ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[ROCK]

as of the latest satellite images and surface obs... its likely we now have our TD.... only recon can confirm for sure. but that vort continues to become more defined and expand and convection is developing and redeveloping near or over the center.. its moving real fast but looks like a TD to me..

agree...low level convergence increasing in that area....if it could just get rid of that parasite on its western flank....sheesh


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Blown Away]

91L already over 15N and looks to be heading for PR, maybe skims the N coast of DR?

what 91L?

Yeah, already way N of the 12z position.
http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 011353.txt

[OURAGAN]

the position of the LLC i see is 15N / 57,1W

[Blown Away]

the position of the LLC i see is 15N / 57,1W

12z was 13.9N/57.2W?

[RL3AO]

395
URNT15 KNHC 011706
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 06 20110801
165600 1548N 06018W 6026 04403 0101 +028 -109 073016 017 /// /// 03
165630 1547N 06016W 6282 04059 0105 +052 -101 066015 016 /// /// 03
165700 1546N 06014W 6537 03729 0104 +072 -090 059016 017 /// /// 03
165730 1546N 06011W 6779 03430 0103 +091 -079 063016 017 /// /// 03
165800 1545N 06009W 7025 03130 0101 +106 -065 070017 019 /// /// 03
165830 1544N 06008W 7283 02817 0097 +122 -051 072020 020 /// /// 03
165900 1544N 06008W 7283 02817 0093 +134 -041 086023 024 038 003 03
165930 1543N 06004W 7699 02346 0101 +142 -022 092023 024 036 002 00
170000 1542N 06002W 7827 02219 0114 +149 -007 091023 023 036 001 00
170030 1541N 06001W 7966 02069 0114 +157 +004 100024 025 034 002 00
170100 1541N 05959W 8158 01861 0114 +165 +015 115024 025 035 002 00
170130 1540N 05958W 8367 01645 0112 +175 +025 116028 030 035 004 03
170200 1539N 05957W 8569 01436 0120 +165 +035 123027 028 036 008 00
170230 1538N 05956W 8761 01245 0117 +174 +044 127029 030 038 008 03
170300 1538N 05955W 8926 01102 0129 +189 +049 123030 032 036 003 00
170330 1537N 05954W 9133 00890 0117 +203 +056 121030 033 035 004 03
170400 1536N 05952W 9360 00673 0110 +215 +063 120030 034 035 002 00
170430 1536N 05951W 9600 00443 0100 +224 +071 119031 032 036 002 00
170500 1536N 05950W 9759 00295 0095 +236 +081 113030 030 034 002 00
170530 1535N 05948W 9776 00281 0096 +229 +089 110033 034 038 007 03
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

its crossing 60w

[SouthDadeFish]

Well everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Call it pathetic if you wish, while I see a developing LLC.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

yeah, the model shifts are a bit disconcerting. Hoping for a dissipation or else Hispanola to shred whatever forms. paths over Cuba or even further west ithat end up in the gulf are scary scenarios I would rather not see come to pass.

[Dean4Storms]

NOGAPS thru 144 pretty much eastern Gulf after riding the north coast of Cuba and tracking over Key West then likely would be a Panhandle landfall like the CMC.

Cannot discount, both are just 75-100 miles further west than the 12 GFS. Outliers currently but inside a reasonable cone this far out with the synoptics at play.

[ROCK]

114HR NOGAPS....follows the CMC

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[RL3AO]

You might be onto something Aric. Recon might fly right past that area though.

[underthwx]

sure would like to see this remain a weak system and navigate its way here to Brazoria County Texas..........need some rain here

[OURAGAN]

take a look at the visible

[Aric Dunn]

operational ?

[KWT]

sure hope they descend soon.. or they are going to pass the vort .. lol

Looks like they are going to try and investigate the MLC again, they aren't going to find anything new.

One thing I'm noting is the way convection mnuch further south is backbuilding westwards, classic sign of convergence in that zone and I think that is probably similar to what is starting to happen with that eddy/weak LLC that is to the west of the MLC...

[Blown Away]

its crossing 60w

Yep, a little elongated N-S, but that is where the action is.

[HurricaneWarning92]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_91.gif

latest models

The HWRF model is not far eastern model anymore, and has a bend more to the west towards Florida. Also, notice how most models take it up the channel between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. That would not cause much disruption to the circulation as it heads wnw towards Florida, imo. But idk, just my observation.

[RL3AO]

[Aric Dunn]

they are flying through the vort now.. it looks like..

[ROCK]

Ivan....when you see the CMC barking up the same tree on consecutive runs and if the EURO follows here in a few then it might not be a bad track......funny all the talk of recurve has left the building...