ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Well statistics show NE FL/GA hits from the SE are VERY rare, so IMO it will be landfall S of Vero Beach or E of Charleston SC, missing CONUS not looking likely. When does the NHC sample the upper air ahead of Irene? That will tell the story IMO.

[northtxboy]

I knew I shouldnt have gone to bed!!! I think I am going to get these haul trucks of mine ready to go to the east coast this weekend.

[Blown Away]

06z TAFB says strike on SFL.

[pcolaman]

Laters vis http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

[tolakram]

Just a reminder that if you post an image, especially a time sensitive image, please upload it before posting it. Refresh yourself with this thread....

Reminder About Posting Images

Thanks and now back to watching Irene!

Unfortunately there is no service to use that will accept the MIMIC-TPW images, too large If someone has found one please let me know.

Here's hoping cycloneye has ridden out Irene ok, what a beast.

[ColinDelia]

Unfortunately there is no service to use that will accept the MIMIC-TPW images, too large If someone has found one please let me know.

you can download a free image editor like "irfanview" that allows you to reduce the image quality or size.

[Nightwatch]

Hopefully it wont make landfall as a major hurricane at the eastcoast.
Category 2 so far?

When was the last Cat.2 landfall for the eastcoast?

[meteorologyman]

Now My eyes might be deceiving but it looks like just as center of circulation went north of PR it made a due west movement (9:15UTC - 10:15 UTC) time

[Blown Away]

Wow, this is a scary setup with regards to intensity for the SE CONUS.

[JTE50]

a little easier radar site to track Irene: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=out&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=SJU&type=TZL&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels

[tolakram]

live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

visible frame

[cpdaman]

Well statistics show NE FL/GA hits from the SE are VERY rare, so IMO it will be landfall S of Vero Beach or E of Charleston SC, missing CONUS not looking likely. When does the NHC sample the upper air ahead of Irene? That will tell the story IMO.

Bump also the inflow and outflow can b tremendously interupted just by skirting OFF parrallel the D.R coast... so irene could still weaken badly ronite

[northjaxpro]

Well statistics show NE FL/GA hits from the SE are VERY rare, so IMO it will be landfall S of Vero Beach or E of Charleston SC, missing CONUS not looking likely. When does the NHC sampled the upper air ahead of Irene? That will tell the story IMO.

Blown Away, it is always said that where I live here in NE FL we are blessed to have that unique curvature geographically of the coastline. Due to the angle of approach history has shown that tropical cyclones have it very hard to make landfall from the east or southeast here in NE FL/SE GA area. Systems most times on its approach here usually travel up the Gulf Stream and misses us to the north often hitting the Carolinas or south of us farther down the peninsula. Only Hurricane Dora in 1964 is the only documented storm to make a direct landfall from the east here in the NE FL area.

I tell you what, this theory will be put to the test later this week, no question about it. Irene is going to get really close to this area. I have always wondered when the day would come when this curvature of the coast theory of protection will run out after 47 years. We will find out very soon in a few days as Irene will be approaching from the southeast. For this area, I hope our luck here continues in this manner for sure.

[cpdaman]

Will irene relocate further north today...toward deep convection

[ObsessedMiami]

Okay, bear with me here for a second. I know that you never concentrate on the centerline of the cone but using the cones center as a reference it appears that Irene would be headed directly for SFL then have to turn NNW to run parallel to the FL coast. What is going to cause that turn? Are we down for another nailbiting turn-watching scenario?

Thanks to all for their great discussion here. Plan for the worst and pray for the best.

[meteorologyman]

She is looking great in satellite image, she is growing in size. People in this path needs to start looking over their hurricane preperation plans and supplies now.

[tolakram]

Radar loop (hi def radar long range since main radar is without power)

[BigA]

Will irene relocate further north today...toward deep convection

No, a mature hurricane like Irene won't relocate it's center. That's almost always a trait of developing or disorganized tropical storms.

[HURAKAN]

050
URNT15 KNHC 221120
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 06 20110822
111030 1859N 06507W 6966 03167 0078 +085 +046 157049 049 037 002 03
111100 1901N 06508W 6967 03167 0080 +084 +047 155048 048 037 002 03
111130 1903N 06509W 6969 03163 0081 +078 +054 155048 049 034 007 03
111200 1905N 06509W 6993 03134 //// +056 //// 156043 045 038 013 05
111230 1908N 06510W 6968 03162 //// +051 //// 154044 044 037 012 05
111300 1910N 06510W 6963 03167 0086 +067 //// 153045 046 038 007 05
111330 1912N 06511W 6968 03159 0078 +074 //// 152047 050 042 006 05
111400 1914N 06511W 6966 03161 //// +069 //// 151051 053 043 008 05
111430 1916N 06512W 6970 03157 0077 +077 //// 151048 049 041 006 01
111500 1918N 06513W 6967 03158 0080 +075 //// 153048 049 042 004 01
111530 1920N 06513W 6966 03163 0082 +075 +073 153049 050 039 004 00
111600 1922N 06514W 6967 03162 0085 +075 +072 150048 049 040 004 00
111630 1924N 06514W 6969 03161 0090 +071 //// 145048 048 040 004 01
111700 1926N 06515W 6967 03162 0089 +071 //// 143042 045 038 005 01
111730 1928N 06515W 6963 03167 0098 +060 //// 140041 043 039 003 01
111800 1930N 06516W 6963 03169 0086 +074 +068 146044 045 039 004 00
111830 1933N 06516W 6969 03164 0090 +075 +057 144044 044 037 005 00
111900 1935N 06517W 6968 03166 0090 +075 +068 140043 044 038 003 00
111930 1937N 06517W 6967 03167 0086 +077 +075 139041 042 039 002 00
112000 1939N 06518W 6969 03166 0086 +077 +075 140041 042 039 001 00
$$
;

Just to let you know that RECON is flying, can't post right now.

[BigA]

Radar loop (hi def radar long range since main radar is without power)

]

Awesome loop tolkaram. Shows the increase in organization and that WNW (not W or NW right now) is definitely the order of the hour.