ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[micktooth]

Don't know if anyone has mentioned it yet, but now there is a floater assigned to 93L

[HurricaneBelle]

I sure don't like the GFS showing a 10-15 inch rain event along the West coast of Florida.

[BigB0882]

Could someone explain what a floater is? I have seen it mentioned but never knew what it meant.

[mf_dolphin]

with the higher 60% chance...do the models make the system more predictable?...are the models in better aggreement?

Won't make any difference. Once we have a definite closed circulation then the models can be initialized better and we should have better output.

[bamajammer4eva]

Could someone explain what a floater is? I have seen it mentioned but never knew what it meant.

Floater is when the zoom the satellite into an area of interest

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

[mf_dolphin]

Could someone explain what a floater is? I have seen it mentioned but never knew what it meant.

A floater is just the satellite sensors focused on a specific area. They are used to concentrate on a developing or existing system.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Already showing up to 10 inches across deep south LA including New Orleans. About 5-6 in my area. Only should go up as the system organizes more.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=lix&gc=2

I wonder if they are hugging the GFS at all? If this ends up further west (which is my guess) then it could actually be more rain than that for us. I think we are in for a wet wet time.

Probably so. Seems from previous storms winter or tropical that is their model of choice. I'm thinking the same as you Big B. think this is just the preliminary round and we should only see them go up from here once this becomes a named system and the models get a better hold of it. Don't want to get to agrresive yet and start freaking people out with memories of Allison. Don't know if you were around here then but we got upwards of 20in of rain from that. Had major river flooding around here on the amite and surrounding rivers.

[Radiogirltx]

Well, let's not get TOO excited in Texas...
After all, Texas *did* swallow an entire tropical storm!!
RIP, Danny. RIP.

Oh man, perfect visual description of what happened with that system. Lol!

[micktooth]

Already showing up to 10 inches across deep south LA including New Orleans. About 5-6 in my area. Only should go up as the system organizes more.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=lix&gc=2

I wonder if they are hugging the GFS at all? If this ends up further west (which is my guess) then it could actually be more rain than that for us. I think we are in for a wet wet time.

Probably so. Seems from previous storms winter or tropical that is their model of choice. I'm thinking the same as you Big B. think this is just the preliminary round and we should only see them go up from here once this becomes a named system and the models get a better hold of it. Don't want to get to agrresive yet and start freaking people out with memories of Allison. Don't know if you were around here then but we got upwards of 20in of rain from that. Had major river flooding around here on the amite and surrounding rivers.

I remember her well, our house was just inches away from flooding big time. Our entire neighborhood outside of NOLA was under water!

[surfer_dude]

I'll put it this way...

My sprinkler(s) are on standby.

I think it just "formed" a touch too much to east.

The picture on the NHC website is a little misleading. Ascat satellites show low level circulation developing in the next 24 hours just north of the yucatan peninsula.

[Stormcenter]

Exactly and it really doesn't look like it's doing much tonight.

Also, I'm not buying the 3-4 stall at all on this one either. JMHO

models have this thing all over. And I am afraid they are under-estimating its intensity. We could easily have a Category 3 on our hands before Sunday. Conditions are great for development and the dry air to the north has lifted out.

huh? we dont have a center yet and you are talking Cat 3..really? slightly premature....

[DeanDaDream]

Yikes...what a mess!

http://screencast.com/t/7FUppHxJfUd

[northjaxpro]

Disappearance of a system on the map means one of three things:
1. Tropical Depression formed (they are probably going to wait for recon to upgrade)
2. Relocation
3. Glitch

I think in this particular instance, a glitch caused that to happen. It should be back on the map shortly.

[Stormcenter]

We do?

models have this thing all over. And I am afraid they are under-estimating its intensity. We could easily have a Category 3 on our hands before Sunday. Conditions are great for development and the dry air to the north has lifted out.

huh? we dont have a center yet and you are talking Cat 3..really? slightly premature....

We have model consensus and a wonderful environment. That enough

[ConvergenceZone]

I have a hard time figuring out on this loop where I suppose to be looking at

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

I don't see any concentrated convection sustaining itself, just numerous areas of pulsing up and down convection.

[BigB0882]

I was still in Beaumont for Allison but I heard stories from many people after I moved here. They all remember it well and when I first heard of this stalling out it was Allison that I first thought of!

[CrazyC83]

What were the antedecent conditions before Allison - wetter or drier than normal?

[Stormcenter]

It looks bad right now so I wouldn't think it's an upgrade.

Surely it should be an upgrade, unless the shear is tearing it apart.

[Radiogirltx]

North Gulf Coast has to include Northwest Gulf Coast (Upper TX coast) also, right? Not sure from the wording.

Ive had a similar question. Is there a map/graphic that shows which areas are considered west gulf, north gulf, east gulf? For Instance, is Beaumont north or west gulf. Is the panhandle of FL north gulf of east gulf?

[Portastorm]

It's not going to be an upgrade. Strongest vorticity showing up at the 850mb level but we have a ways to go further up (500 mb) the column.

Not to mention 40 knots of westerly shear.