ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[maxx9512]

Is the NRL site one of the first they change the invest name on? Usually to no name first if I'm correct.

[NONAME]

Is the NRL site one of the first they change the invest name on? Usually to no name first if I'm correct.

Yeah they would change it to noname if they would just go with a depression but if its a storm it would be changed to Emily.

[Extratropical94]

Observation 33...pass just W of the center

000
URNT15 KNHC 012136
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 33 20110801
212600 1528N 06140W 9756 00278 0071 +234 +212 047022 022 025 004 00
212630 1527N 06140W 9758 00275 0071 +221 +212 046025 026 031 008 00
212700 1525N 06140W 9762 00272 0071 +227 +211 032020 020 031 008 00
212730 1523N 06140W 9758 00276 0071 +230 +208 021021 023 024 013 00
212800 1522N 06140W 9760 00274 0071 +222 +207 023023 024 030 006 00
212830 1520N 06140W 9761 00273 0069 +236 +205 016021 021 025 002 00
212900 1518N 06140W 9760 00274 0068 +238 +204 005022 023 026 003 00
212930 1517N 06140W 9759 00273 0068 +240 +205 355024 024 026 002 00
213000 1515N 06140W 9761 00273 0069 +242 +208 349024 025 026 003 00
213030 1513N 06140W 9761 00273 0068 +242 +211 348023 023 020 002 00
213100 1511N 06140W 9761 00273 0068 +242 +214 342020 020 019 001 00
213130 1510N 06140W 9758 00275 0068 +244 +217 340019 019 015 002 00
213200 1508N 06140W 9759 00272 0066 +247 +220 333019 020 016 001 00
213230 1506N 06140W 9761 00272 0066 +244 +222 331019 019 019 001 00
213300 1505N 06140W 9760 00275 0066 +249 +224 331017 019 020 002 00
213330 1503N 06140W 9760 00272 0065 +257 +225 332014 015 021 001 03
213400 1502N 06139W 9757 00275 0066 +253 +227 326013 014 016 001 03
213430 1500N 06139W 9761 00272 0066 +254 +230 317014 014 012 002 00
213500 1459N 06138W 9760 00273 0067 +248 +231 315014 015 015 001 00
213530 1457N 06137W 9761 00273 0067 +249 +232 312015 016 010 001 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

probably going to cut in closer ...

[underthwx]

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HIGHER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE EVOLUTION OF THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL DETERMINE OUR
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE OVERALL
INTENSITY, BUT STILL TRACKS THE LOW TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA, WHILE
OTHER MODELS KEEP IT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OR EAST. THE LATEST
NHC/HPC TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM NEAR ANDROS ISLAND AND THEN TOWARD
THE NORTH NORTHWEST, REMAINING JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OVERALL MODEL
TREND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN TO PUSH THE TRACK FURTHER
TO THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
WITH SEVERAL FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS AND AMENDMENTS LIKELY NEEDED TO
THE FORECAST. STAY TUNED.

3P.M. Forecast Discussion-Miami Fl,

[ConvergenceZone]

Is the NRL site one of the first they change the invest name on? Usually to no name first if I'm correct.

You mean they would change it to your name?

[jonj2040]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[maxx9512]

Is the NRL site one of the first they change the invest name on? Usually to no name first if I'm correct.

Yeah they would change it to noname if they would just go with a depression but if its a storm it would be changed to Emily.

Gotcha, thanks

[cycloneye]

No renumber yet at atcf. Here is the link to that site so you can see for yourself when it pops up at the renumber section. aL91 has to be between aL90 and aL95.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[southerngale]

Let's try to keep this thread to models and model discussion. Thanks.

[artist]

Let's try to keep this thread to models and model discussion. Thanks.

That discussion was about the models, southerngale. Do you want us to keep all the local discussions about the models in the general thread then, right?

[cycloneye]

Updated Best Track

AL, 91, 2011080118, , BEST, 0, 151N, 605W, 30, 1006, LO

[RL3AO]

AL, 91, 2011080118, , BEST, 0, 151N, 605W, 30, 1006, LO, 34,

NHC is unimpressed. That just updated 6 minutes ago.

[fci]

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HIGHER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE EVOLUTION OF THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL DETERMINE OUR
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE OVERALL
INTENSITY, BUT STILL TRACKS THE LOW TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA, WHILE
OTHER MODELS KEEP IT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OR EAST. THE LATEST
NHC/HPC TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM NEAR ANDROS ISLAND AND THEN TOWARD
THE NORTH NORTHWEST, REMAINING JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OVERALL MODEL
TREND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN TO PUSH THE TRACK FURTHER
TO THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
WITH SEVERAL FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS AND AMENDMENTS LIKELY NEEDED TO
THE FORECAST. STAY TUNED.

3P.M. Forecast Discussion-Miami Fl,

Miami AFD tends to be pretty conservative and ignore most systems so this certainly shows that they see this as a potential issue. Tony's group up in Melbourne tends to talk the future and models (link to the forum..... ) more than their neighbors to the south

[Hylian Auree]

Ohhhhh, ramping up so quickly. Healthy-looking system right now with a strong, closed coc, it'd be ridiculous not to classify this imo.

[Extratropical94]

Observation 34


000
URNT15 KNHC 012146
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 34 20110801
213600 1456N 06136W 9760 00274 0067 +248 +232 313015 015 009 003 00
213630 1454N 06136W 9761 00273 0068 +249 +233 306014 015 015 001 00
213700 1453N 06135W 9760 00274 0069 +250 +233 304014 015 010 002 00
213730 1451N 06134W 9759 00277 0070 +250 +233 300014 014 014 001 00
213800 1450N 06133W 9761 00275 0070 +250 +233 300013 015 014 001 00
213830 1448N 06133W 9757 00279 0070 +245 +233 304014 014 014 000 00
213900 1447N 06132W 9759 00278 0071 +246 +233 305014 014 011 001 00
213930 1445N 06131W 9759 00276 0071 +245 +233 305013 014 013 000 00
214000 1444N 06131W 9761 00274 0070 +248 +233 300013 014 008 000 00
214030 1442N 06130W 9759 00277 0070 +250 +233 284014 014 005 002 00
214100 1441N 06129W 9758 00278 0071 +250 +232 278012 013 009 000 00
214130 1440N 06128W 9758 00277 0071 +249 +233 284012 012 006 001 00
214200 1438N 06128W 9761 00275 0070 +250 +233 282012 012 005 001 00
214230 1437N 06127W 9760 00276 0070 +250 +233 284012 013 005 002 00
214300 1435N 06126W 9760 00276 0070 +250 +232 288012 014 006 001 00
214330 1434N 06126W 9760 00276 0070 +251 +232 288013 014 006 002 00
214400 1432N 06125W 9758 00276 0069 +250 +232 295015 016 009 000 00
214430 1431N 06124W 9761 00275 0069 +250 +232 303014 014 007 001 00
214500 1429N 06124W 9761 00274 0069 +250 +232 306014 014 007 000 00
214530 1428N 06123W 9760 00276 0070 +250 +232 307014 014 008 001 00
$$
;

[KWT]

Still not upgraded, they may want to wait a little to make sure the whole thing doesn't decay again...it probably is a TS at the moment IMO...

[lonelymike]

Ship really doesn't do much with this system barely a hurricane.

[Florida1118]

AL, 91, 2011080118, , BEST, 0, 151N, 605W, 30, 1006, LO, 34,

NHC is unimpressed. That just updated 6 minutes ago.

Meeehhh...If their doing some much recon then it must be important

[gatorcane]

Still not upgraded, they may want to wait a little to make sure the whole thing doesn't decay again...it probably is a TS at the moment IMO...

Agreed, I think it should be designated Emily sometime later this evening or tonight.