 +154 133050 051 033 006 00
045130 1835N 06504W 8429 01545 0078 +155 +155 131052 053 034 006 00
045200 1834N 06506W 8436 01538 0080 +149 //// 130054 055 036 006 01
045230 1833N 06507W 8427 01544 0080 +142 //// 134049 052 037 012 01
045300 1832N 06508W 8439 01529 0067 +148 //// 140053 055 039 011 01
045330 1831N 06510W 8430 01536 //// +153 //// 138048 052 038 007 01
045400 1830N 06511W 8437 01529 //// +150 //// 139042 043 040 007 01
045430 1829N 06512W 8432 01532 0063 +155 //// 140041 042 042 006 01
045500 1828N 06513W 8433 01528 0058 +159 //// 141042 042 042 004 01
045530 1827N 06515W 8432 01527 0054 +158 //// 141041 042 043 002 01
045600 1826N 06516W 8437 01520 0054 +153 //// 138045 046 045 006 01
045630 1825N 06517W 8430 01524 //// +147 //// 139047 049 043 008 01
045700 1824N 06518W 8434 01517 0045 +164 //// 141048 049 043 003 01
045730 1823N 06520W 8436 01513 0043 +164 //// 142048 049 043 004 01
045800 1822N 06521W 8430 01516 0037 +162 //// 141052 056 041 004 01
045830 1821N 06522W 8430 01510 //// +151 //// 142054 058 039 009 01
$$
;

[Kohlecane]

Hurricane conditions now forecast for Plam Beach County thursday night

Thursday Night: Hurricane conditions possible. Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 82. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=mfl&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=262&map.y=49

Lets hope for

[abajan]

I guess it must have been already discussed in the thread but what are the implications for Georgia and the Carolinas if the current forecast track pans out? I mean, before we were counting on the high mountains of the Dominican Republic to sap Irene's strength before heading back out to sea and eventually traversing Florida whose landmass, flat though it might be, would have also weakened her somewhat. Now it looks like she'll be over water longer.

[Bocadude85]

Anyone not watching the 0z models may want to check out the models thread.. the models have shifted west