ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Dave]

Decoded NOAA2 VDM

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 22:25Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Don (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2011
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 21:53Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°13'N 91°26'W (24.2167N 91.4333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 397 miles (639 km) to the ESE (107°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 136° at 36kts (From the SE at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 80 nautical miles (92 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,566m (8,419ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,549m (8,363ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 21:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 750mb

[crimi481]

"Opinion" -related to Don -and recent "Gulf located Trop systems"
Those "bursts" you see- on N.E. quad, is what I call "transferrence" of energy - to land based thunderstorms (N. Gulf caost -then mid west)
This very strange event has occurred with almost every storm in gulf - sinse beggining last summer
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

I am beggining to believe the Gulf waters contain "other" non-naturally added ingredients/vapors- besides salt water -which have negative effect when drawn up to Trop systems highest cloud tops.
Whatever it is, Humans/ Fish/ Mammals/- and now Trop Storms, are negatively effected by this "x" factor - and would rather exit the area..."stage left"

This must be noticed by NHC - as they really seemed cautious about forecasting intensity/track in Gulf -even when all/most factors for intensification are all there! Just a "side bar" theory, for those who also notice the bizarre weather pattern changes

[Dave]

550
URNT15 KNHC 282321
AF307 0404A DON HDOB 10 20110728
231200 2704N 09009W 8430 01611 0141 +175 +144 138024 025 022 002 00
231230 2702N 09009W 8432 01610 0141 +175 +144 138025 025 024 001 00
231300 2700N 09008W 8429 01610 0141 +174 +142 137025 026 023 003 00
231330 2659N 09008W 8430 01607 0140 +170 +147 138025 025 023 002 00
231400 2657N 09008W 8432 01604 0137 +170 +148 137024 025 023 003 00
231430 2656N 09007W 8429 01607 0138 +170 +149 139024 024 022 002 00
231500 2654N 09007W 8430 01605 0136 +170 +148 138024 024 021 004 00
231530 2652N 09006W 8432 01602 0136 +170 +150 137024 025 025 001 00
231600 2651N 09006W 8429 01605 0136 +170 +149 138024 025 023 003 00
231630 2649N 09005W 8432 01604 0136 +173 +146 140023 024 024 001 00
231700 2648N 09005W 8430 01607 0137 +173 +146 140024 025 023 002 00
231730 2646N 09005W 8429 01607 0138 +174 +144 140025 026 024 002 00
231800 2644N 09004W 8429 01606 0138 +170 +146 138024 025 023 002 00
231830 2643N 09004W 8429 01607 0137 +173 +144 140025 026 022 003 00
231900 2641N 09003W 8431 01605 0137 +170 +145 139026 026 023 002 00
231930 2640N 09003W 8429 01607 0136 +173 +142 138026 026 024 001 00
232000 2638N 09002W 8429 01606 0135 +175 +142 139026 026 023 003 00
232030 2636N 09002W 8429 01608 0139 +171 +148 138026 026 025 002 00
232100 2635N 09001W 8429 01607 0140 +166 +152 136025 026 027 001 00
232130 2633N 09001W 8429 01607 0137 +173 +143 136025 025 026 001 00
$$
;

[lebron23]

24.1 or 24.2 the center is at.......sorry my friends in SE Texas...we will only receive about .5-1 inch of rain..maybe more if you get under a nice storm...

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 282324
NOAA2 0304A DON HDOB 21 20110728
231430 2301N 09139W 7511 02566 0094 +133 +111 246010 011 022 000 00
231500 2304N 09139W 7511 02565 0096 +130 +116 254013 014 022 000 00
231530 2306N 09139W 7513 02565 0096 +131 +117 233011 013 026 002 00
231600 2308N 09139W 7494 02586 0091 +133 +137 211010 014 029 010 00
231630 2310N 09139W 7512 02566 0096 +129 +125 210017 018 028 009 00
231700 2312N 09139W 7526 02549 0099 +126 +128 228021 024 035 015 00
231730 2314N 09139W 7508 02568 0092 +131 +134 250016 018 034 015 00
231800 2316N 09139W 7520 02556 //// +128 //// 260016 019 035 015 21
231830 2318N 09139W 7525 02548 0094 +128 +133 262019 019 036 014 00
231900 2320N 09138W 7519 02554 0091 +130 +133 271018 019 027 008 00
231930 2322N 09138W 7522 02549 0094 +127 +128 275015 016 026 002 00
232000 2324N 09138W 7523 02550 0095 +128 +125 277011 014 026 000 00
232030 2326N 09138W 7524 02548 0094 +128 +123 274010 011 026 001 00
232100 2328N 09138W 7526 02548 0092 +131 +124 261014 014 027 001 00
232130 2330N 09138W 7522 02549 0089 +132 +125 258015 015 026 001 00
232200 2332N 09138W 7525 02547 0085 +136 +124 252014 015 026 000 00
232230 2334N 09138W 7525 02545 0080 +140 +122 249012 013 026 002 00
232300 2337N 09138W 7521 02550 0077 +143 +125 277012 015 027 004 00
232330 2339N 09138W 7524 02546 0082 +136 +137 294010 011 026 006 00
232400 2341N 09138W 7524 02544 0080 +136 +138 282011 012 029 010 00

[HURAKAN]

AF307

[drezee]

This may be the one of those beautiful occasions that a storm is intensifying at a good clip while recon is inside...watch for temp rises in the core, quick height drops, and lightning...

[KWT]

Further south and stronger from the 18z, seems pretty reasonable based on recent trends.

[HURAKAN]

NOAA

[mf_dolphin]

Looks like they may have been fixing something looking the the prior obs.

[drezee]

Also, what was shear this AM will be an outflow channel tonight...All systems are go!

[Dave]

037
URNT15 KNHC 282331
AF307 0404A DON HDOB 11 20110728
232200 2632N 09001W 8429 01606 0136 +174 +144 138025 026 026 003 03
232230 2632N 09001W 8429 01606 0135 +171 +150 137026 026 025 002 00
232300 2628N 09001W 8411 01625 0135 +169 +163 133022 024 023 003 00
232330 2627N 09001W 8431 01599 0131 +169 +161 135024 025 021 003 03
232400 2625N 09001W 8431 01601 0135 +168 +150 140023 024 027 004 03
232430 2623N 09002W 8432 01600 0132 +171 +148 136024 025 026 005 00
232500 2622N 09003W 8425 01605 0133 +169 +152 134025 026 022 003 03
232530 2620N 09002W 8432 01600 0133 +169 +153 134026 026 024 002 00
232600 2618N 09002W 8429 01602 0131 +172 +154 137023 023 021 003 00
232630 2617N 09002W 8433 01600 0130 +176 +148 139026 027 018 004 00
232700 2615N 09002W 8429 01602 0130 +175 +146 140025 025 022 002 03
232730 2613N 09002W 8436 01596 0131 +173 +149 139025 026 019 003 03
232800 2612N 09003W 8425 01606 0131 +174 +145 137027 027 019 002 03
232830 2611N 09005W 8430 01600 0131 +171 +147 137028 028 019 003 00
232900 2609N 09006W 8429 01601 0130 +174 +144 138028 029 018 002 00
232930 2608N 09008W 8429 01600 0129 +175 +142 139029 029 022 002 00
233000 2607N 09009W 8428 01602 0129 +175 +140 138029 030 020 002 00
233030 2606N 09010W 8432 01597 0128 +175 +138 137030 031 019 003 00
233100 2604N 09012W 8432 01597 0129 +173 +140 138030 030 023 001 03
233130 2603N 09013W 8429 01600 0129 +172 +139 138030 031 021 002 00
$$
;

[KWT]

This may be the one of those beautiful occasions that a storm is intensifying at a good clip while recon is inside...watch for temp rises in the core, quick height drops, and lightning...

Yeah it sure looks like it, that drop of the LLC into the convection was utterly classic and it happened right under all of our noses!

Suddenly that H word is back on the table...

[TexWx]

The "H" word into Mexico?

[ronjon]

It's getting a black spot on the color IR. Period of rapid intensification beginning? Could we have a hurricane by morning?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn-s.html

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
700 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

...DON JOGS TEMPORARILY WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO RESUME A
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 91.8W
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------

AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. DATA FROM
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT DON HAS JOGGED WESTWARD
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE STORM SHOULD RESUME A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...TONIGHT.
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF DON SHOULD APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST ON FRIDAY...AND THEN MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES.

RAINFALL...DON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST WESTWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

NOAA

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 282334
NOAA2 0304A DON HDOB 22 20110728
232430 2343N 09138W 7525 02542 0079 +136 +140 279016 018 033 013 00
232500 2345N 09138W 7523 02545 //// +134 //// 300019 021 037 015 21
232530 2346N 09138W 7523 02541 0074 +138 +136 324018 021 040 015 00
232600 2348N 09138W 7521 02543 0074 +137 +140 296015 016 037 009 00
232630 2350N 09138W 7525 02539 0068 +141 +145 276016 017 032 004 00
232700 2352N 09138W 7520 02545 0071 +140 +144 271012 013 032 004 00
232730 2354N 09138W 7522 02541 0066 +143 +143 276015 017 031 003 00
232800 2356N 09138W 7521 02543 0064 +144 +148 281017 019 034 004 00
232830 2359N 09138W 7530 02531 0065 +143 +143 284015 017 036 008 00
232900 2401N 09137W 7525 02536 0061 +145 +143 269016 018 040 012 00
232930 2403N 09137W 7525 02535 0061 +144 +141 259015 016 040 011 00
233000 2405N 09137W 7523 02536 0059 +146 +140 246015 016 033 010 00
233030 2407N 09137W 7523 02533 0054 +150 +134 231011 013 034 009 00
233100 2409N 09137W 7525 02532 0052 +152 +126 217014 016 033 006 00
233130 2411N 09137W 7521 02535 0055 +147 +127 202019 020 036 004 03
233200 2413N 09139W 7524 02529 0056 +142 +145 203021 023 035 010 00
233230 2414N 09140W 7521 02531 //// +144 //// 227022 027 037 008 25
233300 2416N 09142W 7525 02521 0041 +148 +149 227023 025 037 004 00
233330 2417N 09142W 7515 02530 0029 +160 +123 227019 020 036 000 00
233400 2420N 09143W 7526 02512 0032 +150 +138 242023 027 044 002 00

1002.9 mb so far, but not in the center

[lebron23]

Wow nevermind the centers at 24.7

[KWT]

I still think this is more likely to go into Texas, but that center shift does re-open the possiblity of a border hit to be fair.

IR is looking mighty interesting...looks like AFM may have been right on cue with predicition of strengthening today.