ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Kohlecane]

Call me Crazy but i kinda want this thing to come this way For my name is Mr.

[Dave]

[southmdwatcher]

According to the TDWR from San Juan and the NHC 1am fix at 18.0N and 65.7W, Irene is coming onshore along the central/east section of Puerto Rico instead of wobbling and skirting along the southern coast.

[SouthFloridawx]

[supercane]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 220457
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE BEARING DOWN ON EASTERN PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 65.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WNW OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED BY DOPPLER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
65.7 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...
24 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PUERTO
RICO THIS MORNING AND NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN FAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND
IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER PUERTO RICO IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTER THE
CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 52 MPH...83 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED ON ST. THOMAS AND CULEBRA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY
LATE TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3
TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO
RICO...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...300 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BERG

000
WTNT64 KNHC 220505
TCUAT4

TROPICAL STORM IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
510 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

AT 436 AM AST...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 52 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH A GUST TO 71 MPH...115 KM/H WAS REPORTED ON VIEQUES..

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220509
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 43 20110822
045900 1820N 06523W 8436 01507 0032 +164 //// 140053 055 044 009 01
045930 1819N 06524W 8426 01513 //// +153 //// 141056 059 040 008 01
050000 1818N 06526W 8435 01501 0026 +162 //// 141060 061 041 005 01
050030 1817N 06527W 8430 01499 //// +155 //// 136057 059 043 014 01
050100 1816N 06528W 8429 01494 //// +145 //// 131060 063 047 010 01
050130 1815N 06530W 8436 01478 0007 +152 //// 131067 070 046 007 01
050200 1814N 06531W 8433 01468 9994 +159 //// 129074 077 056 005 01
050230 1813N 06532W 8427 01464 9985 +157 //// 131072 078 055 010 01
050300 1812N 06534W 8439 01442 9962 +168 //// 132055 057 058 001 01
050330 1811N 06535W 8432 01440 9939 +186 //// 132047 049 054 001 01
050400 1810N 06536W 8436 01427 9929 +187 //// 131041 044 045 002 01
050430 1809N 06537W 8436 01417 9918 +189 //// 128034 038 033 003 01
050500 1808N 06538W 8432 01417 9914 +186 //// 126024 029 029 002 05
050530 1806N 06539W 8437 01413 9908 +197 +176 139014 016 016 001 03
050600 1805N 06540W 8436 01415 9913 +194 +182 168004 007 014 001 03
050630 1804N 06541W 8432 01424 9919 +193 +179 240006 008 016 001 00
050700 1803N 06542W 8433 01431 9932 +185 //// 261015 020 016 003 05
050730 1801N 06542W 8433 01440 9937 +190 +173 249026 028 041 004 03
050800 1801N 06540W 8436 01434 9942 +183 //// 239033 034 045 002 01
050830 1800N 06538W 8432 01447 9954 +175 //// 230038 040 050 002 01
$$
;

78 kt FL (supports 62 kt at surface), pressure 991mb.

[Bocadude85]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 220505
TCUAT4

TROPICAL STORM IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
510 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

AT 436 AM AST...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 52 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH A GUST TO 71 MPH...115 KM/H WAS REPORTED ON VIEQUES..

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Battlebrick]

78 kts FL. I think we have a hurricane.

[CrazyC83]

78 kts FL. I think we have a hurricane.

That falls just short of supporting a cane, but with other data I would say intensity is 65 kt.

[Dave]

[Sanibel]

78 kts FL. I think we have a hurricane.

The eye structure on radar would certainly suggest it.

[Kohlecane]

LOok at that Circulation

and indeed, looks to have a formed/ing eye structure

[Adoquín]

big gust. All the dogs in the house went crazy.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220519
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 44 20110822
050900 1759N 06537W 8434 01451 //// +162 //// 229040 043 049 004 01
050930 1759N 06535W 8432 01462 9975 +168 //// 223042 043 049 003 01
051000 1758N 06534W 8433 01467 9983 +170 //// 221044 045 047 004 01
051030 1757N 06532W 8432 01476 9993 +164 //// 219048 052 049 007 01
051100 1757N 06530W 8433 01483 //// +143 //// 214049 051 049 014 01
051130 1756N 06529W 8437 01483 //// +144 //// 206051 056 055 029 01
051200 1756N 06527W 8448 01478 //// +140 //// 203055 058 059 028 01
051230 1755N 06526W 8426 01503 //// +137 //// 193053 056 058 034 01
051300 1754N 06524W 8431 01504 //// +130 //// 193054 055 057 028 01
051330 1754N 06523W 8430 01510 //// +141 //// 189053 054 047 014 01
051400 1753N 06522W 8433 01512 0048 +147 //// 191052 052 041 009 01
051430 1753N 06520W 8434 01514 0046 +154 //// 194050 051 041 011 01
051500 1752N 06519W 8432 01517 0048 +151 //// 195047 048 042 010 01
051530 1752N 06517W 8440 01512 0048 +158 //// 192051 051 041 011 01
051600 1751N 06516W 8433 01522 0052 +157 //// 189048 049 041 009 01
051630 1750N 06515W 8432 01526 0055 +155 //// 191048 049 039 009 01
051700 1750N 06513W 8429 01527 //// +148 //// 186045 047 040 017 01
051730 1749N 06512W 8439 01523 0056 +156 //// 189047 048 041 013 01
051800 1749N 06510W 8418 01542 //// +149 //// 190045 048 045 021 01
051830 1748N 06509W 8407 01554 //// +148 //// 185047 052 044 031 01
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

Notice the latest Recon fix appears to be well to the NW. Looks to be about to make landfall.

[Dave]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 220520
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 22/05:06:10Z
B. 18 deg 05 min N
065 deg 40 min W
C. 850 mb 1352 m
D. 55 kt
E. 043 deg 11 nm
F. 130 deg 78 kt
G. 043 deg 11 nm
H. 991 mb
I. 16 C / 1522 m
J. 20 C / 1516 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0309A IRENE OB 14
MAX FL WIND 78 KT NE QUAD 05:02:30Z
;

[Battlebrick]

How does Puerto Rico treat systems?

[Kohlecane]

I know this Probably has been posted but whats the Correction error on the models from this far out

[CrazyC83]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 220521
XXAA 72058 99181 70657 04385 99991 27218 24014 00582 ///// /////
92608 23615 22511 85346 20217 19005 88999 77999
31313 09608 80506
61616 AF302 0309A IRENE OB 15
62626 SPL 1808N06567W 0507 MBL WND 23514 AEV 20802 DLM WND 22509
990843 WL150 23015 081 REL 1808N06567W 050613 SPG 1808N06567W 050
736 =
XXBB 72058 99181 70657 04385 00991 27218 11850 20217 22843 19414
21212 00991 24014 11989 25014 22986 23015 33913 23512 44898 21506
55858 19006 66843 19004
31313 09608 80506
61616 AF302 0309A IRENE OB 15
62626 SPL 1808N06567W 0507 MBL WND 23514 AEV 20802 DLM WND 22509
990843 WL150 23015 081 REL 1808N06567W 050613 SPG 1808N06567W 050
736 =
;

991/14 kt. Pressure right now around 990mb.