ATL: IRENE - Models

[Evil Jeremy]

I can't wait for that G-IV tonight. But if it flies at 7pm, will any of its data make it into the 00z run or do we have to wait until 12z tomorow?

[WeatherEmperor]

Forgive my rudeness, but can somebody explain to me why the hell the 06Z GFDL continues to be the stubborn "west" outlier? Irene is clearly moving more north or "east" of the track.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[clfenwi]

I can't wait for that G-IV tonight. But if it flies at 7pm, will any of its data make it into the 00z run or do we have to wait until 12z tomorow?

Flight begins at 1:30 PM this afternoon, data will be in this evening's 00Z models.

[bucman1]

How seriously should the GFDL which shows a path through the Penninsula and the UKMET
be taken as these are Outliers? What do they see or don't see compared to the others?

[Evil Jeremy]

I can't wait for that G-IV tonight. But if it flies at 7pm, will any of its data make it into the 00z run or do we have to wait until 12z tomorow?

Flight begins at 1:30 PM this afternoon, data will be in this evening's 00Z models.

My bad, I thought I read 7pm somewhere. Maybe that's another recon, no idea lol.

[Blown Away]

The TVCN is farther east than the NHC track.. I would expect another east shift at 11am

The TVCN track iis only slightly east of where they have it now.

But yes, would expect a slight shift east but not a big one out of respect for the UKMET and GFDL

The 5am track was based on the 06z TVCN, so they didn't adjust the track E to match the TVCN at 5am.

[jdray]

How seriously should the GFDL which shows a path through the Penninsula and the UKMET
be taken as these are Outliers? What do they see or don't see compared to the others?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0859.shtml?

The ridge is the big key, ECMWF and NOGAPS break it down, UKMET and GFDL still see it

WTNT44 KNHC 220859
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

IRENE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
DESPITE ITS INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF PUERTO
RICO...AND A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN IMAGERY FROM THE FAA
TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR. ALSO...LARGE PATCHES OF DOPPLER
VELOCITY VALUES AS HIGH AS 75-82 KT AT 1000-1500 FT AND 85-91 KT
AT 2000-3000 FT HAVE BEEN INDICATED NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER WATER FOR THE PAST 2 HOURS...WHICH EQUATES TO AT LEAST
65-KT SURFACE WINDS. SOME DOPPLER VELOCITIES AS HIGH AS 72 KT HAVE
ALSO BEEN DETECTED AT 500-600 FT OVER WATER. AS A RESULT OF THESE
DATA...IRENE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2011
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

TRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WOBBLES IN THE TRACK OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS YIELDS AN AVERAGE MOTION OF ABOUT 290/10 KT. UPPER-AIR DATA
AT 00Z INDICATE 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE NOT CHANGED AT BERMUDA IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF IRENE REMAINS QUITE STRONG. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...WHICH WOULD ACT TO KEEP
IRENE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION OFF THE
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND JUST SKIRTING THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND ON TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON THE SPECIFICS OF HOW LARGE A
BREAK OR WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER FLORIDA
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT 72 HOUR AND BEYOND...WHICH WILL ALLOW
IRENE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND GFDN MODELS
ARE THE RIGHTMOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND KEEP IRENE
WELL EAST OF FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE UKMET AND THE GFDL MODELS ARE
THE LEFTMOST OF THE MODELS AND TAKE IRENE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA. THE GFS AND THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
PACKED BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND TAKE IRENE THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS AND JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY IS
THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE OUTFLOW
OF IRENE WILL CONVERGE WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
MID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 96 HOURS AND
BEYOND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONFLUENCE COULD MAINTAIN THE MID- TO
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AND LONGER THAN WHAT NOGAPS
AND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING...WHICH WOULD IN TURN KEEP IRENE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.

[NEXRAD]

How seriously should the GFDL which shows a path through the Penninsula and the UKMET
be taken as these are Outliers? What do they see or don't see compared to the others?

As mentioned in my previous post, I suspect the GFDL handling Irene as a weaker system owing to the model having the storm interact extensively with Hispaniola is playing a roll with its keeping the system farther west.

Also, most of the 00Z and 06Z model guidance took Irene through the middle of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Now that it appears considerably more probable that the storm will stay farther north and will perhaps only clip the Dominican Republic - or stay just north and offshore - the system is likely to maintain as a stronger system than prior guidance generally allotted. I'd expect this will play into some changes with the 12Z guidance.

- Jay
South Florida

[CronkPSU]

How seriously should the GFDL which shows a path through the Penninsula and the UKMET
be taken as these are Outliers? What do they see or don't see compared to the others?

could be a couple of different things...stronger ridge/weaker trough and/or weaker storm due to interaction with DR causing it all to go further west, those are all definite possibilites, the 0z models all had moved west and the 6z moved them back east, not sure why everyone has thrown out the 0z models as flawed

[WeatherEmperor]

How seriously should the GFDL which shows a path through the Penninsula and the UKMET
be taken as these are Outliers? What do they see or don't see compared to the others?

could be a couple of different things...stronger ridge/weaker trough and/or weaker storm due to interaction with DR causing it all to go further west, those are all definite possibilites, the 0z models all had moved west and the 6z moved them back east, not sure why everyone has thrown out the 0z models as flawed

I think this may be because Irene moved slightly further north than expected. I also think that the models responded to that movement and shifted slightly east. What I find interesting is that the 06Z GFDL that just came out, continues to stubbornly bring Irene more west compared to the other models. In fact, it brings it into South Florida while the others keep it offshore.

[johngaltfla]

Forgive my rudeness, but can somebody explain to me why the hell the 06Z GFDL continues to be the stubborn "west" outlier? Irene is clearly moving more north or "east" of the track.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Until the G-IV data is received, it would appear the GFDL is maintaining the ridge re-building faster to the West than the other models. It really isn't out of the realm as in 2004-05 it picked up hurricanes a bit better than the rest of them, especially with regards to the ridges and upper air patterns that moved the storms.

Keep in mind the output is only as good as the data input, thus why the G-IV data tonight will be crucial to the early morning runs tomorrow.

[SFLcane]

How seriously should the GFDL which shows a path through the Penninsula and the UKMET
be taken as these are Outliers? What do they see or don't see compared to the others?

As mentioned in my previous post, I suspect the GFDL handling Irene as a weaker system owing to the model having the storm interact extensively with Hispaniola is playing a roll with its keeping the system farther west.

Also, most of the 00Z and 06Z model guidance took Irene through the middle of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Now that it appears considerably more probable that the storm will stay farther north and will perhaps only clip the Dominican Republic - or stay just north and offshore - the system is likely to maintain as a stronger system than prior guidance generally allotted. I'd expect this will play into some changes with the 12Z guidance.- Jay
South Florida

In terms of a more pronounced turn to the north correct away from sfl?

[deltadog03]

Forgive my rudeness, but can somebody explain to me why the hell the 06Z GFDL continues to be the stubborn "west" outlier? Irene is clearly moving more north or "east" of the track.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Honestly the GFDL is not that far off from current movement...ya its a bit north of there right now, but its got the heading down...Its def. an outlier, but I have learned to not totally discount its solutions..

[WeatherEmperor]

Forgive my rudeness, but can somebody explain to me why the hell the 06Z GFDL continues to be the stubborn "west" outlier? Irene is clearly moving more north or "east" of the track.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Until the G-IV data is received, it would appear the GFDL is maintaining the ridge re-building faster to the West than the other models. It really isn't out of the realm as in 2004-05 it picked up hurricanes a bit better than the rest of them, especially with regards to the ridges and upper air patterns that moved the storms.

Keep in mind the output is only as good as the data input, thus why the G-IV data tonight will be crucial to the early morning runs tomorrow.

Will this data make it into tonight's 00Z runs??

[SFLcane]

Canadian also brings it fairly close to sfl. Atleast the 00z run.

[johngaltfla]

Forgive my rudeness, but can somebody explain to me why the hell the 06Z GFDL continues to be the stubborn "west" outlier? Irene is clearly moving more north or "east" of the track.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Until the G-IV data is received, it would appear the GFDL is maintaining the ridge re-building faster to the West than the other models. It really isn't out of the realm as in 2004-05 it picked up hurricanes a bit better than the rest of them, especially with regards to the ridges and upper air patterns that moved the storms.

Keep in mind the output is only as good as the data input, thus why the G-IV data tonight will be crucial to the early morning runs tomorrow.

Will this data make it into tonight's 00Z runs??

It should for most models as I understand it. With the regular recon missions plus G-IV data the 0000Z and 0600Z models should provide a better picture.

[johngaltfla]

Forgive my rudeness, but can somebody explain to me why the hell the 06Z GFDL continues to be the stubborn "west" outlier? Irene is clearly moving more north or "east" of the track.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Honestly the GFDL is not that far off from current movement...ya its a bit north of there right now, but its got the heading down...Its def. an outlier, but I have learned to not totally discount its solutions..

Delta, wasn't it the GFDL that picked up on rapidly intensifying storms in 04-05 better than the other programs? I seem to remember extensive debates on this board during that time period on the subject.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

awaiting the synoptic inputs to correct the model discrepancies by tonight's late runs.

Can we see now what the progress is of that trough coming down from canada is doing that is supposed to cause the weakness? There should be land observations to show us whether it is moving faster than progged, is stronger or weaker, is deeper of flatter, etc.

We are always so concerned whether the models are properly analyzing the initial position of the tropical storm. But just as important, are we paying attention to how accurately they are initializing the synoptics of that dropping trough that is so crucial to the end game of where Irene ends up coming ashore?

[deltadog03]

Forgive my rudeness, but can somebody explain to me why the hell the 06Z GFDL continues to be the stubborn "west" outlier? Irene is clearly moving more north or "east" of the track.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Honestly the GFDL is not that far off from current movement...ya its a bit north of there right now, but its got the heading down...Its def. an outlier, but I have learned to not totally discount its solutions..

Delta, wasn't it the GFDL that picked up on rapidly intensifying storms in 04-05 better than the other programs? I seem to remember extensive debates on this board during that time period on the subject.

I honestly don't remember....but, we ALL remember what it did with that famous "K" storm back in 2005....So, we shall see... I certainly think its too far west, but I did hear (last night) that the models where about 30DM too weak on the ATL ridge...So, we shall see

[Rgv20]

Canadian also brings it fairly close to sfl. Atleast the 00z run.

CMC has Irene riding up the coast from Miami to South and North Carolina border.

Its interesting to see that the 0zECMWF has full support of its ensembles in regards to track and timing of Irene thru 120hrs and the 6zGFS is very close with the solution of the 0zECMWF.