ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[KWT]

The ironic thing is the system itself may well yet make landfall in far south Texas...but most of the decent convection is heading towards Mexico...Texas doesn't seem to be able to catch a break...

[South Texas Storms]

That's exactly how I feel. We can't seem to catch one break in this drought.

[WxEnthus]

I haven't looked closely at images recently, but I don't remember seeing much actual banding before like it appears on satellite right now. Someone correct me if I missed a better presentation earlier...




Movement on GOES loop seems west-southwest to me... looking more and more like Don may miss being a U.S. landfall. I was rootin' for ya TX!

[Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.]

[beoumont]

I haven't looked closely at images recently, but I don't remember seeing much actual banding before like it appears on satellite right now. Someone correct me if I missed a better presentation earlier...
Movement on GOES loop seems west-southwest to me... looking more and more like Don may miss being a U.S. landfall. I was rootin' for ya TX!

I think the "banding" you are seeing is at the outflow level, not low level bands. This storm has been in an obvious bursting pattern for quite a while now.

The last few satellite pics. indicate one or both of two things: the overall motion has become more west and/or the NE shear has increased ,displacing the convection more to the SW of the surface center.

[jaguarjace]

Hey, just a little tip for those who are into NOAA's Floater imagery.
When you click any enhancement image, for example the RGB image of Don at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rgb.jpg , just changed "rgb.jpg" into "img/" so it becomes http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/img/ this way you have a whole list of images you can save and animate into a longer loop with any movie making software.

Some extended loops can be found here: http://www.youtube.com/user/TropicalArchive

[perk]

0z Euro takes it north of Corpus Christi.

needs to find the edge of the ridge if its going to do that...slow down and make the turn....not sure the EURO is seeing this for what it is....and I am a EURO hugger.....

I find that hard to believe,the euro has been the south leaning model from the start.Now all of a sudden it shifts to the north.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291103
AF303 0504A DON HDOB 08 20110729
105400 2749N 09131W 5706 04872 0138 +004 -046 127014 014 019 000 00
105430 2747N 09133W 5887 04607 0123 +020 -039 125015 017 018 000 00
105500 2746N 09135W 6065 04395 0146 +036 -032 124016 017 020 000 00
105530 2745N 09137W 6247 04148 0147 +051 -023 124018 019 018 001 00
105600 2744N 09138W 6420 03924 0149 +063 -014 126021 022 021 001 00
105630 2743N 09140W 6604 03685 0147 +077 -005 128020 021 024 005 00
105700 2742N 09142W 6774 03476 0152 +085 +003 134020 022 024 001 00
105730 2741N 09143W 6956 03255 0163 +090 +011 142021 021 023 000 03
105800 2739N 09144W 7118 03063 0156 +103 +019 152021 022 023 000 03
105830 2738N 09145W 7293 02850 0153 +112 +027 158022 023 022 000 00
105900 2737N 09147W 7472 02647 0154 +122 +033 148022 022 024 000 03
105930 2736N 09148W 7724 02364 0156 +139 +040 143023 024 025 000 00
110000 2735N 09150W 7956 02120 0164 +150 +046 144023 024 025 000 00
110030 2734N 09151W 8138 01929 0162 +162 +052 151021 022 025 000 00
110100 2733N 09153W 8334 01723 0164 +169 +056 149023 023 025 000 00
110130 2732N 09154W 8422 01632 0162 +174 +063 150024 024 024 000 00
110200 2731N 09155W 8429 01622 0160 +174 +069 150024 024 025 000 00
110230 2730N 09157W 8429 01621 0160 +175 +072 148025 025 024 000 00
110300 2729N 09158W 8430 01620 0159 +174 +073 147025 026 024 001 00
110330 2728N 09159W 8430 01617 0159 +173 +074 148026 027 022 000 00

Air Force plane going in to the storm, now at operational height.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291113
AF303 0504A DON HDOB 09 20110729
110400 2727N 09201W 8431 01619 0161 +170 +074 148027 028 023 000 00
110430 2726N 09202W 8432 01617 0161 +170 +073 150027 028 023 000 00
110500 2725N 09204W 8432 01620 0158 +171 +073 152027 027 023 000 00
110530 2724N 09205W 8430 01615 0158 +175 +073 152026 027 024 000 00
110600 2723N 09206W 8430 01619 0157 +175 +074 154027 027 024 000 00
110630 2721N 09208W 8430 01617 0157 +175 +073 153026 026 025 000 00
110700 2720N 09209W 8429 01620 0157 +171 +073 154026 027 024 001 00
110730 2719N 09210W 8430 01619 0160 +168 +072 154027 027 023 000 00
110800 2718N 09212W 8430 01618 0161 +165 +071 155029 030 022 001 00
110830 2717N 09213W 8430 01617 0160 +168 +069 154029 030 023 001 00
110900 2716N 09214W 8432 01616 0161 +168 +067 153028 029 024 000 00
110930 2715N 09216W 8432 01617 0159 +168 +066 154029 030 025 001 00
111000 2714N 09217W 8430 01616 0159 +170 +065 153028 029 025 001 00
111030 2713N 09218W 8432 01617 0157 +171 +065 155029 029 024 000 00
111100 2712N 09220W 8432 01615 0155 +172 +064 157030 030 024 001 00
111130 2711N 09221W 8430 01617 0158 +170 +065 154029 030 026 001 03
111200 2710N 09222W 8435 01611 0154 +174 +065 153030 031 024 001 00
111230 2709N 09224W 8429 01619 0155 +171 +065 149030 031 027 000 00
111300 2708N 09225W 8431 01611 0154 +168 +065 150029 031 026 002 00
111330 2707N 09227W 8433 01598 0136 +173 +065 147028 028 023 002 00

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291123
AF303 0504A DON HDOB 10 20110729
111400 2706N 09228W 8433 01600 0137 +173 +064 149028 028 025 000 00
111430 2705N 09229W 8425 01605 0134 +176 +065 147030 030 026 001 00
111500 2704N 09231W 8432 01598 0134 +173 +066 148031 032 026 001 00
111530 2703N 09232W 8433 01597 0132 +178 +067 147031 032 027 000 00
111600 2702N 09233W 8432 01598 0129 +180 +068 152032 032 026 001 00
111630 2701N 09235W 8428 01600 0130 +177 +069 153030 031 026 001 00
111700 2700N 09236W 8434 01595 0131 +175 +069 153032 033 023 001 00
111730 2659N 09237W 8425 01602 0133 +172 +069 153033 033 025 000 00
111800 2658N 09239W 8436 01592 0132 +174 +068 152033 034 026 001 00
111830 2657N 09240W 8426 01600 0130 +175 +068 154033 034 027 001 00
111900 2656N 09241W 8432 01594 0130 +176 +067 156033 033 027 000 00
111930 2655N 09243W 8429 01597 0128 +178 +066 156034 034 026 001 00
112000 2654N 09244W 8429 01595 0127 +177 +066 156034 035 027 001 00
112030 2653N 09245W 8431 01594 0126 +180 +066 155034 035 028 000 00
112100 2652N 09246W 8429 01594 0125 +180 +066 155034 034 025 001 00
112130 2651N 09248W 8431 01592 0122 +181 +067 154034 034 025 001 00
112200 2650N 09249W 8430 01593 0123 +181 +067 152035 035 025 001 00
112230 2649N 09250W 8428 01595 0122 +183 +067 154035 035 024 000 00
112300 2648N 09252W 8430 01592 0126 +175 +067 154036 036 022 001 00
112330 2647N 09253W 8433 01589 0126 +175 +067 152036 036 024 000 00

[GCANE]

Cooling cloud tops and heavy rain-rate. Don has responded very well to OHC-max and DMAX.

Tracking into a broad anti-cyclone with a poleward outflow channel.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291133
AF303 0504A DON HDOB 11 20110729
112400 2646N 09254W 8433 01589 0123 +178 +066 153036 036 024 000 00
112430 2645N 09255W 8430 01592 0123 +176 +065 153037 037 024 001 00
112500 2643N 09256W 8425 01595 0121 +179 +064 152037 038 025 001 00
112530 2642N 09258W 8428 01592 0123 +175 +064 152037 038 024 002 00
112600 2641N 09259W 8430 01591 0121 +176 +064 153038 038 024 001 00
112630 2640N 09300W 8434 01584 0118 +180 +064 154039 040 025 000 00
112700 2639N 09301W 8429 01591 0118 +180 +064 157040 041 024 001 00
112730 2638N 09302W 8428 01591 0119 +177 +065 159040 040 025 000 00
112800 2637N 09304W 8429 01589 0122 +173 +065 157040 040 025 001 00
112830 2636N 09305W 8434 01583 0121 +175 +064 156040 040 028 000 00
112900 2635N 09306W 8427 01591 0122 +175 +063 154038 039 026 000 03
112930 2634N 09308W 8433 01583 0121 +173 +063 151039 040 026 002 03
113000 2634N 09309W 8428 01589 0122 +170 +062 149036 038 029 000 00
113030 2633N 09311W 8429 01587 0123 +168 +061 148033 034 024 001 00
113100 2633N 09313W 8431 01582 0120 +168 +060 150034 035 019 003 03
113130 2632N 09314W 8437 01578 0123 +165 +057 157036 037 028 001 03
113200 2631N 09315W 8429 01586 0120 +170 +056 159039 040 028 002 00
113230 2630N 09316W 8429 01584 0117 +173 +056 159041 041 028 001 00
113300 2629N 09317W 8429 01583 0119 +170 +057 159040 041 028 002 00
113330 2627N 09318W 8433 01580 0116 +174 +059 159041 041 028 000 00

Nearing the center from the northeast, 41 kt at flight level so far.

[NDG]

Still moving WNW, S TX still looks like landfalling place, not MX.
Within radar now range now:

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291143
AF303 0504A DON HDOB 12 20110729
113400 2626N 09318W 8429 01584 0116 +172 +060 160040 040 029 002 00
113430 2625N 09318W 8430 01583 0117 +171 +061 160041 042 031 002 03
113500 2623N 09319W 8428 01587 0115 +175 +061 161042 043 032 001 03
113530 2622N 09320W 8430 01584 0114 +179 +062 164041 042 032 001 00
113600 2621N 09322W 8428 01584 0115 +176 +063 161043 044 031 000 00
113630 2620N 09323W 8432 01581 0112 +180 +064 159045 046 029 001 00
113700 2619N 09324W 8432 01582 0113 +178 +064 158045 045 027 001 00
113730 2618N 09325W 8430 01582 0113 +176 +064 159046 046 028 002 00
113800 2617N 09326W 8433 01578 0114 +173 +063 159046 046 031 001 00
113830 2616N 09327W 8431 01580 0108 +181 +062 159046 046 031 001 00
113900 2615N 09328W 8425 01583 0108 +179 +061 160046 047 032 001 03
113930 2614N 09330W 8436 01573 0105 +185 +062 161048 049 032 001 03
114000 2613N 09331W 8431 01577 0104 +185 +061 162049 049 032 001 00
114030 2612N 09332W 8428 01580 0105 +181 +062 161049 050 032 001 00
114100 2611N 09333W 8425 01581 0107 +177 +061 159048 048 033 001 03
114130 2610N 09334W 8433 01571 0104 +177 +060 159047 048 033 000 00
114200 2609N 09335W 8429 01573 0104 +176 +059 160046 046 032 003 00
114230 2608N 09336W 8430 01572 0106 +172 +058 161047 048 033 001 00
114300 2607N 09337W 8432 01570 0102 +176 +058 164050 051 033 000 00
114330 2606N 09339W 8428 01572 0101 +176 +057 164049 051 032 001 00

51 kt at flight level so far.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
700 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

...DON CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 94.3W
ABOUT 255 MI...395 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM E OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TEXAS COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO MATAGORDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DON.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST. DON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL LATE TODAY OR
EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL LANDFALL...WITH
WEAKENING LIKELY BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CENTER OF
DON.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TODAY.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS WILL RISE BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.

RAINFALL...DON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[mulley]

Looks like these 3 inch wide cracks at our place in SETX
will continue to get a tad bigger and deeper.
Don has come up way short ( south that is

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=2228170513991&set=a.1039638601436.70385.1539664152&type=1&ref=nf

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291153
AF303 0504A DON HDOB 13 20110729
114400 2605N 09340W 8433 01565 0096 +179 +057 164048 049 031 001 00
114430 2604N 09341W 8430 01566 0094 +179 +057 163046 048 032 001 00
114500 2603N 09342W 8433 01567 0093 +184 +057 167046 046 032 001 00
114530 2602N 09343W 8422 01575 0089 +188 +057 168046 046 034 003 00
114600 2601N 09344W 8429 01569 0092 +182 +059 168046 046 035 001 00
114630 2600N 09345W 8430 01564 0088 +186 +060 168047 048 036 001 03
114700 2559N 09346W 8428 01565 0086 +186 +061 168046 047 036 001 00
114730 2558N 09347W 8432 01559 0083 +188 +061 165045 046 034 001 03
114800 2557N 09349W 8433 01560 0085 +187 +062 164047 048 036 001 00
114830 2556N 09350W 8428 01565 0085 +189 +062 162046 047 037 002 03
114900 2555N 09351W 8432 01561 0085 +188 +062 162047 048 036 000 03
114930 2555N 09353W 8430 01560 0082 +185 +062 164045 047 037 001 00
115000 2554N 09354W 8430 01561 0082 +185 +061 162044 045 037 001 00
115030 2553N 09356W 8430 01561 0083 +184 +061 162044 044 037 001 00
115100 2552N 09357W 8430 01559 0085 +182 +060 163041 043 037 001 00
115130 2552N 09359W 8435 01553 0081 +183 +060 167040 041 035 004 03
115200 2551N 09400W 8429 01555 0086 +170 +058 170040 041 036 004 00
115230 2551N 09402W 8429 01553 0075 +181 +054 171039 039 035 001 00
115300 2550N 09404W 8429 01547 0065 +192 +052 171037 041 036 003 00
115330 2550N 09405W 8434 01542 0065 +190 +055 177036 037 037 001 03

[xironman]

NHC did a good job of explaining the Euro outlier, basically it decouples the system which allows the llc to go north.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291203
AF303 0504A DON HDOB 14 20110729
115400 2550N 09407W 8425 01548 0071 +176 +057 176032 034 040 005 00
115430 2550N 09409W 8431 01539 0071 +171 +057 174027 028 039 007 00
115500 2550N 09411W 8429 01542 0068 +172 +055 170024 025 033 008 00
115530 2550N 09413W 8434 01537 0069 +169 +053 174021 022 029 003 00
115600 2549N 09414W 8432 01538 0060 +186 +052 171021 023 029 003 00
115630 2549N 09416W 8425 01542 0062 +180 +054 177021 024 047 021 03
115700 2549N 09418W 8407 01554 0063 +169 +057 209014 019 032 019 03
115730 2549N 09420W 8432 01526 0049 +185 +059 266007 009 033 008 03
115800 2549N 09421W 8430 01527 0032 +205 +061 316015 018 032 005 03
115830 2549N 09423W 8421 01533 0033 +205 +065 321020 022 031 004 03
115900 2548N 09424W 8438 01521 0036 +205 +071 312023 024 032 002 00
115930 2547N 09425W 8426 01541 0038 +209 +077 309024 024 032 002 00
120000 2545N 09427W 8428 01538 0045 +200 +083 305024 024 029 003 00
120030 2544N 09428W 8426 01542 0048 +198 +086 298024 024 027 003 00
120100 2543N 09429W 8431 01541 0056 +195 +087 292024 024 027 001 00
120130 2542N 09430W 8428 01547 0055 +200 +087 286023 023 022 001 00
120200 2541N 09431W 8433 01545 0057 +199 +087 285022 023 024 002 00
120230 2539N 09432W 8429 01549 0056 +207 +086 294020 020 024 001 00
120300 2538N 09433W 8429 01555 0065 +200 +085 297018 019 019 004 03
120330 2537N 09435W 8429 01554 0065 +199 +083 305016 018 016 002 00

[TheEuropean]

Can someone else please take over the AF obs?

[NDG]

1003mb is the lowest pressure they find on this pass, it appearst to still be tilted.

2549N 09421W 8430 01527 0032 +205 +061 316015 018 032 005 03