ATL: IRENE - Models

[Ivanhater]

120 hours...back over water between Haiti and Cuba...it does show weakening people!

[KWT]

Is it more south than the 12z run so far? Looks like it to me...

It was a smidge south upto 108hrs then its pulled back onto almost exactly the same track again. Heading towards E.Cuba.

Ivanhater, yep shows weakening after deciding to strengthening it over 2000M mountions

[Ivanhater]

126 hours...approaching Eastern Cuba

[KWT]

May well travel up the most of the spine of Cuba again before emerging on one side or the other of Cuba...not sure which side yet!

[BigB0882]

That monster high in the Atlantic looks like it is further out there this time? Is it? Maybe that could open up the weakness further to the East and put the EC at higher risk?

[Ivanhater]

132 hours

[bigdan35]

Looks like Texas still has ridge hanging around.

[Ivanhater]

138 hours...off the Southern coast of Cuba

[CourierPR]

Is that low pressure dipping south out of Canada to the eastern seaboard?

[Ivanhater]

144 hours won't load again for me

[South Texas Storms]

Imo, looks GOM bound this run. Might even make it into the central Gulf. We will find out very soon!
Still south of Cuba at 144 hours.

[PTrackerLA]

Geez looks almost lock-step with Euro.

[Ivanhater]

Imo, looks GOM bound this run. Might even make it into the central Gulf. We will find out very soon!
Still south of Cuba at 144 hours.

Exactly like the 12z run so far....too early to tell

[Ivanhater]

150 hours..still off the southern coast of Cuba

[Ivanhater]

156 hours...in the Caribbean

[South Texas Storms]

Imo, looks GOM bound this run. Might even make it into the central Gulf. We will find out very soon!
Still south of Cuba at 144 hours.

Exactly like the 12z run so far....too early to tell

No I just compared hour 153 on the 18z and hour 159 on the 12z and 18z is more SW than the 12z.

[Ivanhater]

Now it is a bit more south

[bamajammer4eva]

18z 144 hr is probably 50-75 miles further west than the 12z 150 hr.

12z 150h
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F18%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=150&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

18z 144h
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F18%2F2011+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=144&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

[Ivanhater]

162 hours...strengthening in the Caribbean south of Cuba...should start lifting up soon

[Dean4Storms]

You certainly see @ 138 hrs the ridge north of it rebuilding as the trough lifts out leaving this behind. Looks like a Gulf problem with it this far south, weakened state and the trough lifting out.