ATL: IRENE - Models

[chris_fit]

HWRF starts in about 8 minutes right?

[bella_may]

Does the euro run again soon?

2 AM eastern it begins to run.

OK thanks!

[Mouton]

GFS shifts westfrom the 18z run....IMO, Follks in SFL and for that matter the entire peninsula had better begin preliminary hurricane preparations....

Preliminary should be done already, I am steping mine up which means making an evac res; getting the shutters nearer to where they go up on wednesday and filling up all my spare gas cans.

Seriously, anyone on the east coast say from Miami North to the Fla Ga border needs to be set to go to final preparations now, at least make sure everything fits as it should and have the vehicles gassed up and your important documents ready to go.

[SFLcane]

GFS shifts westfrom the 18z run....IMO, Follks in SFL and for that matter the entire peninsula had better begin preliminary hurricane preparations....

If it manages to stay offshore down there (watch out) could be a signficant hurricane approaching sfl. NEED G IV !!

[blp]

Does the euro run again soon?

I think around 3:00 am.

The run finishes at 3:00am but you can start getting the 3 to 5 day runs by 2:30am.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS suggesting more of a threat to south Florida than the previous run. Not liking that trend at all...

I think the track is exactly like the 12z Euro.

I would say that is way too close for comfort

Actually I think the GFS shifted a hair west of the 12z Euro...But hey, what's a couple of miles among friends when you're dealing with a hurricane.

SFT

[bella_may]

Thanks guys!

[SeminoleWind]

here is the crazy scary part barley moves much out to 138 hours

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal138.gif

[BigB0882]

What if this stalls off shore and bombs big time?

[fci]

H+102 near landfall west palm Beach.....almost spot on to the 11pm NHC positioning



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal102.gif

11 PM had it 30 miles off the coast
5 PM had it hitting WPB area.

[calmbeforestorm1]

Can you imagine this scenario actually playing out. A large, maybe major cane moving along the east coast of florida up to SC along the coastline all the way? It would be a major U.S. catastrophe. The only saving grace might be that the strongest quadrant would be offshore.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

We still talkng a cat 1 at it's closet point to Miami?

[TheDreamTraveler]

here is the crazy scary part barley moves much out to 138 hours

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal138.gif

People in Georgia and South Carolina would be taking the brunt of the storm and not Florida. I was surprised the model runs stopped getting posted just because we saw that it hit Florida and that was it. This storm isn't just about Florida. So people in the Southeast need to pay very close attention to this.

[PTPatrick]

First "real" landfall looks like St aug to J-ville. Takes forever to get to savannah...that is a historically hard area to direct hit with a well organized storm... But high building in after recurve through Bahamas is the recipe.

[blp]

We still talkng a cat 1 at it's closet point to Miami?

Yes, still a CAT 1 at landfall according to NHC.


96H 26/0000Z 26.5N 79.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 30.0N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND


I think the intensity estimate form the NHC might be a bit conservative considering the that it might skirt Hispaniola now and be over warm water longer.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

We still talkng a cat 1 at it's closet point to Miami?

Yes, still a CAT 1 at landfall according to NHC.


96H 26/0000Z 26.5N 79.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 30.0N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND


I think the intensity estimate form the NHC might be a bit conservative considering the that it might skirt Hispaniola now and be over warm water longer.

Thanks ,
going to crash see you tomorrow. Let me know what the EURO shows

[SouthFLTropics]

here is the crazy scary part barley moves much out to 138 hours

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal138.gif

People in Georgia and South Carolina would be taking the brunt of the storm and not Florida. I was surprised the model runs stopped getting posted just because we saw that it hit Florida and that was it. This storm isn't just about Florida. So people in the Southeast need to pay very close attention to this.

I would agree with you on this but I would also point out that you generally will see much more Texas and Florida members on here versus Georgia and South Carolina members. I think your point about them being under the gun as well is very valid but the bulk of people on right now are from Florida so that is obviously the concern that is going to be voiced and shown. If anyone is from Georgia or SC please make yourself known and jump in the conversation. This is definitely about you as well. This is a Southeast US regional threat.

SFT

[SeminoleWind]

up into carolinas it looks like

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal156.gif

[CrazyC83]

How far north will Irene get before it finally does recurve around the high? Or is it straight north to dissipation? Stalling out?

[blp]

Got to give the NHC credit for only slightly shifting there cone and staying left of the majority. They had a feeling we might see a shift back West. Now they are very close again to the GFS.