ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

I wouldn't put a lot of faith in the NOAA2 numbers unless AF307 confirms them.

Which numbers? and why not?

The supposed 66 kt SFMR winds.

Oh of course, there was a very strong rain rate in that report. I really believe recon will find a steadily dropping pressure with the current convection firing though.

[lrak]

Is that High still progged to move east?

It did move east...and is already moving back west.

Are ya'll talking about it increasing to a Hurricane? Should I get the wood out I want surf, rain, and not to lose power in that order.

thanks

[SunnyThoughts]

Latest Visual

[Dave]

Drop from NOAA2

000
UZNT13 KWBC 282258
XXAA 78228 99243 70914 08241 99007 26200 20526 00065 25200 20532
92751 22801 20515 85488 19403 21513 88999 77999
31313 09608 82152
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 0304ADON OB 05
62626 REL 2425N09136W 215234 SPG 2427N09135W 215611 WL150 20530 0
85 DLM WND 20015 007752 MBL WND 20526=
XXBB 78228 99243 70914 08241 00007 26200 11999 25200 22784 16805
33751 14200
21212 00007 20526 11000 20532 22967 21022 33952 20022 44927 20515
55867 22012 66831 21011 77801 17513 88794 18514 99789 16511 11751
15513
31313 09608 82152
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 0304ADON OB 05
62626 REL 2425N09136W 215234 SPG 2427N09135W 215611 WL150 20530 0
85 DLM WND 20015 007752 MBL WND 20526=

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 282301
AF307 0404A DON HDOB 08 20110728
225200 2753N 08951W 6372 03975 0173 +034 //// 100009 011 /// /// 05
225230 2752N 08953W 6484 03833 0169 +042 //// 112013 016 034 010 05
225300 2752N 08955W 6659 03625 0186 +053 //// 116014 015 036 009 01
225330 2752N 08958W 6880 03357 0183 +073 //// 124016 019 033 007 01
225400 2752N 08958W 6880 03357 0167 +093 +081 142021 022 033 004 00
225430 2752N 09002W 7345 02805 0169 +108 +094 148021 022 033 004 00
225500 2752N 09005W 7595 02522 0172 +121 +106 139020 021 033 005 00
225530 2752N 09007W 7853 02242 0172 +139 +117 136022 023 032 004 00
225600 2752N 09009W 8111 01965 0170 +156 +124 137025 026 031 005 00
225630 2752N 09011W 8365 01701 0178 +154 +136 141026 027 031 006 00
225700 2752N 09014W 8459 01593 0165 +158 +146 138024 025 034 009 03
225730 2752N 09016W 8459 01588 0156 +162 +153 135019 021 /// /// 03
225800 2750N 09016W 8426 01627 0159 +165 +142 144019 021 031 010 03
225830 2749N 09015W 8430 01621 0161 +163 +130 145023 024 031 009 00
225900 2747N 09015W 8430 01621 0157 +170 +125 146024 024 031 008 00
225930 2745N 09015W 8432 01619 0157 +168 +132 142024 025 035 008 00
230000 2744N 09015W 8428 01621 0156 +168 +125 136024 025 032 007 00
230030 2742N 09014W 8430 01619 0155 +170 +132 135022 023 031 006 00
230100 2740N 09014W 8432 01618 0151 +175 +137 142020 020 025 004 00
230130 2739N 09014W 8429 01619 0151 +174 +140 137022 023 027 003 00
$$
;

[KWT]

Might need to keep a close eye on the IR for any warm spot, given the positioning of the center is now right in the middle of the deep convective burst on the northern part of the cloud mass...maybe a little early right now, but the next 3-6hrs maybe interesting, esp if the shear stays lowish.

[tolakram]

Beautiful live loop with the sun setting. Huge burst going on.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Let's not go too crazy Don, just spread the precip out a bit.

[Ptarmigan]

Is it possible that Don makes landfall in Mexico, especially considering the center has relocated further south?

Anything is possible. If it did, we get little to no rain and we can blame that on the Cockroach Ridge.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 282304
NOAA2 0304A DON HDOB 19 20110728
225430 2239N 09132W 7511 02571 0108 +131 +050 236011 011 /// /// 03
225500 2241N 09133W 7511 02570 0103 +134 +053 243011 012 /// /// 03
225530 2242N 09135W 7511 02568 0104 +131 +077 249009 009 /// /// 03
225600 2242N 09137W 7511 02568 0100 +133 +082 253007 007 /// /// 03
225630 2241N 09139W 7512 02568 0102 +131 +084 274005 006 /// /// 03
225700 2240N 09140W 7512 02567 0102 +132 +077 270007 008 /// /// 03
225730 2238N 09140W 7512 02570 0099 +138 +055 248009 010 /// /// 03
225800 2236N 09138W 7509 02572 0102 +136 +048 248010 010 /// /// 03
225830 2236N 09136W 7512 02568 0108 +131 +048 239010 011 /// /// 03
225900 2238N 09135W 7509 02573 0106 +132 +049 235011 012 /// /// 03
225930 2240N 09134W 7512 02568 0103 +135 +050 245012 012 /// /// 03
230000 2241N 09135W 7511 02570 0104 +131 +076 249009 010 /// /// 03
230030 2243N 09137W 7513 02567 0100 +133 +083 250006 007 /// /// 03
230100 2242N 09139W 7512 02568 0102 +132 +084 262005 006 /// /// 03
230130 2241N 09141W 7511 02570 0104 +131 +074 251006 007 /// /// 03
230200 2239N 09141W 7512 02570 0101 +134 +067 264007 007 /// /// 03
230230 2237N 09141W 7511 02569 0099 +136 +070 256007 009 /// /// 03
230300 2236N 09139W 7514 02568 0101 +137 +049 243010 010 /// /// 03
230330 2236N 09137W 7510 02572 0108 +131 +048 237010 010 /// /// 03
230400 2237N 09135W 7513 02570 0108 +132 +047 221011 011 /// /// 03

[Ptarmigan]

I notice Don has some cold cloud tops of -80ºC and is getting larger.

[TexWx]

Jeez, it moved for 30 min?

I've got to work less and pay more attention to the tropics.

[HURAKAN]

loop-de-loop

[SunnyThoughts]

[lrak]

why would they loop?

[Dave]

143
URNT15 KNHC 282311
AF307 0404A DON HDOB 09 20110728
230200 2737N 09014W 8432 01616 0148 +175 +133 134024 025 027 003 00
230230 2735N 09013W 8428 01619 0147 +179 +129 136023 024 027 003 00
230300 2734N 09013W 8430 01616 0145 +180 +132 136025 025 026 003 00
230330 2732N 09013W 8429 01618 0146 +180 +132 136025 025 027 002 00
230400 2730N 09013W 8430 01616 0145 +180 +132 135024 024 026 002 00
230430 2729N 09013W 8429 01619 0146 +180 +134 136025 025 026 002 00
230500 2727N 09012W 8429 01617 0145 +180 +132 136026 027 025 003 00
230530 2725N 09012W 8432 01613 0143 +182 +130 138026 027 025 002 00
230600 2724N 09012W 8429 01616 0143 +182 +133 140024 024 026 002 00
230630 2722N 09012W 8430 01613 0144 +179 +134 140023 023 026 002 00
230700 2720N 09011W 8429 01615 0144 +180 +131 138022 023 028 002 00
230730 2719N 09011W 8430 01613 0143 +180 +132 134022 022 025 004 00
230800 2717N 09011W 8430 01613 0143 +177 +141 132021 021 026 004 00
230830 2715N 09011W 8429 01615 0145 +174 +145 139020 020 027 002 00
230900 2714N 09010W 8429 01612 0141 +178 +133 139020 021 025 003 00
230930 2712N 09010W 8429 01612 0142 +176 +140 139020 022 025 002 00
231000 2710N 09010W 8429 01613 0142 +174 +143 139023 024 023 003 00
231030 2709N 09010W 8429 01612 0141 +175 +144 141023 024 025 001 00
231100 2707N 09009W 8429 01611 0142 +172 +149 138023 023 023 002 00
231130 2705N 09009W 8429 01612 0142 +173 +148 136024 024 023 002 00
$$
;

[Dave]

NOAA2 Drop

000
UZNT13 KWBC 282307
XXAA 78228 99243 70913 08241 99006 26004 18039 00053 25605 19036
92739 22808 18032 85476 19402 17530 88999 77999
31313 09608 82151
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 0304ADON OB 06
62626 REL 2430N09130W 215126 SPG 2433N09130W 215506 WL150 18539 0
85 DLM WND 17530 005751 MBL WND 18538=

XXBB 78228 99243 70913 08241 00006 26004 11998 25605 22965 24817
33896 21808 44751 14600
21212 00006 18039 11001 19036 22994 18542 33907 18028 44836 17529
55802 15025 66775 16524 77751 15525
31313 09608 82151
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 0304ADON OB 06
62626 REL 2430N09130W 215126 SPG 2433N09130W 215506 WL150 18539 0
85 DLM WND 17530 005751 MBL WND 18538=

[RL3AO]

why would they loop?

NOAA guys do some weird stuff in the name of research. I usually ignore most of what they do.

[Dave]

NOAA2 VDM

000
URNT12 KWBC 282225
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/2153Z
B. 24 DEG 13 MIN N
91 DEG 26 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 136 DEG 36 KT
G. 046 DEG 80 NM
H. EXTRAP 1004 MB
I. 16 C/2566 M
J. 17 C/2549 M
K. 17 C/NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / NA
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA2 0304A DON OB 07 AL042011
MAX FL WINDS 36KT NE QUAD 2130Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 750MB

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 282314
NOAA2 0304A DON HDOB 20 20110728
230430 2238N 09134W 7512 02570 0107 +132 +049 226011 012 /// /// 03
230500 2240N 09134W 7512 02568 0104 +133 +054 243010 011 /// /// 03
230530 2242N 09135W 7512 02568 0104 +130 +080 247008 009 /// /// 03
230600 2243N 09137W 7511 02570 0102 +131 +084 249006 007 /// /// 03
230630 2242N 09138W 7513 02567 0103 +131 +083 255005 006 /// /// 03
230700 2240N 09139W 7510 02570 0102 +132 +072 258006 006 /// /// 03
230730 2238N 09138W 7510 02571 0102 +136 +054 243010 011 /// /// 03
230800 2238N 09136W 7511 02571 0103 +135 +051 239011 011 /// /// 03
230830 2238N 09134W 7511 02571 0107 +132 +048 227011 011 /// /// 03
230900 2240N 09133W 7510 02572 0105 +133 +050 232011 012 /// /// 03
230930 2242N 09133W 7515 02566 0105 +132 +070 241008 010 017 000 00
231000 2244N 09134W 7511 02570 0103 +131 +084 241007 008 014 000 00
231030 2246N 09135W 7512 02568 0100 +133 +086 238005 006 017 000 03
231100 2248N 09136W 7512 02566 0099 +133 +088 225005 006 017 000 00
231130 2249N 09138W 7512 02567 0100 +131 +091 227005 005 017 000 00
231200 2251N 09139W 7511 02567 0100 +130 +093 233004 005 017 000 00
231230 2253N 09139W 7511 02568 0099 +130 +095 241005 006 018 000 00
231300 2255N 09139W 7511 02564 0100 +130 +088 254009 010 019 000 00
231330 2257N 09139W 7512 02566 0096 +133 +090 245009 009 020 000 00
231400 2259N 09139W 7511 02566 0098 +130 +095 239010 011 021 000 00

[HURAKAN]