ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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Blown Away
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#3061 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:59 pm

OuterBanker wrote:T 2.5? Is that not a TS?


1. ATLANTIC and NORTHEAST PACIFIC Basins - TPC/NHC (also CPHC)
MSW Averaging Period: 1 minute

Tropical Cyclone - generic term for systems of all intensities
Tropical Disturbance - distinct area of disturbed weather but
usually with no well-defined low-level circulation apparent/
regular advisories not issued/ usually corresponds to Dvorak
ratings less than T2.0
Tropical Depression - fairly well-defined low-level circulation/
MSW less than 34 kts/ Dvorak rating usually T2.0
Tropical Storm - MSW in range of 34-63 kts/ Dvorak rating T2.5,
T3.0, or T3.5
Hurricane - MSW exceeding 63 kts/ Dvorak rating T4.0 or higher

The point at which regular advisories are initiated is a little
subjective. A system with a Dvorak rating of T1.5 might be upgraded
to a tropical depression if it were in a position to affect a populated
area and/or if it seemed to be rapidly intensifying and its development
potential was considered excellent.


I thought so?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3062 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:59 pm

cycloneye wrote:18z Best Track

Aric,there is your low. :)

AL, 91, 2011080118, , BEST, 0, 153N, 605W, 30, 1008, LO



about time.. lol

now lets wait for renumber in an hour after recon passes through it.. soon..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3063 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:59 pm

canes04 wrote:All I can say is Aric your the man. That mid level fooled me for 3 days, I was thinking it would work itself down.
Way to stick to your guns.


As I said its not all that common for MLC to work down to the surface in the deep tropics, usually happens from the bottom up, subtropics seem to work almost the opposite way round!

OuterBanker, yep 2.5 would normally be enough, but since we have recon in there no point in using it as a guide.
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#3064 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:00 pm

Observation 17


000
URNT15 KNHC 011856
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 17 20110801
184600 1443N 05938W 9766 00279 0082 +235 +174 100022 022 029 003 00
184630 1444N 05939W 9760 00284 0082 +231 +179 101020 022 028 002 00
184700 1445N 05941W 9751 00291 0082 +216 +184 103024 025 028 003 00
184730 1446N 05943W 9763 00279 0082 +223 +184 108022 024 027 003 00
184800 1447N 05944W 9761 00281 0080 +244 +185 118015 017 017 002 00
184830 1448N 05946W 9760 00282 0079 +245 +187 126014 014 011 002 00
184900 1449N 05947W 9758 00283 0078 +245 +191 126014 015 010 001 00
184930 1449N 05948W 9761 00281 0078 +245 +195 127015 015 013 001 00
185000 1450N 05950W 9761 00281 0078 +241 +199 122015 015 008 002 00
185030 1451N 05951W 9758 00283 0077 +240 +202 122015 015 011 001 00
185100 1452N 05953W 9760 00280 0077 +240 +205 122015 015 013 000 00
185130 1453N 05954W 9760 00280 0076 +240 +207 127016 017 013 000 00
185200 1454N 05956W 9761 00277 0076 +240 +209 131016 017 012 002 00
185230 1455N 05957W 9758 00281 0076 +242 +211 129017 018 011 001 00
185300 1455N 05959W 9761 00279 0076 +241 +212 128016 017 012 001 00
185330 1456N 06000W 9758 00281 0076 +240 +213 123016 017 015 000 00
185400 1457N 06002W 9761 00279 0075 +242 +214 125018 018 015 001 00
185430 1458N 06003W 9761 00278 0075 +244 +214 128018 018 018 001 00
185500 1459N 06005W 9762 00278 0075 +240 +215 130017 018 013 002 00
185530 1500N 06006W 9757 00282 0075 +240 +215 124018 019 015 001 00
$$
;
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#3065 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:00 pm

Down to 1007.5mb, still ESE winds.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3066 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:00 pm

KWT wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:You can now clearly see the LLC

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html


Yep its quite obvious, the low level flow is still abit too fast, gotta wonder if its ever going to really slow down enough for significant development before it crashes into Hispaniola...

MLC still blowing up convection on the side thats closest to the LLC, thats at least a decent sign...

I see that, it looks as though energy from the mlc is moving into the llc. The deep convection near the center of the mlc earlier has faded out as new convection has really been building on the eastern side of the llc further west. As disorganized as this thing looks right now, it is in fact an improvement from yesterday considering how much better defined the llc is today. I was actually starting to doubt development earlier today, but Im starting to feel more confident again that once the storm starts to slow down, we might actually see this thing make a real run towards development.
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#3067 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:01 pm

Almost there.... pressure 1007.5 mb.. not quite there yet though

85530 1500N 06006W 9757 00282 0075 +240 +215 124018 019 015 001 00
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3068 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:18z Best Track

Aric,there is your low. :)

AL, 91, 2011080118, , BEST, 0, 153N, 605W, 30, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest


Very interesting!

What should be noted is the convection thats developing from the MLC at the moment is much closer to the LLC then it has been recently, i think we are seeing the transference phase.
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#3069 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:01 pm

Aric, you called this one. Just a fantastic call.
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#3070 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:03 pm

next set should tell us the moment of truth right now the SE winds are good.. should see a quick wind shift within the first few obs on the next set..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3071 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:03 pm

We still need to see if this LLC persists...I'm not biting yet
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3072 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:04 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
cycloneye wrote:18z Best Track

Aric,there is your low. :)

AL, 91, 2011080118, , BEST, 0, 153N, 605W, 30, 1008, LO



about time.. lol

now lets wait for renumber in an hour after recon passes through it.. soon..


Do you think the NHC would upgrade with the LLC out running the convection?
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#3073 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:04 pm

Someone do some google images.. :) please
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#3074 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:04 pm

Invest 91L reorganizing
Posted by: JeffMasters, 16:16 GMT le 01 août 2011

Invest 91L, which is located near 14°N, 57°W, is showing signs of reorganization after a pretty rough weekend. On Saturday, the wave looked ripe to develop with organized convection and the hint of a surface circulation. On Sunday a Hurricane Hunter and NOAA G9 flew into the system only to find it disorganized and negatively influenced by the burst of convection that sprouted on its western edge. Since then, low-level circulation has at least strengthened, if not consolidated, and residents of the Lesser Antilles should be prepared for tropical storm advisories to be posted on short notice. Satellite loops show decent thunderstorm activity and some mid-level circulation, and continued bursts of thunderstorms to the southwest of the invest region. The wave is surrounded by moderately strong wind shear (30-40 knots) on both the north and the south sides, which could delay development. Also, a large mass of dry, Saharan air continues to linger to 91L's north. In a mission this morning, Hurricane Hunters found winds close to tropical storm strength, but no signs of a closed surface circulation—just plenty of winds from the east or southeast. The next mission is scheduled for 2pm EDT, and they will continue every six hours if the system remains a threat.

Forecast For 91L
Development will probably occur in the next day or two, and the National Hurricane Center is giving the wave a 90% chance in the next 48 hours. The question now is where will it go, and how long will it remain a tropical cyclone. Models are split today, although still leaning toward an Atlantic recurving solution. In the camp of a Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC and the UKMET models. The GFS and the ECMWF are still in favor of the system tracking northwest toward Florida (and coming close) before taking a turn to the northeast. The NOGAPS model is resolving a Florida landfall in this morning's run, and the HWRF hints that it might like that solution, as well, at the end of its run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. However, it is extremely difficult to nail down a track before a cyclone has even developed. Something we know for sure is that 91L is a threat to the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean islands including Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas.

In terms of intensity, both the GFDL and the HWRF are thinking this will eventually get to hurricane strength once it develops, although neither are forecasting it to become stronger than a category 1. SHIPS (which tracks 91L into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico) brings the system up to a category 1 hurricane, and the LGEM does as well, but is slower in its intensification. General consensus this morning is that 91L will max out somewhere between a moderate tropical cyclone and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Again, this is something that is difficult to predict before development itself occurs.
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Re:

#3075 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:06 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Someone do some google images.. :) please


You've asked several times. Perhaps you should... :wink:
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#3076 Postby jonj2040 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:06 pm

Hi everyone I'm not new to this great forum but don't post much, however i was just noticing that the GFDL model up to 60 hr for 91l was similar the the path that Jeanne of 04 took of to whern it left Hispaniola, I was just wondering if the setup was similar.
here is the model i was referring to
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
here is Jeanne's path
Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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#3077 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:07 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3078 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:07 pm

Ivanhater wrote:We still need to see if this LLC persists...I'm not biting yet


I'm with Ivan...We've been fooled too many times. As GW said, "Fool me once shame on you...Fool me twice, well we won't get fooled again"...LOL
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#3079 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:08 pm

Straight SW winds now in Barbados.

Current Weather Conditions:
Grantley Adams, Barbados
(TBPB) 13-04N 059-29W 56M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Aug 01, 2011 - 03:00 PM EDTAug 01, 2011 - 02:00 PM CDTAug 01, 2011 - 01:00 PM MDTAug 01, 2011 - 12:00 PM PDTAug 01, 2011 - 11:00 AM ADTAug 01, 2011 - 09:00 AM HST
2011.08.01 1900 UTC
Wind from the SW (230 degrees) at 8 MPH (7 KT)
Visibility 3 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 82 F (28 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 83%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.80 in. Hg (1009 hPa)
ob TBPB 011900Z 23007KT 6000 -RA SCT012CB BKN014 28/25 Q1009 NOSIG

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Re: Re:

#3080 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:09 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Someone do some google images.. :) please


You've asked several times. Perhaps you should... :wink:


I dont have google earth. and cant put it on this computer or i would :) sorry :(
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