WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

[dexterlabio]

TPPN11 PGTW 310625

A. TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA)

B. 31/0530Z

C. 17.1N

D. 132.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/6.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: W1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST
12HRS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE EYE HAS COOLED WHILE THE CONVECTIVE BANDING
HAS WARMED. THE RING SURROUNDING THE EYE IS NOW LG WITH AN EYE
NUMBER OF 5.0. WITH A LG EYE, THE EYE ADJUSTMENT IS -0.5.
HOWEVER, A BANDING FEATURE OF +0.5 REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE STORM, YIELDING A DT OF 5.0. MET IS A 4.5, WHILE
PT IS 5.5. FT IS BASED ON THE PT, WITH RAPID WEAKENING
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BREAK IN CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
31/0450Z 17.0N 132.8E MMHS


HOUGH

Latest satfix from JTWC

[HurricaneBill]

Another storm that maintained its eye until landfall was Super Typhoon Zeb in 1998.

[madness]

This is my first post on Storm2K; so I guess welcome to me. I have been lurking as a guest since Super Typhoon Megi (2010).

Severe Typhoon Muifa has my undivided attention. This is a serious threat to the eastern Chinese coastline and I have already been on the phone to a friend in Shanghai and sent messages to friends in Hangzhou.

ECMWF appears to be favouring a more northerly track and pushing the system right up the Chinese coastline towards Qingdao.

But, first up will be Okinawa, Japan. This one is nasty and is capable of causing severe damage. Early preparation is crucial.
I hope that this was clearly demonstrated during the Australian summer when Cyclone Yasi paid us a visit.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Remember this is still around 4 days from Okinawa and may well miss the island completely - there's a large cone of uncertainty there for a reason. We'll only have a rough idea of how hard somewhere is going to get hit about 24hrs in advance, so there's still a little way to go! Indeed JMA latest track take Muifa south of Okinawa with the real destructive core winds staying offshore. As always hope for the best and prepare for the worst!

I know ECMWF is behind the curve along with all the other models but the latest run supports further intensification and a great environment all the way up until a landfall on eastern China.

My guess is upwelling of cooler water has causes Muifa problems but once it moves off it'll get cranking again!

[KWT]

Looks like Mufia has weakened, I though it probably would when I saw the northern quadrant start to get something of a squashed look on IR...

Still probably a very powerful system that is going to need to be watched like a hawk.

[Chacor]

JTWC no longer forecasting restrengthening, currently 125 kt.

Still forecast to pass very close to Okinawa as a cat 3.

Latest discussion:
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 133.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A 5NM PIN HOLE EYE WITH LARGE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. HOWEVER, WEAKENING IS EVIDENT IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWS EROSION OF THE EYEWALL ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE
ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF TY 11W. ADDITIONALLY, A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL CURRENTLY PROVIDING AN OUTFLOW
CHANNEL TO THE NORTHWEST IS MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN
FAVORABLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON THE PGTW AND RJTD
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115 TO 130 KNOTS. TY
11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
A RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
CHINA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD WITHIN THIS WEAKNESS
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BY TAU 48, A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS
FORECAST TO BUILD IN, ALLOWING TY 11W TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
OKINAWA, JAPAN. TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY DUE TO THE
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW BALANCED BY THE PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS FARTHER NORTHWARD BECAUSE
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DROP OFF AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY BE
CUT OFF AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS IN. THIS FORECAST IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT ARE TIGHTLY PACKED INCLUDING
NOGAPS, JGSM, ECMWF, AND WBAR. GFS AND GFDN ARE THE EASTERN OUTLIERS
WHILE EGRR IS THE WESTERN OUTLIER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 310600Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z
AND 010900Z.

[Chacor]

ADT continues to sink like a rock, almost as fast as it went up yesterday.

[KWT]

Yep and that makes sense as the presentation really is starting to struggle, northern quadrant has imploded in the last 6-12hrs.

[somethingfunny]

Glad to see some old adages apply to every basin in the world. Anything that can spin up that quickly can spin down just as quickly. Granted, this won't. It'll expand and restrengthen to a more stable state, like what Wilma did. My amateur opinion, of course.

[phwxenthusiast]

i don't know about you guys but the recent image shows some improvement--the eye is back!!

[senorpepr]

WTPQ21 RJTD 310900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310900UTC 17.5N 133.2E GOOD
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 010900UTC 19.6N 133.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 020600UTC 21.9N 132.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 030600UTC 23.5N 130.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[Typhoon Hunter]

Still a really big model spread amongst the 00z runs ranging from:

UKMET into Taiwan (this model seems to be overdoing strength of ridge this year) - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/11073100/4.html

GFS into S Korea - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/11073100/3.html

CMC stall out over Okinawa (now that would be interesting!) - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/11073100/13.html

And NOGAPS a little south of what ECMWF shows, south of Okinawa - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp/fcst/archive/11073100/3.html

Still plenty of uncertainty ahead!

[StormingB81]

Starting to shape up again looking good..could try making a run at it again

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 311200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311200UTC 17.7N 133.5E GOOD
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 011200UTC 20.0N 133.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 021200UTC 22.4N 132.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 031200UTC 23.9N 129.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[oaba09]

moving mostly northwards

[Battlebrick]

microwave image? it would tell if it's going through a EWRC.

[phwxenthusiast]

here's the recent one i could find

[dexterlabio]

Latest from JTWC

WTPN32 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 17.7N 133.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 133.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.8N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.0N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 21.2N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.4N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.5N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 25.7N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 26.9N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 133.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 45
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

[StormingB81]

JMA has gone south lot..