ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

small little eye cleared out briefly on hi res sat..

[Frank2]

The WV loop shows a stronger second trough dropping SE towards the SE US coast - good news for those of us hoping and praying for a recurve:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

P.S. Hopefully the satellite blackout is for just one image...

[MBryant]

Thank you for the discussion about the effect of geographic factors on tropical systems. It is an area of particular interest to me, but I'm having difficulty locating information. I'd love to get away from speculation on the subject (where I'm at) to a more studied approach.

[Dave]

I have to leave for awhile...no choice. Someone please pickup the hdobs. Thanks!

[Aric Dunn]

also its likely to stregthen pretty quick as the southern inflow passes the mona passage. the low level forcing will increase.

[deltadog03]

The WV loop shows a stronger second trough dropping SE towards the SE US coast - good news for those of us hoping and praying for a recurve:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

P.S. Hopefully the satellite blackout is for just one image...

We shall see about the trof....it is August...

[AdamFirst]

BAM suites now magically making the ridge disappear...they're far east and avoid all of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.

[RL3AO]

I've got em

[Aric Dunn]

need upper air data. hopefully the flight goes out sometime soon.

[RL3AO]

041
URNT15 KNHC 221300
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 16 20110822
125030 1849N 06812W 6970 03145 0054 +085 +066 015030 030 033 002 00
125100 1847N 06812W 6967 03147 0056 +084 +063 011031 031 029 000 00
125130 1845N 06812W 6969 03147 0058 +083 +060 007031 032 029 000 00
125200 1843N 06811W 6966 03151 0054 +089 +055 001030 032 031 000 00
125230 1841N 06811W 6969 03148 0057 +087 +053 358030 031 031 001 00
125300 1839N 06811W 6966 03151 0057 +085 +069 358029 030 031 000 00
125330 1837N 06810W 6967 03153 0059 +085 +061 353030 031 030 001 00
125400 1835N 06810W 6966 03153 0056 +089 +055 354032 032 029 000 03
125430 1833N 06811W 6967 03150 0059 +085 +060 355033 033 028 000 03
125500 1831N 06812W 6967 03151 0061 +085 +060 354032 032 031 001 03
125530 1829N 06813W 6967 03154 0064 +085 +060 358030 031 028 001 00
125600 1827N 06814W 6967 03154 0063 +087 +059 357030 032 029 000 00
125630 1826N 06814W 6967 03157 0056 +093 +058 350031 032 025 000 03
125700 1824N 06815W 6968 03158 0050 +100 +055 343031 032 021 000 03
125730 1822N 06816W 6969 03154 0052 +097 +056 345031 031 021 000 00
125800 1820N 06817W 6967 03159 0051 +100 +052 341030 031 021 000 03
125830 1819N 06818W 6967 03158 0050 +099 +053 344031 031 022 000 00
125900 1817N 06819W 6967 03159 0054 +097 +071 343028 029 021 000 00
125930 1815N 06820W 6967 03162 0058 +095 +059 345029 029 020 000 00
130000 1813N 06821W 6966 03163 0060 +095 +058 345029 029 021 000 03
$$
;

[maxx9512]

The WV loop shows a stronger second trough dropping SE towards the SE US coast - good news for those of us hoping and praying for a recurve:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

P.S. Hopefully the satellite blackout is for just one image...

We shall see about the trof....it is August...

Delta, I agree but then look at Charley. The chances of that being strong enough I have to say also, it's AUGUST and it's rare. And also thanks for your explainations. You make things easier to understand.

[Mouton]

I'm not seeing west, NW with maybe more west in my opinion.

Last few frames maybe a more west wobble but to me it looks like a WNW overall motion, 277-280deg?...anyway, the extrap path from there seems to take it close but not touching DR on the northside. Some of the models are showing this path, others are more west so I would favor the outcomes of those to the WNW track which seems to put Irene east of Jax in closest point to florida perhaps around 80.5w and on a dangerous path for the area just south of Savannah as I don't expect much curving as the ridges seem almost contiguious at that time from from the Atlantic through Texas. Forward motion should be slow till it gains some latitude north of SC.

Given the time this storm will be over the supercharged gulf stream, this is a horrendous track for anyone from St Augustine north to the SC/NC border.

By way of history, 9 hours ago, I thought I saw a job into the Daytona area coming so this projection is a east of that landfall and no western jog. Whether it turns out to be a Francis of 05 is not out of the question and that solution rests with the extent of the ridge in 4 days time.

Of course, this is the ramblings of a guy with a keyboard and should not be taken as anything official.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through OB 15:

[ObsessedMiami]

BAM suites now magically making the ridge disappear...they're far east and avoid all of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.

For me, I think its time to stop watching the models for a bit and come back later in the day.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through OB 16:

[Frank2]

The NHC plots are now about 100 miles south of the current position, based on satelitte:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[Mouton]

BAM suites now magically making the ridge disappear...they're far east and avoid all of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.

For me, I think its time to stop watching the models for a bit and come back later in the day.

Excellent advice in fact it is keeping me from doing those preps I need to do now.

[Frank2]

The NHC plots are now about 100 miles south of the current position, based on satelitte:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[Aric Dunn]

whats funny, although the NHC will shift their track a little to right I bet money they are still way on the left side of the models. mostly becasue they know such sharp right turns rarely happen and in august even less so. With the trough not really digging and only making a weakness the chances of a more gradual turn is way more likely. similar to what happened with frances.. all the models were sharp recurve... to carolinas and frances just kept chugging wnw. then the trough ended up lifting out even more... all I can tell everyone is not to jump all over every model shift. its not healthy.. lol

[Aric Dunn]

The NHC plots are now about 100 miles south of the current position, based on satelitte:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

its only about 10 to maybe 20miles off the track... no where near a 100 miles.