ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[cycloneye]

91L where are you?

Very soon will join this forum.

[HURAKAN]

[ROCK]

91L where are you?

Very soon will join this forum.

thanks Louis...I am already looking ahead...

at least this little guy will give some much needed rain to south Texas and central Texas.....the rivers are bone dry...

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 290352
AF307 0404A DON HDOB 37 20110729
034200 2441N 09226W 8429 01541 0028 +224 +180 189020 026 /// /// 03
034230 2442N 09224W 8432 01546 0046 +199 //// 186033 035 032 002 05
034300 2443N 09223W 8432 01544 0046 +202 +196 175037 038 034 003 00
034330 2444N 09221W 8429 01548 0051 +194 +192 165038 041 036 004 00
034400 2446N 09220W 8437 01545 0056 +198 +187 155037 038 037 001 00
034430 2447N 09219W 8426 01558 0058 +201 +178 157038 039 035 001 00
034500 2448N 09218W 8428 01561 0063 +199 +177 153039 040 035 002 00
034530 2449N 09216W 8429 01562 0065 +202 +170 149040 040 035 001 00
034600 2451N 09215W 8428 01564 0069 +197 +180 152041 043 036 002 00
034630 2452N 09214W 8431 01566 0073 +195 +183 145038 040 036 002 00
034700 2453N 09213W 8430 01568 0077 +193 +189 142039 040 034 002 00
034730 2454N 09211W 8431 01568 0080 +190 +187 142039 040 035 001 00
034800 2455N 09210W 8429 01572 0084 +192 +168 144041 041 033 002 00
034830 2456N 09209W 8429 01573 0084 +193 +179 143041 042 035 001 00
034900 2457N 09208W 8431 01573 0088 +188 +180 142040 041 034 002 00
034930 2459N 09206W 8429 01577 0091 +185 +179 142041 041 035 001 00
035000 2500N 09205W 8429 01577 0092 +186 +173 140040 041 035 000 00
035030 2501N 09204W 8430 01578 0094 +186 +171 142041 041 036 002 00
035100 2502N 09203W 8428 01583 0096 +186 +171 139040 040 034 001 00
035130 2503N 09201W 8429 01580 0095 +191 +164 138040 041 032 002 00
$$
;

[Kludge]

That's what I've been forecasting...once it got to Thursday evening and 25N....

Started to feel like I was in the woods all alone...naked. LOL [/quote]

There's an image that even drano can't scrub out of my brain...

"In My Opinion" :

As long as this buttclown storm stays SW of Galveston and stays relatively disorganized, it should sling a ton of moisture over SE Texas. Strengthening and pulling in feeder bands up until landfall and beyond are GREAT things....

[HURAKAN]

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon extrapolated the pressure around 1001mb. Although this time around winds in the NE quadrant were stronger closer to the center than before. I guess that's one good thing it has going for it. If Don ever wants to have a legitimate shot at strengthening he needs to maintain this burst. Otherwise he might have plateaued.

[NDG]

I guess the euro wins again, long story short. But though initially the euro made me look bad when I put a lot stock into its forecast of its vorticity going to go north of the Greater Antilles and into the FL straights, but at the end it stuck to its gun of the system making landfall in southern TX in the last few days and the shearing winds of the heat ridge, and so did I. Sorry that much of SE TX is not going to get much of the rain that the other models made you guys excited for a couple days ago, you will some showers tomorrow, but enough to make a dent in your drought.

[ROCK]

center has defintely relocated further south under the new convection....Dingbat could miss Texas all together!!

PW values will go up for a day but storms will be scattered. Feeder bands? What feeder bands? These are consolidated around the storm any more south and we wont see a dark cloud.


ugh..this is depressing...I need a xanax...I am done with Don...

[Dave]

756
URNT15 KNHC 290401
AF307 0404A DON HDOB 38 20110729
035200 2504N 09200W 8429 01583 0098 +189 +163 140039 040 032 001 00
035230 2506N 09159W 8430 01583 0101 +185 +164 140039 039 031 001 00
035300 2507N 09158W 8430 01583 0105 +182 +163 140040 040 032 000 00
035330 2508N 09156W 8430 01585 0106 +180 +163 142040 041 032 001 00
035400 2509N 09155W 8429 01585 0107 +180 +162 142042 042 030 001 00
035430 2510N 09154W 8430 01586 0108 +181 +157 144042 043 030 001 00
035500 2511N 09153W 8430 01586 0110 +177 +161 145042 043 032 000 00
035530 2512N 09151W 8430 01588 0111 +177 +160 145042 042 029 001 00
035600 2514N 09150W 8430 01588 0112 +178 +158 145040 041 028 002 00
035630 2515N 09149W 8429 01590 0114 +177 +158 146040 042 028 000 00
035700 2516N 09148W 8432 01589 0112 +181 +156 142041 042 028 001 00
035730 2517N 09146W 8429 01591 0117 +176 +156 142043 044 027 001 00
035800 2518N 09145W 8431 01591 0117 +176 +150 141046 046 027 001 00
035830 2519N 09144W 8426 01595 0118 +177 +145 142045 046 026 001 00
035900 2521N 09143W 8432 01589 0118 +176 +144 142045 046 026 001 00
035930 2522N 09141W 8428 01594 0118 +176 +144 145043 044 028 000 00
040000 2523N 09140W 8430 01592 0118 +180 +140 144045 045 027 000 00
040030 2524N 09139W 8429 01595 0120 +178 +144 141044 045 027 000 00
040100 2525N 09137W 8430 01596 0123 +175 +147 141043 043 028 001 00
040130 2526N 09136W 8429 01597 0121 +179 +153 139041 042 029 000 00
$$
;

[South Texas Storms]

center has defintely relocated further south under the new convection....Dingbat could miss Texas all together!!

PW values will go up for a day but storms will be scattered. Feeder bands? What feeder bands? These are consolidated around the storm any more south and we wont see a dark cloud.


ugh..this is depressing...I need a xanax...I am done with Don...

I agree rock. I'm so depressed. Don gave me so much hope just last night...

[ROCK]

I guess the euro wins again, long story short. But though initially the euro made me look bad when I put a lot stock into its forecast of its vorticity going to go north of the Greater Antilles and into the FL straights, but at the end it stuck to its gun of the system making landfall in southern TX in the last few days and the shearing winds of the heat ridge, and so did I. Sorry that much of SE TX is not going to get much of the rain that the other models made you guys excited for a couple days ago, you will some showers tomorrow, but enough to make a dent in your drought.

EURO is king...though it didnt see this real well...and might have won by default....showers wont even come close to a dent...ok maybe a small one. We are like 17in below normal for the year in Houston. In Dallas today, I saw road sign saying mandatory rationing. Insane....


I have got to stop getting excited over the GFS, NOGAPS and NAM.....I blame Ivan....

[HURAKAN]

[NDG]

I guess the euro wins again, long story short. But though initially the euro made me look bad when I put a lot stock into its forecast of its vorticity going to go north of the Greater Antilles and into the FL straights, but at the end it stuck to its gun of the system making landfall in southern TX in the last few days and the shearing winds of the heat ridge, and so did I. Sorry that much of SE TX is not going to get much of the rain that the other models made you guys excited for a couple days ago, you will some showers tomorrow, but enough to make a dent in your drought.

EURO is king...though it didnt see this real well...and might have won by default....showers wont even come close to a dent...ok maybe a small one. We are like 17in below normal for the year in Houston. In Dallas today, I saw road sign saying mandatory rationing. Insane....


I have got to stop getting excited over the GFS, NOGAPS and NAM.....I blame Ivan....

But compared to the GFS the euro did slightly better, at least it picked up its vorticity earlier in the week.

[Dave]

279
URNT15 KNHC 290412
AF307 0404A DON HDOB 39 20110729
040200 2527N 09135W 8429 01597 0120 +180 +152 140040 040 028 001 00
040230 2529N 09134W 8430 01597 0120 +183 +146 140040 040 027 001 00
040300 2530N 09132W 8430 01597 0121 +184 +142 141039 040 026 001 00
040330 2531N 09131W 8430 01600 0126 +177 +139 141040 041 027 000 00
040400 2532N 09130W 8429 01600 0128 +178 +136 141041 042 026 000 00
040430 2533N 09129W 8431 01598 0127 +180 +133 143042 042 027 001 00
040500 2534N 09128W 8428 01602 0126 +182 +133 144041 041 024 001 00
040530 2535N 09126W 8429 01601 0127 +182 +125 147041 041 024 001 00
040600 2537N 09125W 8429 01602 0127 +185 +132 147041 042 023 001 00
040630 2538N 09124W 8430 01602 0126 +185 +137 147040 041 023 001 00
040700 2539N 09122W 8429 01605 0127 +185 +136 147040 040 024 001 00
040730 2540N 09121W 8430 01603 0127 +185 +124 148041 042 023 001 00
040800 2541N 09120W 8429 01605 0129 +185 +117 149041 041 023 000 00
040830 2542N 09119W 8429 01606 0131 +185 +103 150041 041 022 001 00
040900 2544N 09117W 8429 01606 0131 +185 +112 148040 040 022 001 00
040930 2545N 09116W 8433 01603 0132 +185 +115 144039 040 020 000 00
041000 2546N 09115W 8426 01611 0131 +187 +130 147038 038 017 001 00
041030 2547N 09113W 8428 01611 0131 +190 +115 147038 038 021 000 00
041100 2548N 09112W 8428 01611 0135 +188 +096 147038 038 021 000 00
041130 2549N 09111W 8432 01607 0134 +189 +093 146037 037 022 000 00
$$
;

[NDG]

center has defintely relocated further south under the new convection....Dingbat could miss Texas all together!!

PW values will go up for a day but storms will be scattered. Feeder bands? What feeder bands? These are consolidated around the storm any more south and we wont see a dark cloud.


ugh..this is depressing...I need a xanax...I am done with Don...

Yeah, as if the LLC is following wherever the convection keeps getting pushed to by the mid and upper level winds.

[HURAKAN]

[Dave]

AF 307 VDM

000
URNT12 KNHC 290415
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042011
A. 29/03:41:40Z
B. 24 deg 42 min N
092 deg 27 min W
C. 850 mb 1465 m
D. 34 kt
E. 223 deg 32 nm
F. 304 deg 17 kt
G. 224 deg 42 nm
H. EXTRAP 1001 mb
I. 17 C / 1524 m
J. 26 C / 1517 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0404A DON OB 14
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 46 KT NE QUAD 03:58:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
;

[Rgv20]

Tropical Storm Warnings expanded for Deep South Texas.

TROPICAL STORM DON LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1054 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS EXPANDED FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN POSTED FOR HIDALGO...STARR...
JIM HOGG...BROOKS...CAMERON...AND WILLACY COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT INLAND LOCATIONS
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
JIM HOGG...BROOKS...STARR...HIDALGO...INLAND WILLACY...INLAND
CAMERON...COASTAL WILLACY AND COASTAL CAMERON COUNTY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
KENEDY COUNTY.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF
PADRE ISLAND FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER NORTH TO
BAFFIN BAY FROM 0 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.5 WEST. THIS WAS ABOUT 320
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...OR ABOUT 330 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-
NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM DON WILL APPROACH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND GUSTS
WILL IMPACT THE REGION AS DON MOVES THROUGH. STRONG WINDS AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST IN RESPONSE
TO DON.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE AROUND 12 AM CDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

TXZ249-252-253-290500-
/O.EXA.KBRO.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
JIM HOGG-STARR-HIDALGO-
1054 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

[Dave]

AF 307 - DECODED VDM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 04:15Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2011
Storm Name: Don (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 3:41:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°42'N 92°27'W (24.7N 92.45W)
B. Center Fix Location: 326 miles (525 km) to the ESE (105°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,465m (4,806ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the SW (223°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 304° at 17kts (From between the WNW and NW at ~ 19.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the SW (224°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 26°C (79°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,517m (4,977ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 3:58:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 3:58:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb