ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

What "dramatic curve"?

I don't see anything like that.

its supposed to approach the coast and then turn more nnw just prior to landfall

[GCANE]

PV anomaly still hasn't gotten to the surface yet.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2011AL09/AMSUPLOT/2011AL09_AMSUPLOT_201108220131_VGRD.GIF

Once the gets to the surface and WISHE kicks in with the high OHC water ahead; it could be all out much like development in the west Carib.

[Bocadude85]

If it were to affect South Florida, Hurricane watches could go up Wednesday afternoon. They would start feeling the affects Thursday. Today, tomorrow and wednesday are the only days to prepare. With the Hurricanes Frances, Jeanne and Wilma in my recent memory, the lines at the stores would be ridiculous and there will be a huge wait for gasoline. If I were living in South Florida or anywhere on the East Coast... Georgia and Southward, I would start checking my supply list and going shopping for a few things. It's going to get crazy out there. Plus you have to prepare your home as well.

Complacency has set in. Wilma in 2005 is the last Hurricane to affect our region.

I'd say get ready. I am in Sarasota and I am going to check my supplies today too.

"HURRICANE WATCH: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds."

Latest Discussion @ 5am says, "IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE
ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY."

If hurricane watches were to go up for SE Fl I would think it would be Tuesday afternoon and hurricane watches are issued 48 hours in adavnce.

[Aric Dunn]

I understand what you are saying but what would you want the EOC personnel down here to do now?
You have a storm that each forecast shows turning further and further away.
It absolutely could continue towards us and take a Frances-type track.
But most likely it won't.
I would hate to see an overreaction by officials to this which would further enhance the "it will never come here, they are crying wolf" mentality that ensues each time people jump through hoops for nothing.
Not to mention the expense of taking action unecessarily.
No, I agree with what the EOC people are doing at this point. Monitoring the situation and getting to act only if needed.

Most likely ? how do you figure? just the other day everyone was like it most likely wont go east of florida. sorry but you nor I or anyone can say anything like that for sure.

[RL3AO]

327
URNT15 KNHC 221330
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 19 20110822
132030 1804N 06815W 6967 03160 0053 +098 +063 341022 023 022 000 03
132100 1805N 06814W 6967 03160 0051 +100 +061 339023 023 020 000 03
132130 1806N 06813W 6966 03161 0050 +099 +071 338021 022 021 000 00
132200 1808N 06812W 6969 03158 0050 +101 +055 337024 025 021 000 00
132230 1809N 06810W 6967 03158 0050 +100 +052 338026 027 020 000 00
132300 1810N 06809W 6967 03157 0053 +096 +058 341026 027 021 000 03
132330 1812N 06808W 6969 03156 0055 +095 +056 343025 026 023 000 03
132400 1813N 06807W 6970 03153 0053 +093 +085 347023 025 029 005 00
132430 1814N 06806W 6967 03154 0056 +087 //// 343018 019 031 006 01
132500 1815N 06805W 6967 03156 0053 +091 +089 337021 022 021 001 00
132530 1817N 06803W 6969 03152 0051 +095 +057 336022 023 021 001 03
132600 1818N 06802W 6965 03154 0044 +098 +053 337022 023 021 000 00
132630 1819N 06801W 6966 03153 0052 +091 +058 330023 023 022 000 00
132700 1820N 06800W 6970 03147 0053 +090 +055 335022 023 025 000 03
132730 1822N 06759W 6967 03147 0042 +095 +061 339023 023 024 000 00
132800 1823N 06758W 6966 03148 0041 +094 +070 335021 022 024 000 00
132830 1824N 06756W 6967 03145 0046 +090 +076 326021 021 022 000 00
132900 1826N 06755W 6966 03146 0041 +092 +074 331024 025 022 000 03
132930 1827N 06754W 6970 03140 0031 +098 +073 325024 024 024 000 00
133000 1828N 06753W 6967 03141 0032 +099 +053 321022 023 025 001 03
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

If it were to affect South Florida, Hurricane watches could go up Wednesday afternoon. They would start feeling the affects Thursday. Today, tomorrow and wednesday are the only days to prepare. With the Hurricanes Frances, Jeanne and Wilma in my recent memory, the lines at the stores would be ridiculous and there will be a huge wait for gasoline. If I were living in South Florida or anywhere on the East Coast... Georgia and Southward, I would start checking my supply list and going shopping for a few things. It's going to get crazy out there. Plus you have to prepare your home as well.

Complacency has set in. Wilma in 2005 is the last Hurricane to affect our region.

I'd say get ready. I am in Sarasota and I am going to check my supplies today too.

"HURRICANE WATCH: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds."

Latest Discussion @ 5am says, "IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE
ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY."

If hurricane watches were to go up for SE Fl I would think it would be Tuesday afternoon and hurricane watches are issued 48 hours in adavnce.

Yeah If they are going up .. it will be tomorrow afternoon.

[SouthFloridawx]

If it were to affect South Florida, Hurricane watches could go up Wednesday afternoon. They would start feeling the affects Thursday. Today, tomorrow and wednesday are the only days to prepare. With the Hurricanes Frances, Jeanne and Wilma in my recent memory, the lines at the stores would be ridiculous and there will be a huge wait for gasoline. If I were living in South Florida or anywhere on the East Coast... Georgia and Southward, I would start checking my supply list and going shopping for a few things. It's going to get crazy out there. Plus you have to prepare your home as well.

Complacency has set in. Wilma in 2005 is the last Hurricane to affect our region.

I'd say get ready. I am in Sarasota and I am going to check my supplies today too.

"HURRICANE WATCH: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds."

Latest Discussion @ 5am says, "IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE
ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY."

If hurricane watches were to go up for SE Fl I would think it would be Tuesday afternoon and hurricane watches are issued 48 hours in adavnce.

I was just looking at that actually. 2am Thursday in the Central and NW Bahama's. That gives the people in South Florida even less time to prepare.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through OB 19:

[SouthFloridawx]

That leaves only a little over 36 hours until Hurricane Watches would be placed for South Florida, which is most likely going to happen. This system is expected to be a Catagory 2 and has a favorable environment for strengthening throughout the forecast period.

[artist]

For the EOC personnel to do that would be a major mistake because they would be going against the official pronouncements of the national center responsible for the very predictions they would ignore...hard to believe a bureaucrat would do that. I hope your worry does not become a reality.

it has happened here in Palm Beach county before... It was almost disastrous.

[Boriken]

I'm not seeing west, NW with maybe more west in my opinion.

Nice radar image, should continue to strengthen. I expect at leat a cat 3, maybe 4 when all is said and done.

Is that eye opening to the ssw? Or is it a function of the poor radar right now??

I think is opening cause I was standing at the very end of NW PR Ramey Base and it was quiet really not that much few gust not to impressive.

[SouthFloridawx]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 21 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-082

1. TROPICAL STORM IRENE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 22/12Z,18Z
B. AFXXX 0409A IRENE
C. 21/1045Z
D. 18.2N 68.2W
E. 21/1130Z TO 21/18Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 23/00Z
B. AFXXX 0509A IRENE
C. 22/1730Z
F. 24,000 TO 33,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 49
A. 23/00Z
B. NOAA9 0609A IRENE
C. 22/1730Z
F. 41,000 45,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 72
A. 23/00Z,06Z
B. AFXXX 0709A IRENE
C. 22/2315Z
D. 18.2N 70.9W
E. 22/2330Z TO 23/06Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 49
A. 23/12Z
B. NOAA9 0809A IRENE
C. 23/0530Z
D. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

[fci]

I understand what you are saying but what would you want the EOC personnel down here to do now?
You have a storm that each forecast shows turning further and further away.
It absolutely could continue towards us and take a Frances-type track.
But most likely it won't.
I would hate to see an overreaction by officials to this which would further enhance the "it will never come here, they are crying wolf" mentality that ensues each time people jump through hoops for nothing.
Not to mention the expense of taking action unecessarily.
No, I agree with what the EOC people are doing at this point. Monitoring the situation and getting to act only if needed.

Most likely ? how do you figure? just the other day everyone was like it most likely wont go east of florida. sorry but you nor I or anyone can say anything like that for sure.

OK, you can substitute "probably" for "most likely".

Neither word connotes anything "for sure" but I trust your forecasting judgment a whole lot more than mine!

I will say that a lot has happened since just the other day when the storm was a new TS, progged to go south of PR and through the core of Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba; but I hear what you are saying.
My response was to the notion that the EOC was maybe miss-handling this situation.
Do you think that they are?

Are you PREDICTING a Frances-type track?

[RL3AO]

665
URNT15 KNHC 221340
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 20 20110822
133030 1830N 06752W 6968 03139 0028 +102 +050 322020 021 024 000 03
133100 1831N 06750W 6966 03139 0025 +100 +056 320018 018 025 000 03
133130 1832N 06749W 6969 03134 0025 +099 +057 316018 018 025 000 03
133200 1834N 06748W 6969 03133 0028 +094 +068 316019 019 027 000 00
133230 1835N 06747W 6966 03134 0024 +095 +068 314020 020 026 000 03
133300 1836N 06746W 6969 03127 0025 +093 +066 308020 021 027 001 03
133330 1838N 06744W 6971 03122 0024 +090 +073 313021 022 029 000 03
133400 1839N 06743W 6971 03119 0018 +092 +070 315023 023 030 001 00
133430 1840N 06742W 6975 03112 0014 +094 +068 314024 025 028 002 00
133500 1842N 06741W 6965 03122 0008 +096 +072 315022 024 028 000 03
133530 1843N 06739W 6967 03114 0003 +098 +065 309022 022 031 000 00
133600 1844N 06738W 6965 03116 0003 +093 +076 310023 024 033 000 03
133630 1846N 06737W 6967 03110 9994 +098 +075 312025 026 034 000 03
133700 1847N 06736W 6966 03105 9992 +094 +077 312028 029 035 001 03
133730 1848N 06734W 6960 03106 9982 +093 +089 310028 030 038 000 00
133800 1850N 06733W 6962 03094 9972 +089 //// 308027 029 045 007 01
133830 1851N 06732W 6965 03080 //// +084 //// 315038 042 046 012 01
133900 1852N 06731W 6965 03072 9919 +119 +099 322044 046 050 008 03
133930 1853N 06730W 6966 03063 9908 +121 +108 320043 044 045 002 03
134000 1855N 06728W 6969 03048 9903 +115 //// 327035 041 033 001 01
$$
;

[gatorcane]

Look at that trough digging folks on WV loop...look at the clouds diving down over the great lakes. Looks potent if you ask me.

I can't see how the Bermuda High is going to hold on with that kind of trough. It's been a troughy summer for the East Coast of the United States that is for sure.

Kudos to the ECMWF for sniffing this out days in advance.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

[mascpa]

Going into our first meeting regarding Hurricane Irene. We will be prepared.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through OB 20:

[Aric Dunn]

Look at that trough digging folks on WV loop...look at the clouds diving down over the great lakes. Looks potent if you ask me.

I can't see how the Bermuda High is going to hold on with that kind of trough. It's been a troughy summer for the East Coast of the United States that is for sure.

Kudos to the ECMWF for sniffing this out days in advance.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

but look at the main energy the Low is lifting NE that trough will begin to lift soon. beside its not this trough that eventually models show turning it.

[gatorcane]

Look at that trough digging folks on WV loop...look at the clouds diving down over the great lakes. Looks potent if you ask me.

I can't see how the Bermuda High is going to hold on with that kind of trough. It's been a troughy summer for the East Coast of the United States that is for sure.

Kudos to the ECMWF for sniffing this out days in advance.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

but look at the main energy the Low is lifting NE that trough will begin to lift soon. beside its not this trough that eventually models show turning it.

I agree but this trough helps weaken the Bermuda High setting the stage for the next one to really weaken it....a one-two punch from these troughs.

BTW, thank the Texas death ridge as it is allowing these troughs to swing around the north side and down the Eastern CONUS. Pattern is nearly the same as when Emily was trying to approach the CONUS.

The long wave pattern has not really changed much.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Look at that trough digging folks on WV loop...look at the clouds diving down over the great lakes. Looks potent if you ask me.

I can't see how the Bermuda High is going to hold on with that kind of trough. It's been a troughy summer for the East Coast of the United States that is for sure.

Kudos to the ECMWF for sniffing this out days in advance.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

I dont see a strong trough...I see feathered outflow with strong high pressure and a dream intensification scenario or Irene for at least the next 2 days...