ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[chris_fit]

Huge shift EAST in track

[CronkPSU]

they usually come out 15-20 minutes before the hour...the 5 AM came at 4:30!

regardless, it is out, another shift to the right, looks like it hits around Georgetown SC...

[gatorcane]

Huge shift EAST in track

Not really, Florida well in the cone, wouldn't take much.....that is a MAJOR hurricane approaching folks

[RL3AO]

Irene ACE

Code: Select all

09L Irene   
45   Special
45   0.2025
45   0.2025
45   0.2025
45   0.2025
60   0.36
65   0.4225
70   0.49

Total  2.0825


[eastcoastFL]

Huge shift EAST in track

lets see it!

[CronkPSU]

projected as a cat 3 now eneteringthe Bahamas and through til landfall

[SouthFloridawx]

[tolakram]

M on SC, that should wake people up.

Copied image:

[RL3AO]

Hit NW point moving for a NW to SE pass



551
URNT15 KNHC 221500
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 28 20110822
145030 2025N 06841W 6951 03184 0079 +080 +073 081042 043 037 000 03
145100 2025N 06843W 6949 03188 0081 +080 +066 077039 040 036 000 03
145130 2025N 06846W 6950 03185 0078 +080 +065 077038 039 036 001 03
145200 2025N 06848W 6950 03188 0076 +083 +057 081036 039 034 001 03
145230 2025N 06850W 6941 03195 0078 +071 //// 084036 040 033 004 05
145300 2025N 06852W 6962 03172 0071 +080 //// 084035 037 037 005 01
145330 2025N 06854W 6942 03199 0077 +074 //// 080038 040 034 007 01
145400 2025N 06857W 6945 03195 0076 +085 +062 081036 038 031 001 00
145430 2025N 06859W 6963 03173 0080 +085 +057 083036 036 030 000 00
145500 2025N 06901W 6963 03173 0075 +089 +059 084034 034 /// /// 03
145530 2023N 06901W 6965 03169 0076 +086 +059 086032 032 /// /// 03
145600 2022N 06900W 6970 03162 0078 +085 +057 087033 033 029 001 03
145630 2021N 06859W 6967 03168 0078 +085 +058 092031 032 029 000 00
145700 2020N 06858W 6965 03171 0073 +090 +061 095031 031 029 000 03
145730 2019N 06857W 6968 03166 0067 +093 +064 095028 029 030 000 03
145800 2018N 06856W 6967 03167 0068 +090 +088 085032 035 030 000 00
145830 2016N 06854W 6966 03166 0069 +086 //// 084035 036 032 001 05
145900 2015N 06853W 6964 03166 //// +071 //// 079035 037 042 010 05
145930 2013N 06853W 6978 03152 0075 +079 //// 075035 036 042 011 05
150000 2012N 06852W 6964 03166 0079 +075 //// 078035 036 035 005 05
$$
;

[wx4tv]

Looks like another hurricane where I will be covering it and my wife and kids will be evacuating on the OBX.

Hope the rains put out the fire in the Great Dismal Swamp.


Not an official forecast, just an educated guess from a guy who has been in nearly 200 tropical cyclones while carrying a TV camera...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through OB 28:

[Extratropical94]

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. HOWEVER THE WINDS WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS AROUND 988 MB IN THE LAST
CENTER DROPSONDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70
KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. SINCE THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS NOT
FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...AND
THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE... THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND MAKES IRENE A
CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IN
FACT...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. IRENE IS BECOMING
A LARGE CYCLONE...AND BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND 160 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. IRENE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST...BUT
STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH IT IS
TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE CURRENT GUIDANCE LESSENS THE THREAT
TO SOUTH FLORIDA.

DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4
TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE
FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 19.2N 67.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 19.9N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 20.5N 71.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 21.2N 73.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 22.0N 75.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 25.0N 77.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 28.5N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 32.5N 80.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 67.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER
* ALL OF HAITI

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK THE CORE OF IRENE SHOULD BE PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AND REACH THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN PUERTO
RICO THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC LATER TODAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER
AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[SouthFloridawx]

Note that there is not a sharp curve to the Northeast during the forecast period.

[eastcoastFL]

i love that shift east, keep on moving.

[CronkPSU]

from the discussion...

the
official forecast calls for intensification...and makes Irene a
category 3 hurricane as it moves across the central Bahamas. This
is consistent with most of the dynamical guidance and in
fact...even global models forecast a significant drop in the
central pressure over the next two or three days. Irene is becoming
a large cyclone...and based on buoy observations the tropical storm
force winds extend 160 N mi to the northeast of the center.

Radar and reconnaissance fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving
toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at about 12 knots. Irene
is currently located south of a narrow subtropical ridge which is
forcing the cyclone on a west-northwest track. However...most of
the global models show the gradual development a large upper trough
along the United States East Coast. This pattern will induce a more
northwestward and then northward track through the forecast period
with a decrease in forward speed. Based on the latest guidance...
the official track forecast has been shifted to the east...but
still remains slightly west of the model consensus. Although it is
too early to be certain...the current guidance lessens the threat
to South Florida.

[psyclone]

that is a big shift east. even though i got flamed by a couple yesterday in the models thread for observing an east trend and stating that should it continue it would be good for florida...that's exactly what has been happening. unfortunately, this is a 0 sum game so to the extent that fl wins someone else loses...the bahamas and portions of the carolinas could get a crushing hurricane.

[Frank2]

The TWC might be right about the Carolinas...

It'd still mean pretty rough weather for us here, but the eye being about 100 miles to the east would make a BIG difference in what we'd see, because it would bring northeaster-type weather here instead of Cat 3 weather...

[Extratropical94]

Hm, advisory says 300 deg and discussion mentions 295 deg movement.

[Frank2]

I guessed at 295 tending towards 300 (lol) - perhaps that's what they meant...

Frank

[WYNweather]

Broward channel 6 is now say Cat 3 in Bahamas. Where are they getting that? We just canceled wed – fri dinner cruise on the yacht. Already feeling the affects.