ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[lebron23]

GFDL HWRF 18Z Shift a bit north

[TheEuropean]

so, can anyone now take over the NOAA obs?

[Dave]

NOAA2 DROP CORRECTED

000
UZNT13 KWBC 282307 CCA
XXAA 78228 99243 70913 08241 99006 26004 18039 00053 25605 19036
92739 22808 18032 85476 19402 17530 88999 77999
31313 09608 82151
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 0304A DON OB 06 CCA
62626 REL 2430N09130W 215126 SPG 2433N09130W 215506 WL150 18539 0
85 DLM WND 17530 005751 MBL WND 18538
XXBB 78228 99243 70913 08241 00006 26004 11998 25605 22965 24817
33896 21808 44751 14600
21212 00006 18039 11001 19036 22994 18542 33907 18028 44836 17529
55802 15025 66775 16524 77751 15525
31313 09608 82151
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 0304A DON OB 06 CCA
62626 REL 2430N09130W 215126 SPG 2433N09130W 215506 WL150 18539 0
85 DLM WND 17530 005751 MBL WND 18538

[EasyTiger]

Is it possible to use the MIMIC-TPW to follow the storm path?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html

Can't beat the timeliness. If it is an accurate indicator there seems to be a little more latitude to Don than meets the eye (no pun intended).

[Macrocane]

I can

[CypressMike]

Umm recon just measured 996 mb.... and I see a warm spot on his-res IR imagery. Beginnings of an eye maybe?

I don't think that dark spot you see is a warm spot...it's a cold spot, representing the highest cloud tops. Don isn't capable of creating an eye at this point.

[TexasF6]

Thanks wxsouth! good info...

nice....from recon discussion... pressure dropping to 996.1 mb Albeit the data is from the small noaa plane...but still, they are not rookies by any means...

The suspicion of the 996mb pressure has nothing to do with the size of the plane or expertise of the crew...it's simply that the accuracy or extrapolated pressures degrades with altitude. The higher the altitude...the less accurate the extrapolation.

[SouthDadeFish]

Umm recon just measured 996 mb.... and I see a warm spot on his-res IR imagery. Beginnings of an eye maybe?

I don't think that dark spot you see is a warm spot...it's a cold spot, representing the highest cloud tops. Don isn't capable of creating an eye at this point.

I'm using Weathertap IR imagery and it's definitely a warm spot. Not saying its necessarily an eye.

[theweatherwatch]

Umm recon just measured 996 mb.... and I see a warm spot on his-res IR imagery. Beginnings of an eye maybe?

I don't think that dark spot you see is a warm spot...it's a cold spot, representing the highest cloud tops. Don isn't capable of creating an eye at this point.

If Don is under going RI like the possible 996mb Pressure indicates then yes Don would be capable of Developing an eye... We will have to wait and see what the Airforce Recon Plane finds.

[Dave]

458
URNT15 KNHC 290001
AF307 0404A DON HDOB 14 20110728
235200 2513N 09109W 8429 01574 0095 +180 +147 127030 031 031 001 00
235230 2511N 09111W 8428 01574 0094 +181 +147 130031 032 030 001 00
235300 2510N 09112W 8432 01570 0093 +183 +147 133033 033 029 003 00
235330 2509N 09114W 8430 01573 0094 +180 +153 132032 032 031 001 00
235400 2508N 09115W 8426 01575 0092 +180 +153 130032 033 031 002 00
235430 2506N 09116W 8432 01569 0092 +180 +155 134033 033 030 003 00
235500 2505N 09118W 8432 01569 0091 +178 +160 135033 033 031 002 00
235530 2504N 09119W 8428 01572 0090 +179 +162 133032 033 031 003 00
235600 2503N 09120W 8432 01566 0088 +178 +164 133033 033 032 002 00
235630 2501N 09122W 8429 01568 0086 +182 +161 132034 035 032 001 00
235700 2500N 09123W 8429 01566 0081 +187 +158 132035 036 031 002 00
235730 2459N 09125W 8430 01564 0077 +192 +150 131039 041 032 003 00
235800 2458N 09126W 8430 01562 0072 +197 +151 130040 040 032 002 00
235830 2456N 09127W 8434 01559 0072 +197 +153 131036 038 032 002 00
235900 2455N 09129W 8428 01558 0068 +193 +155 133034 035 031 003 00
235930 2454N 09130W 8430 01555 0067 +192 +161 135033 034 031 003 00
000000 2453N 09131W 8429 01557 0069 +190 +158 133033 033 032 004 00
000030 2451N 09132W 8432 01553 0066 +190 +170 133031 031 034 003 00
000100 2450N 09133W 8429 01555 0063 +193 +174 131029 030 033 003 00
000130 2448N 09134W 8429 01553 0063 +188 +178 131029 030 034 002 00
$$
;

[South Texas Storms]

I think a Hurricane Watch will be issued at the 10pm advisory.

[HURAKAN]

NOAA

[ozonepete]

I think a Hurricane Watch will be issued at the 10pm advisory.

That would be very prudent given what's going on right now...

[SouthDadeFish]

I have a hard time seeing that the pressure dropped 8 millibars in an hour, but maybe 1000 is more reasonable. Still a big drop. It's possible with the extremely deep convection we've been seeing.

[TwisterFanatic]

I think a Hurricane Watch will be issued at the 10pm advisory.

Possibly, if this trend continues... I see no reason why it shouldn't.

[Dave]

so, can anyone now take over the NOAA obs?

Thanks European for the help today! Much appreciated.

[mf_dolphin]

nice....from recon... pressure dropping to 996.1 mb Albeit the data is from the small noaa plane...but still, they are not rookies by any means...

And for the record, the NOAA plane is a P3 Orion. Not exactly a small plane.

[Dave]

NOAA2 DROP

000
UZNT13 KWBC 282258 CCA
XXAA 78228 99243 70914 08241 99007 26200 20526 00065 25200 20532
92751 22801 20515 85488 19403 21513 88999 77999
31313 09608 82152
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 0304A DON OB 05 CCA
62626 REL 2425N09136W 215234 SPG 2427N09135W 215611 WL150 20530 0
85 DLM WND 20015 007752 MBL WND 20526
XXBB 78228 99243 70914 08241 00007 26200 11999 25200 22784 16805
33751 14200
21212 00007 20526 11000 20532 22967 21022 33952 20022 44927 20515
55867 22012 66831 21011 77801 17513 88794 18514 99789 16511 11751
15513
31313 09608 82152
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 0304A DON OB 05 CCA
62626 REL 2425N09136W 215234 SPG 2427N09135W 215611 WL150 20530 0
85 DLM WND 20015 007752 MBL WND 20526

Yes OB 5 came in after 6.

[HURAKAN]

AF307

[TheEuropean]

so, can anyone now take over the NOAA obs?

Thanks European for the help today! Much appreciated.

No problem, but it's late (or early) here in europe...