WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

[Chacor]

:uarrow: here's the recent one i could find

Looks like there's a dry slot to the north of the eyewall.

[euro6208]

Another storm that maintained its eye until landfall was Super Typhoon Zeb in 1998.

amazing but scary image zeb was analyzed to be a rival of super typhoon tip according to this presentation. the video presentation is great so you should watch it.

http://ams.confex.com/ams/26HURR/techpr ... _75465.htm

[euro6208]

lookslike muifa's eye has returned.

[WALL-E]

The CDO of MUIFA seems that is rebuilding now. lol
Its eye is becoming clear again.

[StormingB81]

Wow she looks very powerful again...wonder if it is going to get back up to super typhoon status again..or go higher ten what it was supposed to go after weakining..

[Ptarmigan]

Another storm that maintained its eye until landfall was Super Typhoon Zeb in 1998.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/storm_archi ... /ZEB4A.GIF

amazing but scary image zeb was analyzed to be a rival of super typhoon tip according to this presentation. the video presentation is great so you should watch it.

http://ams.confex.com/ams/26HURR/techpr ... _75465.htm

I read that Zeb had a central pressure of 872 millibars or less, which was based on Dvorak. I wonder if any weather stations in the Philippines recorded the central pressure of Zeb at landfall. If so, it would be the most intense on record. If Zeb hit a more populated area like Manila, it would be much worse.

[StormingB81]

Latest forevast has it coming now within 8 NM of Kadena packing winds of 110-135 knots

[KWT]

big change on the 12z ECM, this time it makes landfall MUCH further north. Not quite as strong by that point obviously but still a system that needs watching.

Comes close enough to the Chinese coast to require close attention.

[StormingB81]

big change on the 12z ECM, this time it makes landfall MUCH further north. Not quite as strong by that point obviously but still a system that needs watching.

Comes close enough to the Chinese coast to require close attention.

Still slams Okinawa though...

[KWT]

Yeah and slams is the correct word there as well..probably a solid 3/4 still at that point.

[phwxenthusiast]

I read that Zeb had a central pressure of 872 millibars or less, which was based on Dvorak. I wonder if any weather stations in the Philippines recorded the central pressure of Zeb at landfall. If so, it would be the most intense on record. If Zeb hit a more populated area like Manila, it would be much worse.

believe it or not, Zeb (local name "Iliang") isn't even on the top 5 strongest typhoons maintained by PAGASA... the problem with Zeb is that it made landfall in a particularly sparse area.. it's about 80km away from a major city--Tuguegarao, which probably had a weather station... and it was back in 1998 so PAGASA probably had fewer synoptic stations back then... in fact, Typhoon Babs (Loleng) which is only a Cat 4, which hit the Philippines just two weeks after Zeb, was included in the Top 5 list mainly because they had data from Virac Station which recorded a minimum pressure of 930hPa and a peak gust of 250kph...

[Chacor]

JMA is down to 90 kt at 00z, but is now forecasting reintensification.

WTPQ21 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 18.9N 133.6E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 020000UTC 21.5N 133.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 030000UTC 23.6N 131.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 040000UTC 24.9N 128.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[Typhoon Hunter]

That's actually a VERY nasty ECMWF 12z run for Okinawa. It has Muifa tracking very slowly over the island whilst intensifying. We're rapidly approaching approx. 72 hours until CPA. I'm packing my bags and recharging camera batteries today!

[Typhoon Hunter]

Just running through the different forecasting agencies and models and their CPAs to Okinawa at this point:

JMA 00z - still looks to track south of Okinawa by about 100km. Core destructive winds would stay offshore but would still give the island marginal typhoon conditions.

JTWC 18z - direct hit in 4 days 110kts gusting to 135kts.

CWB 18z - direct hit in 4 days (no intensity forecast)

HKO 12z - similar to JMA, looks like a harder turn and track south of Okinawa at 110kts (10 min winds)

KMA 00z - looks like direct hit with winds of around 93kts (is KMA wind average 10 mins?)

CMA (China) 00z - passing just offshore to south as a monster with around 130kts sustained (2 min average?). They still expecting it go sub 900hPa again!

ECMWF 12z - more or less direct hit on Okinawa as a slow moving and intensifying monster of a typhoon.

[Chacor]

KMA use 10 minute and CMA 2 minute winds, yes. CMA quite daring with that forecast, way more bold than even the JTWC is forecasting.

[RobWESTPACWX]

JTWC 18z - direct hit in 4 days 110kts gusting to 135kts.

..

Always remember in long range JTWC points towards bases, with Kadena and Okinawa there they are going to make a direct landfall, at this point I would go with JMAs CPA first..

[dexterlabio]

Is this about to undergo EWRC soon?

[weatherSnoop]

Just running through the different forecasting agencies and models and their CPAs to Okinawa at this point:

JMA 00z - still looks to track south of Okinawa by about 100km. Core destructive winds would stay offshore but would still give the island marginal typhoon conditions.

JTWC 18z - direct hit in 4 days 110kts gusting to 135kts.

CWB 18z - direct hit in 4 days (no intensity forecast)

HKO 12z - similar to JMA, looks like a harder turn and track south of Okinawa at 110kts (10 min winds)

KMA 00z - looks like direct hit with winds of around 93kts (is KMA wind average 10 mins?)

CMA (China) 00z - passing just offshore to south as a monster with around 130kts sustained (2 min average?). They still expecting it go sub 900hPa again!

ECMWF 12z - more or less direct hit on Okinawa as a slow moving and intensifying monster of a typhoon.

Great breakdown, thanks for saving us the research. Much appreciate the information. Stay safe on your travels

[StormingB81]

EWRC..again does that mean it is regaining the strength or weakening?

[Typhoon Hunter]

Thanks Chacor for clearing up those wind averages.

Dexter it would certain appear as if an EWRC is underway. Could this lead to an enlargening of the wind field and expansion in size. That NRL vis pic you posted kind of reminds me of Sepat back in2007.

Snoop - no worries, it's first time I've gone through all agencies myself for Muifa so thought I'd just share it here for those scratching their eyes and waking up here in Wpac!