ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[JtSmarts]

Some new Joe Bastardi Tweets.

Coastal Bend s should understand this is likely to be nr or over hurricane intensity.Strongest tropical cylone nr Crp since Celia (1970)

[cycloneye]

Some new Joe Bastardi Tweets.

Coastal Bend s should understand this is likely to be nr or over hurricane intensity.Strongest tropical cylone nr Crp since Celia (1970)

Off Topic=Did he sent a tweet about pre 91L?

[CrazyC83]

Of course Celia bombed out in that region too - any chance this could do so in the next 24 hours?

[TheDreamTraveler]

Some new Joe Bastardi Tweets.

Coastal Bend s should understand this is likely to be nr or over hurricane intensity.Strongest tropical cylone nr Crp since Celia (1970)

That's interesting, because for the longest time Joe was keeping Don just below hurricane strength at landfall. He never said it was impossible but it's interesting that he'd change his mind.

[ozonepete]

Some new Joe Bastardi Tweets.

Coastal Bend s should understand this is likely to be nr or over hurricane intensity.Strongest tropical cylone nr Crp since Celia (1970)

So he's changing his tune? That's not what he's been saying.

[Dave]

030
URNT15 KNHC 290142
AF307 0404A DON HDOB 24 20110729
013200 2341N 09108W 8429 01579 0103 +178 +127 184023 023 015 000 00
013230 2342N 09109W 8431 01578 0101 +184 +123 180022 022 018 000 00
013300 2344N 09110W 8429 01579 0099 +180 +140 178022 024 017 000 00
013330 2345N 09112W 8430 01579 0102 +178 +146 181024 024 018 002 00
013400 2346N 09113W 8429 01579 0099 +180 +148 184025 025 020 002 00
013430 2347N 09115W 8429 01578 0099 +180 +148 185026 027 021 001 00
013500 2349N 09116W 8429 01575 0098 +175 +154 189024 025 020 001 00
013530 2350N 09117W 8429 01574 0096 +178 +153 188023 023 021 001 00
013600 2351N 09119W 8429 01575 0094 +180 +152 189022 023 023 001 00
013630 2352N 09120W 8429 01573 0093 +182 +151 191021 022 024 002 00
013700 2354N 09121W 8429 01574 0093 +180 +155 198019 019 026 000 00
013730 2355N 09123W 8428 01574 0091 +183 +153 203019 020 026 000 00
013800 2356N 09124W 8429 01573 0092 +180 +160 198017 019 026 001 00
013830 2357N 09125W 8429 01570 0090 +181 +159 197016 016 027 001 00
013900 2359N 09127W 8430 01568 0090 +179 +159 189015 015 028 001 00
013930 2400N 09128W 8429 01569 0092 +173 +164 191016 016 030 001 00
014000 2401N 09129W 8431 01567 0091 +171 +168 191020 022 028 001 00
014030 2402N 09131W 8428 01570 0092 +171 +170 191021 023 028 001 00
014100 2404N 09132W 8429 01568 0090 +172 +167 190020 021 028 000 00
014130 2405N 09133W 8430 01567 0089 +173 +168 193019 020 030 001 00
$$
;

[djmikey]

Some new Joe Bastardi Tweets.

Coastal Bend s should understand this is likely to be nr or over hurricane intensity.Strongest tropical cylone nr Crp since Celia (1970)

Sorry....but what is nr? Nothern?

[gatorcane]

Of course Celia bombed out in that region too - any chance this could do so in the next 24 hours?

None of the guidance suggest this.

In fact the ECMWF/GFDL/HWRF all suggest some slight strengthening over the next 12 hours followed by noticeable weakening as it approaches the coast.

For example, look at the HWRF. Look how it weakens it when it is about 12 hours away from landfall.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[South Texas Storms]

vbhoutex you think Don will landfall near Corpus? Based on the latest satellite imagery I don't know if he will make it more north of South Padre Island.

[Tireman4]

Some new Joe Bastardi Tweets.

Coastal Bend s should understand this is likely to be nr or over hurricane intensity.Strongest tropical cylone nr Crp since Celia (1970)

Sorry....but what is nr? Nothern?

Near maybe?

[KatDaddy]

Thats strong wording coming Joe B with one day out...perhaps he thinks RI is on the way. With a small system over warm SST I dont disagree.

[lebron23]

vbhoutex you think Don will landfall near Corpus? Based on the latest satellite imagery I don't know if he will make it more north of South Padre Island.

It will probably make landfall close to Corpus.

[South Texas Storms]

Of course Celia bombed out in that region too - any chance this could do so in the next 24 hours?

None of the guidance suggest this.

In fact the ECMWF/GFDL/HWRF all suggest some slight strengthening over the next 12 hours followed by noticeable weakening as it approaches the coast.

For example, look at the HWRF. Look how it weakens it when it is about 12 hours away from landfall.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

That weakening would bring it slightly more northward right?

[CypressMike]

Some new Joe Bastardi Tweets.

Coastal Bend s should understand this is likely to be nr or over hurricane intensity.Strongest tropical cylone nr Crp since Celia (1970)

That's interesting, because for the longest time Joe was keeping Don just below hurricane strength at landfall. He never said it was impossible but it's interesting that he'd change his mind.

In his Weatherbell blog he's been saying since yesterday that this would be at or near Cat 1 strength upon landfall. In his latest blog he says it could wind up being a bit stronger than he originally thought, and is confident it will be a cane by landfall.

[lebron23]

AccuWeather's rainfall estimates...
http://sirocco.accuweather.com/adc_hurr ... 40x480.gif

[South Texas Storms]

AccuWeather's rainfall estimates...
http://sirocco.accuweather.com/adc_hurr ... 40x480.gif

I would be happy if that verified!

[lebron23]

AccuWeather's rainfall estimates...
http://sirocco.accuweather.com/adc_hurr ... 40x480.gif

I would be happy if that verified!

So would i, and the southwest side of Houston

[ozonepete]

Some new Joe Bastardi Tweets.

Sorry....but what is nr? Nothern?

Near maybe?

Yes, it means near.

[Meteorcane]

vbhoutex you think Don will landfall near Corpus? Based on the latest satellite imagery I don't know if he will make it more north of South Padre Island.

Even if it goes a bit south of Corpus, Corpus could still feel some of the stronger effects.