ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[ronjon]

Another storm analog might be Juan in 1985 although it occured later in the year.

[Jevo]

18z Dynamic Model spaghetti



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[NTXwx30]

Forecasters nightmare!!!!

[Turtle]

Looks like 2 would head West while the rest would head East. They all seem to favor central/eastern Louisiana.

[NTXwx30]

I think the models will not get a full grasp on this till we have a surface low.

[ronjon]

LOL, looks like someone threw a plate of spaghetti at a wall.

[RL3AO]

A certain 'A' storm from 2001 comes to mind.

[maxintensity]

What effect upwelling has could be important. Warm water extends to great depths in the central and southern gulf. It's more shallow near land. Where it stalls, if anywhere, will be key.

[SouthFloridawx]

It does look like spaghetti lol.

[South Texas Storms]

LOL, looks like someone threw a plate of spaghetti at a wall.

[imghttps://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_93.gif][/img]

LOL. It looks like almost all of them stall it out. Then the question is whether it starts heading east or west after the stall. I'm really praying for west. The Consensus model (TVCN) shows it taking a track similar to today's 12z Euro which would be great for us in south Texas if it verified!

[TwisterFanatic]

Looks like we have consensus.

[Huckster]

What were the antedecent conditions before Allison - wetter or drier than normal?

I was 19 when Allison hit. I really cannot remember exactly what the conditions were like before the storm, but I remember that I had a thriving garden by the end of May 2001 here in Baton Rouge. I had nice watermelons growing, cantaloups ripening, beautiful tomatoes...then came the rain. And rain. And RAIN. It seemed like it was NEVER going to stop. Everything in my garden was dead and rotting by the time it stopped and we nearly lost our camp on the lower Grand River. The water rose quickly and our camp was spared by about a foot. Allison taught me it's really not about how large, how strong, or how hyped up tropical system needs to be to cause an unbelievable disaster, and with the tropics, things can change very quickly.

[underthwx]

can one of you pros summarize what you see with the latest sfwmd model....pls?..

[HurricaneBrain]

It makes me sick to see the dynamic models. I've been rain dancing all night. If the models verify, then enjoy the rain folks! Hopefully we get something from this.

[ajurcat]

Allison was not a one hit wonder. She stayed and left and returned. She was brutal.
I worry about the Frances type storm. We watched subdivision neighbors being rescued in air-boats from their homes. Our elementary school was a shelter. My sons & I made every piece of bread we had into sandwiches and took them to the school - these were friends and neighbors and classmates. Thankfully we are on the high side of White Oak Bayou.

[South Texas Storms]

Wow all of its convection has considerably weakened in the past few hours. It was looking so good earlier this afternoon. Maybe DMIN is affecting it?

[ConvergenceZone]

Convection is really dropping off. Has a long way to go yet....

Perhaps a depression by tomorrow night though if convection can refire.

[lebron23]

LOL, looks like someone threw a plate of spaghetti at a wall.

[imghttps://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_93.gif][/img]

LOL. It looks like almost all of them stall it out. Then the question is whether it starts heading east or west after the stall. I'm really praying for west. The Consensus model (TVCN) shows it taking a track similar to today's 12z Euro which would be great for us in south Texas if it verified!

TVCN actually has it dropping back in the gulf then headed NE toward New Orelans/ Mobile.

[South Texas Storms]

LOL, looks like someone threw a plate of spaghetti at a wall.

[imghttps://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_93.gif][/img]

LOL. It looks like almost all of them stall it out. Then the question is whether it starts heading east or west after the stall. I'm really praying for west. The Consensus model (TVCN) shows it taking a track similar to today's 12z Euro which would be great for us in south Texas if it verified!

TVCN actually has it dropping back in the gulf then headed NE toward New Orelans/ Mobile.

Really? I'm not too sure about that. It's really hard to tell though.

[Portastorm]

I think it's that 40 knots of shear blowing west to east that's cutting down the convection. Take a look at water vapor.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html